How Good does Jaylon Have to Be To Make Up for it?

[BotchedLobotomy]

Anything short of a pro-bowl/all-pro type career would be a failure in my opinion.

 

[waldoputty]

It's fair expectation of a top 10 pick, and that's what Jaylon is w/no injury. We lose the year in exchange for possibly an elite talent.

Well, i guess I dont agree but it is a personal preference thing.

We took Sean Lee mid-2nd when he was probably mid-1st if uninjured.
He became a marginal probowler which is a very best case scenario.
We would have won the gamble if he became a steady starter.

We took Jaylon early-2nd when he was probably top 5 if uninjured.
If he becomes a perennial probowler, that is a very best case scenario.
I would be disappointed if he is not a multiyear starter - only 55% of 2nd rounds become multiyear starter.
One only would expect a perennial probowler if the players is top 5 pick.
Jaylon is top 5 pick with a severe injury - so some dropoff would be likely.
Returning 100% to the perennial probowler/generational player is in the 25% probability range in my books.

 

[waldoputty]

spotrac lists him as UFA after four years. Maybe that's incorrect based on details of his service...perhaps the site hasn't been updated.

I do see that we are only paying him 6.5 mil thru the contract, so if things work out and he can deliver...we get a hell of a deal.

I find it an interesting intellectual question. It's a bit like this:
If you couldn't have any sex for x number of years...but then could enjoy yourself in unlimited fashion with someone approximating the looks of Kim Kardashian or Scarlett Johansen.... would it make up for it?

someone stated the restricted free agency here.
hopefully this would be addressed.

 

[Risen Star]

No need for the snark. That's a separate transaction.

An extension is where a player gets big money....it should be appraised independently. There is no guarantee at all the player will stay with the club and for that reason, IMO...a player's draft pick investment should be focused on what he does during his rookie contract.

Wait. You're saying you should judge a draft pick's ultimate worth based entirely on what that player does on his first contract?

 

[Risen Star]

DAL saved 18m on the draft slot so if they have to Franchise tag him in year 5 they are still ahead

Hopefully it won't come to that and he signs a Lee like deal in 2019

Right, which is why you DON'T judge a draft pick on the first contract only.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I'm still waiting on the Mods to create a Jaylons Nerve Forum.

My advice:

Don't hold your breath.

 

[John813]

Seems to be the only guy out there saying that.
FWIW. I'm leaning towards that is correct

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Dear Jesus,

Make the off-season stop........

Not until the 7th of September my son.

 

[MikeT22]

They implemented a new rule recently that allows a team to sign a player on their roster to another contact. They're calling it an "extension".

And the "extension" will cost much more than the rookie contract, of which year one was wasted and year two will effectively be his rookie season coming off a major injury.

 

[Stash]

spotrac lists him as UFA after four years. Maybe that's incorrect based on details of his service...perhaps the site hasn't been updated.

I do see that we are only paying him 6.5 mil thru the contract, so if things work out and he can deliver...we get a hell of a deal.

I find it an interesting intellectual question. It's a bit like this:
If you couldn't have any sex for x number of years...but then could enjoy yourself in unlimited fashion with someone approximating the looks of Kim Kardashian or Scarlett Johansen.... would it make up for it?

That's my question as well.

Since he didn't play at all, does he still get credit towards free agency?

 

[T-RO]

He needs to contribute a significant number of snaps to be worth the pick. You compare him to all 2nd round picks not the hype he was to be All Pro then HOF first ballot.

But he's missed a full season of snaps already. So he has to deliver more snaps or more snaps of value to make up for it.

The risk is higher...reward needs to be higher.

And a guy at #34 is not regarded as a typical second rounder just like a guy drafted at #4 is not graded as a typical first rounder.

 

[cmoney23]

We get Jaylon for 4 seasons on his rookie contract. 25% of that is now spent. Jerry and the front office knew going into the selection that Smith wouldn't likely deliver anything in the first year of the contract.

So my question is...if we are only getting Smith for 3 years...that we can be sure of...and we made a significant sacrifice for the 2016 season in getting no production from that high #2 pick...how good must Smith be to make up for it...from a value standpoint?

I look at it a different way, I look at it from the standpoint of who else, realistically, could we have drafted at that same spot and then compare them going forward. I look at a few guys.

Myles Jack
Noah Spence
Reggie Ragland

I look at those three, because they all were selected shortly after Smith, all would have fit a need for us. Lets compare Smith to them. And See.

 

[dogunwo]

Not exactly.
Jaylon has been performing ancient chinese secret twitter torture on all of us.
So I was say he needs to be exceed the typical bar for a high 2nd round pick.

#Blessed

 

[aikemirv]

We get Jaylon for 4 seasons on his rookie contract. 25% of that is now spent. Jerry and the front office knew going into the selection that Smith wouldn't likely deliver anything in the first year of the contract.

So my question is...if we are only getting Smith for 3 years...that we can be sure of...and we made a significant sacrifice for the 2016 season in getting no production from that high #2 pick...how good must Smith be to make up for it...from a value standpoint?

Next years first is worth this years 2nd... Isn't that the line that I have always heard? If so then if he plays like he is projected then his "worth" is there from a pick perspective. From a contract perspective a lot of time you negotiate before your deal is up anyway so I think the point is moot.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

this is the way I think of it:
25% of getting probowler
25% of getting starter
50% of getting nothing or marginal player
Personally, that is a high 2nd round pick well spent - particularly when you compare that to the stats i posed earlier.

97% of statistics are completely made up.

 

[T-RO]

Wait. You're saying you should judge a draft pick's ultimate worth based entirely on what that player does on his first contract?

When a guy enters his second contract he gets deep into your salary cap. At that point there is a handoff from draft pick investment to salary cap investment.

The accounting jumps from one category to another.

During the rookie contract the monetary investment is low...the pick itself is the real investment.

 

[TheCount]

Right, which is why you DON'T judge a draft pick on the first contract only.

What? Has the 3 year rule become a 6 year rule while I wasn't looking?

 

[T-RO]

97% of statistics are completely made up.

He wasn't posting statistics. It's just a way of placing the odds.

 

[waldoputty]

I look at it a different way, I look at it from the standpoint of who else, realistically, could we have drafted at that same spot and then compare them going forward. I look at a few guys.

Myles Jack
Noah Spence
Reggie Ragland

I look at those three, because they all were selected shortly after Smith, all would have fit a need for us. Lets compare Smith to them. And See.

i dont think noah spence was on the board probably due to off-the-field issues.

 

[Nightman]

When a guy enters his second contract he gets deep into your salary cap. At that point there is a handoff from draft pick investment to salary cap investment.

The accounting jumps from one category to another.

During the rookie contract the monetary investment is low...the pick itself is the real investment.

But the Home team has huge advantage in getting the second contract, most never get to UFA before signing that second deal

I still look it as trading #34 last year for a top 5 pick this year.....we lose a year but save a ton of money

Plus the year wasn't a waste for Jaylon......he was working out with the team, going to meetings and hanging with the guys in Frisco instead of South Bend......that is huge