How Long Would Jimmy Johnson Have Kept Emmitt Smith?

[gjkoeppen]

I would have to agree to all you say, jimmy would have not resigned smith to that long deal, and probably would not have went after deion.
letting all those guys go u listed is crazy.

Except most of those players left before Emmitt's last contract. The biggest loss of players was due to the year the cap started which was a couple years before Emmitt's signed his last contract.
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[Reverend Conehead]

Johnson would have kept Smith as long as Johnson was HC, but Johnson wouldn't have been coach that long. If Jerry hadn't ousted him, if they got along perfectly, Jimmy still probably wouldn't have coached more than three additional years or so.

 

[DFWJC]

Jimmy got out right when the salary cap was just beginning.
He was fortunate in that regard.

Any of you comparing Belichick are forgetting that New England does not pay top dollar for ANY aging player, regardless of how good they are.
They also don't pay absolute top dollar to any player, young or old.

 

[Thomas82]

If Jimmy hadn't left, everything would have played out differently.
Emmitt Smith might have gained 20,000 rushing yards.
Ernie Zampesie would not have destroyed the offensive philosophy and discipline instilled by Johnson, and Smith would have had plenty of room to run. Zampesie's influence is what ruined Jason Garrett's approach to coaching, the reason the offense stopped producing, and why Smith struggled.
Under Johnson I think Smith would have been around and still productive until 2000, and then retired.

I agree with most of this. I believe Emmitt would have probably still been a Cowboy until around 2002.

 

[Thomas82]

Emmitt actually signed the contract in 1996:

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-xpm-1996-08-13-9608130223-story.html

 

[plasticman]

I think you are reading this all wrong.

Jimmy was extremely loyal to his tight circle which included star players.
I don't think he was different than Jerry here and in fact a lot of what Jerry picked up in this area he got from Jimmy.
He went to those players with open discussions about what to do to replace Jimmy and win afterwards.

Jimmy never had to give a crap about a salary cap so it wasn't really his mindset.
He wanted Jerry to pay the guys the going rate.

The salary cap is designed so you bottom out after winning 3 titles in 4 years. It did it's job.
NE has been able to keep atop the salary cap because they have arguably the best coach in NFL history and a HOF QB.
But their time is coming.

Of course Jimmy was "loyal", it was 1993 and Emmitt had averaged over 1600 yards a carry over the past three seasons as well as around 55 receptions. I'm talking about Emmitt's third contract before the 1997 season.

At that point, his results would begin to decline as was true for any RB with that many carries over 7 seasons. I realize his decline would be equal to most RB's best seasons but those other RB's weren't getting Emmitt's 7 year contract with that kind of money.

So why didn't the Patriots bottom out after three seasons? That's because Belicek took a business approach to the cap and didn't let his feelings towards the players dictate the contracts. He lost many good players but he was able to maintain through excellent cap management. I am saying that Jimmy would have done the same.

 

[jterrell]

Of course Jimmy was "loyal", it was 1993 and Emmitt had averaged over 1600 yards a carry over the past three seasons as well as around 55 receptions. I'm talking about Emmitt's third contract before the 1997 season.

At that point, his results would begin to decline as was true for any RB with that many carries over 7 seasons. I realize his decline would be equal to most RB's best seasons but those other RB's weren't getting Emmitt's 7 year contract with that kind of money.

So why didn't the Patriots bottom out after three seasons? That's because Belicek took a business approach to the cap and didn't let his feelings towards the players dictate the contracts. He lost many good players but he was able to maintain through excellent cap management. I am saying that Jimmy would have done the same.

There's literally zero reason to believe what you do other than you choose to.
Jimmy worked with the same staff in Dallas he had in college.
He went to work in the NFL for an old "oil buddy" and he broke that news to Michael Irvin the day Dallas drafted him a year before the deal was even announced.

Jimmy wanted out of Dallas largely because he didn't want the challenge of re-building the roster in Dallas.
Jimmy didn't know college kids coming out anymore so he wasn't looking to draft guys to replace his stars.

If a younger player beat out his guy with better play sure, he'd move on. But he wasn't managing a cap and cutting guys who were better simply based on cost like BB does.

