How I would rank a D

[burmafrd]

First never count points given up by ST or if their D runs a pick or fumble back for 6. Count only the points the D gives up. Same with yards. You add yds and pts up for part of it; then 3rd down conversion %; then red zone TD %. You add all that together and come out with a D ranking.

 

[Temo]

Or: http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef

 

[burmafrd]

an arguement can be made about being too in love with numbers.

 

[MONT17]

I would give extra points to a D that can hold a team to a FG or without points when there is a turnover on the minus side and more for turnover in the redzone... thats true Defense

 

[Temo]

an arguement can be made about being too in love with numbers.

Sure, but if you're going to "fix" defensive ranking by numbers, you could do it the right way.

 

[burmafrd]

and you are so sure their's is the right way?

 

[Temo]

and you are so sure their's is the right way?

Good question. The methodology (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods) makes more sense to me than anything else people have tried to invent and it has been proven predictive of future success.

 

[Established1971]

First never count points given up by ST or if their D runs a pick or fumble back for 6. Count only the points the D gives up. Same with yards. You add yds and pts up for part of it; then 3rd down conversion %; then red zone TD %. You add all that together and come out with a D ranking.

I like it

 

[CATCH17]

We're 22nd in defense?

The stats do lie.

 

[JD_KaPow]

First never count points given up by ST or if their D runs a pick or fumble back for 6. Count only the points the D gives up. Same with yards. You add yds and pts up for part of it; then 3rd down conversion %; then red zone TD %. You add all that together and come out with a D ranking.

You're adding yards and points? The points will wash out. And then you're adding percentages? Those will wash out too.

an arguement can be made about being too in love with numbers.

And yet you propose to randomly add numbers that aren't even of the same order of magnitude or level of importance.

We're 22nd in defense?

The stats do lie.

You think we're better? Or worse?

 

[Pukindog]

First never count points given up by ST or if their D runs a pick or fumble back for 6. Count only the points the D gives up. Same with yards. You add yds and pts up for part of it; then 3rd down conversion %; then red zone TD %. You add all that together and come out with a D ranking.

How about running that formula on all 32 teams and post the rankings. Could be interesting.

 

[craig71]

There is not a ranking system in existence that is not considered subjective by somebody.About the only thing one can do is look at game by game numbers combined with the game tape to really see how a defense is performing.To me a game by game evaluation shows trends rather than using averages which only represent an extreme high or low.

Craig

 

[The Panch]

The only 3 stats I care about in a defense are turnovers, 3rd down,and most importantly, points. Even moreso, in critical moments. Our defense has racked up alot of sacks in recent years and had some big moments, but there have been plenty where Ware and whole front 7 did nothing in late game situations.

I would give extra points to a D that can hold a team to a FG or without points when there is a turnover on the minus side and more for turnover in the redzone... thats true Defense

This too.

 

[Temo]

The only 3 stats I care about in a defense are turnovers, 3rd down,and most importantly, points. Even moreso, in critical moments. Our defense has racked up alot of sacks in recent years and had some big moments, but there have been plenty where Ware and whole front 7 did nothing in late game situations.



This too.

Problems with your stats:

- Research has shown that interceptions are more the fault of the offense than the credit of the defense. In other words, good defenders can catch more picks, but they have to be thrown by bad offenses first.

- Research has also shown that fumble recovery is random. IE, once the ball hits the ground, either team has a 50% chance to recover. Of course, causing the fumble is a skill and not random.

- Using points negates the importance of field position. If your offense or special teams are constantly giving you bad field position for your defense, you're going to give up more points.

- Not sure that any defense is proven to consistently do better on 3rd down then they do on other downs. In other words, if you're failing on 3rd down, that's probably because you're failing on 1st and 2nd down too.

 

[BaybeeJay]

Problems with your stats:

- Not sure that any defense is proven to consistently do better on 3rd down then they do on other downs. In other words, if you're failing on 3rd down, that's probably because you're failing on 1st and 2nd down too.

What do you mean by "better"? I guess I am wondering how you evaluate a teams productivity on a specific down.

 

[The Panch]

Problems with your stats:

- Research has shown that interceptions are more the fault of the offense than the credit of the defense. In other words, good defenders can catch more picks, but they have to be thrown by bad offenses first.

- Research has also shown that fumble recovery is random. IE, once the ball hits the ground, either team has a 50% chance to recover. Of course, causing the fumble is a skill and not random.

- Using points negates the importance of field position. If your offense or special teams are constantly giving you bad field position for your defense, you're going to give up more points.

- Not sure that any defense is proven to consistently do better on 3rd down then they do on other downs. In other words, if you're failing on 3rd down, that's probably because you're failing on 1st and 2nd down too.

Newsflash: If you dont force turnovers, you're not a good defense. Turnovers can kill a drive and make up for bad field position cause of special teams or the offense. It's called reading the QB's eyes, disguising coverage, getting pressure to force a bad pass, knowing a QBs tendancies. I dont need "research" to show me that part of being a good defense is forcing turnovers. It's common sense that when you collapse the line, you're gonna force "bad offense".





Unless you have one of the worst special teams and worst offenses in the league, giving up points and forcing turnovers is part of what makes you a good Defense.