Dallas didn't have a better back than Emmitt. They traded Emmitt then spent a year with stop gap Hambrick who was worse than Emmitt.
Then after that year they drafted Julius Jones.

Emmitt has just under 1000 yards the year he retired. That was equivalent to Hambrick's career best season.

If an energized Jimmy had been draftting perhaps that would have changed things. But again that feels a bit of a stretch as his drafting in Miami was shoddy at best and he burned out in like 2 years.

 

[plasticman]

Gee he gained 40% of his total career yardage after 1997 which was less that half of the years he played in the NFL. The only 3 years he really was really productive was his rookie season and the last 2 he spent with the cardinals. His last season with the Cowboys missed 1000 yards by 25 yards but also had the lowest number of carries except for hos rookie season. The Cowboys paid Emmitt to make the defense account for him which they did and to get some yardage. Like I said it's your opinion but I doubt that you'll convince many people that the Cowboys should have released Emmitt in 1996 or 1997. They still had the triplets and so most thought that with a little help and luck they would win more Super Bowls. I'll bet that most would say the chances would have dropped emensly had Emmitt been released. At this point we should just leave it at we disagree.
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You are making my point for me.

First, the contract took place before the 1997 season. from 1990 to 1996 Emmitt completed 55.4% of his total yardage. This was a 7 year period at an average of 1451 per season.

From 1997 to 2004, he completed 44.6% of his total yardage, an 8 year period with an average of 1024 per season. Injuries began to play a part in his totals which is to be expected of a RB in their 14th season.

Even if I only considered his Cowboy career, Emmitt averaged 1167 yards a season after the contract. It's very good but not enough to justify the amounts he was paid in that 3rd contract.

Emmitt was paid to make defenses account for him? After 1996, how did that work out?

Here is the Cowboy's offensive ranks from 1997 to 2002

1997 20th
1999 16th
2000 25th
2001 29th
2002 30th

A response might be that, well, he was all the Cowboys had. Again, that's my point. Why did they not have more? It's because the contracts of Emmitt, Deion, and others had fractured the cap to the point where they couldn't afford much more.

This was not Emmitt's fault. I am not criticizing Emmitt in any way, I am just pointing out certain facts pertaining to his results.

It's very normal, especially for an NFL RB, to reduce his productivity after a certain point in his career. In his defense, the average RB would have retired long before he was still putting out thousand yard seasons. I'm just saying those thousand yard seasons didn't justify the contract at that particular point of his career.

 

[plasticman]

There's literally zero reason to believe what you do other than you choose to.
Jimmy worked with the same staff in Dallas he had in college.
He went to work in the NFL for an old "oil buddy" and he broke that news to Michael Irvin the day Dallas drafted him a year before the deal was even announced.

Jimmy wanted out of Dallas largely because he didn't want the challenge of re-building the roster in Dallas.
Jimmy didn't know college kids coming out anymore so he wasn't looking to draft guys to replace his stars.

If a younger player beat out his guy with better play sure, he'd move on. But he wasn't managing a cap and cutting guys who were better simply based on cost like BB does.

Dallas didn't have a better back than Emmitt. They traded Emmitt then spent a year with stop gap Hambrick who was worse than Emmitt.
Then after that year they drafted Julius Jones.

Emmitt has just under 1000 yards the year he retired. That was equivalent to Hambrick's career best season.

If an energized Jimmy had been draftting perhaps that would have changed things. But again that feels a bit of a stretch as his drafting in Miami was shoddy at best and he burned out in like 2 years.

This has nothing to do with Jimmy leaving. This is simply an exercise in the philosophy of managing a team with a cap.

If the Cowboys had released Emmitt then they would have needed another back and they were available in the draft, quality backs in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

And you are very wrong to think that Johnson didn't know the kids coming out. The guy that discovered Larry Allen worked for Jimmy in college. Jimmy most certainly understood talent better then Jerry and would have been far more knowledgeable when it came to prioritizing them for a salary cap.

Jimmy Johnson did not draft Hambrick so you are making my point.

 

[dckid]

Jimmy Johnson wasn't like Jerry Jones, he was more bottom line. Jimmy was more like Belicek. He appreciated his players but he would have handled the salary cap far differently.

Jerry used contracts to reward players and I believe he was influenced by the star power. At the time, I think he considered a player's ability to attract fans when he should have focused entirely on a players future contribution to the success of a team.

Having been a college recruiter and coach for a championship team, Jimmy Johnson placed no value on sentiment. We are talking about a guy who divorced his wife because he knew he couldn't commit the time to both football and a marriage.

Before the 97 season, Jerry Jones signed Emmitt Smith to a huge 7 year contract. Emmitt had been in the league for 7 seasons. He was 28.

Two years prior, Jerry signed Deion Sanders to an historic contract. The repercussions of both contracts was the departure of over a dozen players that had contributed to those championships. It gutted the defense, the LB 's in particular.

They lost several players that had been in the league only 3 to 4 years and were in their prime, guys like Robert Jones, Dixon Edwards, Russel Maryland, Kevin Williams , Darrin Smith, Kenneth Gant, Godfrey Myles, and Brock Marion. Most of these guys were 1st, 2nd, and 3rd draft choices. Some of them even went on to make Pro Bowls for other teams.

It is my opinion, of course, but I believe Jimmy would have let Emmitt walk after the 96 season. He may have then gone to the draft to get someone like Tiki Barber or Corey Dillon. He liked speed so perhaps Barber would have been the pick.

From 1992 to 1996, the Cowboys were a top 5 team in preventing opponent scoring. They were a top ten team in turnover margin.

In 1997, just two seasons after winning the Super Bowl, the Cowboys had a losing season, 6-10. They still had their superstar players, but little else. The dynasty was dead.

The Jimmy Johnson question is the biggest sliding door moment in Cowboy, NFL history.
First team to ever win 3 consecutive SB's, probably 4 straight barring injury.
Deion would have signed with Dallas, as Jimmy was already recruiting him in the SB at Atlanta.
I mean Jerry would have had a minimum of 5 Rings along with 2 more this franchise had in the 70's.
We would not be in a 25 year championship game drought. The team would have reloaded I am not saying we would be the 2000 era Patriots.
All of the coaches now stand on the shoulders of the previous greats. Jimmy knew team building, culture mattered. What made him special was all of that plus his special eye for talent. And to make that even more relevant, his ability to draft is what would have made the Cowboys successful in the FA era, draft and FA. Who to go after.

 

[Rayman70]

Hard to say...but knowing Jimmy, he would have traded him about a year before we let him go to ZONA.

 

[plasticman]

Except most of those players left before Emmitt's last contract. The biggest loss of players was due to the year the cap started which was a couple years before Emmitt's signed his last contract.
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Some of them left after Deion's contract and some of them left after Emmitt's. As I said, it was a combination of both.

Players that left after the 1996 season: (Emmitt's contract)
WR Kevin Williams
LB Godfrey Myles
LB Darrin Smith
LB Jim Schwanz

Three were former #2 or #3 draft picks. The other was a Pro Bowl special teamer. They all left after the 1996 season and before the 1997 season, in other words, the offseason in which Emmitt signed his new contract. Again, for the benefit of those who take the time to respond, and I appreciate that, but NOT BLAMING EMMITT!

 

[CouchCoach]

The guy that traded Herschel Walker? He's just like Belichick, no player is sacred. If a player has more value to him in a trade, done deal.

Johnson would have left before Emmitt, he would have been gone after the 3rd SB, if they'd beaten SF. He was always just passing through Dallas.

Let's not forget, he was a D guy all the way. If he'd stayed, he'd have circled the wagons around some key D players before a RB. He wanted a LB with that pick instead of a RB.

 

[BAT]

The guy that traded Herschel Walker? He's just like Belichick, no player is sacred. If a player has more value to him in a trade, done deal.

Johnson would have left before Emmitt, he would have been gone after the 3rd SB, if they'd beaten SF. He was always just passing through Dallas.

Let's not forget, he was a D guy all the way. If he'd stayed, he'd have circled the wagons around some key D players before a RB. He wanted a LB with that pick instead of a RB.

I loved the way he passed through, 3 Lombardi's.

We needed to let Jimmy pass on through again these last 25 years.

 

[CouchCoach]

I loved the way he passed through, 3 Lombardi's.

We needed to let Jimmy pass on through again these last 25 years.

2 but I give him credit for that 3rd one as well.

He was the absolutely perfect hire at the exact right time. His knowledge of the college players and his swagger were perfect for building a brand new team, the youngest team in the NFL and to appear in a SB.

Had he had a different GM, he might have lasted until that 4th SB but he was a sea guy. He would have been happier if Booger had bought the Chargers and hired him and who knows how that might have ended up. The fact that the Cowboys were already the most covered team, regardless of the record, didn't help the situation.

I think it all started south when Emmitt held out and Booger tried to make a stand only to give in and prove Johnson right again. Guess he showed him too, first team to ever go 0-2 and win the SB.

 

[Kingofholland]

Clearly if Jimmy was still around the Cowboys would go on to win 6 straight Super Bowls, Emmitt surpasses Walter Payton 2 years earlier and eclipses 20k rushing yards. At least that's what happens in my alternate universe. : )

 

[NeathBlue]

Assuming Jimmy gets total say on any free agents and new contracts for older players...
I doubt we sign Deon, he’d be far too much of a distraction for Jimmy to have around and also his dollar hit, would be better spent on players we lost through free agency.
Doubt Emmitt would a contract the length he did, maybe a 4 year deal and see how he’s playing at the end of it regarding another one.
Aikman might not have got the last extension he had though as he was visibly not the QB he was... anyone know when he did sign his last one?

 

[Super_Kazuya]

At the end, Emmitt became an easily replaceable back who didn't even average 4 yards per carry or bring anything to the table as a receiver over his final nine years. With that said I don't think Jimmy was/is as cutthroat as people think, and Emmitt was a workhorse... with no obvious replacement, I say that Emmitt would have been released after 2000, or 2 years earlier than what actually happened.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Jimmy Johnson wasn't like Jerry Jones, he was more bottom line. Jimmy was more like Belicek. He appreciated his players but he would have handled the salary cap far differently.

Jerry used contracts to reward players and I believe he was influenced by the star power. At the time, I think he considered a player's ability to attract fans when he should have focused entirely on a players future contribution to the success of a team.

Having been a college recruiter and coach for a championship team, Jimmy Johnson placed no value on sentiment. We are talking about a guy who divorced his wife because he knew he couldn't commit the time to both football and a marriage.

Before the 97 season, Jerry Jones signed Emmitt Smith to a huge 7 year contract. Emmitt had been in the league for 7 seasons. He was 28.

Two years prior, Jerry signed Deion Sanders to an historic contract. The repercussions of both contracts was the departure of over a dozen players that had contributed to those championships. It gutted the defense, the LB 's in particular.

They lost several players that had been in the league only 3 to 4 years and were in their prime, guys like Robert Jones, Dixon Edwards, Russel Maryland, Kevin Williams , Darrin Smith, Kenneth Gant, Godfrey Myles, and Brock Marion. Most of these guys were 1st, 2nd, and 3rd draft choices. Some of them even went on to make Pro Bowls for other teams.

It is my opinion, of course, but I believe Jimmy would have let Emmitt walk after the 96 season. He may have then gone to the draft to get someone like Tiki Barber or Corey Dillon. He liked speed so perhaps Barber would have been the pick.

From 1992 to 1996, the Cowboys were a top 5 team in preventing opponent scoring. They were a top ten team in turnover margin.

In 1997, just two seasons after winning the Super Bowl, the Cowboys had a losing season, 6-10. They still had their superstar players, but little else. The dynasty was dead.

Any smart coach replaces brings in the best talent no matter what the position and lets it work itself out. In with the new, out with the old.

Jerry is the guy with the purple heart that holds onto guys too long and gives them that last big contract.

Emmitt stayed here waaaaaay too long.

 

[CowboyRoy]

At the end, Emmitt became an easily replaceable back who didn't even average 4 yards per carry or bring anything to the table as a receiver over his final nine years. With that said I don't think Jimmy was/is as cutthroat as people think, and Emmitt was a workhorse... with no obvious replacement, I say that Emmitt would have been released after 2000, or 2 years earlier than what actually happened.

Emmitt should have been replaced 4 years before he got replaced. Like Aikman, Jerry was afraid to bring in a high pick and hurt their feewings.