CFZ How much can we realistically expect of NFL rookies?

[Bobhaze]

It’s been interesting to read so many posts here on our forum this summer that discuss how much our 2022 rookie class will contribute to this year’s team. Some predict several will not only start but will also be immediate big help. Other fans are not so sure.

So that led me to wonder: what can be realistically expected from an NFL rookie in their first season of NFL football?

Typically each year, approximately 260-270 college players are drafted into the NFL. According to NFL stats of the last 10 years, here’s how much rookies contribute to their team:

• Approximately 15-20% of rookies will be starters during the regular season.
• Of those players who start their rookie season, over 90% are 1st, 2nd or 3rd rounders.
• In 2021, 13 NFL teams did not start a single rookie in the first game of the season. That always changes as the season progresses. That does mean about 2/3 of the league will start a rookie immediately.
• Approximately 30-35% of rookies from Day 3 of the draft- that’s rounds 4-7- don’t even make their team’s final 53 man roster, although many make the practice squad.
• Rookie WRs often struggle adjusting to the NFL game. Route running is harder because coverages are more varied and sophisticated than in college. Guys that could depend solely on their athletic skills to catch passes find that’s not enough at this level. Even some of the greats struggled their rookie season.
• Rookie OL have to adjust to pro blocking and pass protection schemes and must learn how to be in close communication sync with their fellow OL or the QB can get blindsided.
• Over 75% of NFL rookies make their first contributions through STs rather than offense or defense.
• Of the 260 players drafted, usually no more than 3-5 make the pro bowl as a rookie. Last year, Micah Parsons was one of six rookies to make the pro bowl. That was a larger number than usual.

So what are some realistic expectations for our rookies?

• I think it’s pretty safe to say Tyler Smith will start- although not yet a lock- at LG. I think he will have lots of growing pains along with some excellent plays and development.
• Early in the season I also expect Jalen Tolbert to either start or see lots of action because of Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences. Rookie UFA Dennis Houston has been a camp star and I expect him to play some but not a ton.
  
• Sam Williams will probably play about 20-25 snaps a game on defense this year. He will hopefully be able to provide some pressure on occasion.

From what I’ve seen so far, I’m fairly pleased with our rookie class. It’s still too early to call it a success or failure. But it is clear we don’t have a Micah Parsons type talent in this year’s draft.

Bottom line- most rookies take time to meet their potential. Very few are “plug and play”. I will be pleasantly surprised if we have more 2-3 have much of an immediate big impact. That’s pretty much what history shows. Can’t wait to see what happens!

 

[jrumann59]

Depends on the position, RB start slow but pick up speed their 1st season. OL there are some teething problems but usually get better as the year goes on, same with DBs and LBers to a lesser extent. DE and WR take time, WR will usually flash if they have anything, DE might start showing by years end. Usually QBs take longer 2-3 years but usually show steady progression if they are worth anything. DT also take time. I think the positions that take time to season are QB, WR, DE, DT and Safeties.

 

[Bobhaze]

Depends on the position, RB start slow but pick up speed their 1st season. OL there are some teething problems but usually get better as the year goes on, same with DBs and LBers to a lesser extent. DE and WR take time, WR will usually flash if they have anything, DE might start showing by years end. Usually QBs take longer 2-3 years but usually show steady progression if they are worth anything. DT also take time. I think the positions that take time to season are QB, WR, DE, DT and Safeties.

Well said. I think Tyler Smith will struggle early but I also believe his upside and work ethic will overcome that. I think Tolbert will also struggle a lot at the beginning of the season and develop much like Gallup did which was later in the season his rookie year. Sam Williams I think will show some flashes but he won’t be a big time stud immediately.

 

[jrumann59]

Well said. I think Tyler Smith will struggle early but I also believe his upside and work ethic will overcome that. I think Tolbert will also struggle a lot at the beginning of the season and develop much like Gallup did which was later in the season his rookie year. Sam Williams I think will show some flashes but he won’t be a big time stud immediately.

DLaw did not show anything until the last 4-5 games his rookie year. What most rookie Rush ends tend to do is run around wild trying to make that play and they hit a wall early on from exhaustion.

 

[Tangle_Foot]

I think we have a pretty good draft class and my expectations are right in line with that, but I would also like to add cornerback Daron Bland to the list of rookies I expect to contribute. He had a pretty good outing against Denver and today was credited with three pass breakups and an interception.

 

[buybuydandavis]

So what are some realistic expectations for our rookies?

• I think it’s pretty safe to say Tyler Smith will start- although not yet a lock- at LG. I think he will have lots of growing pains along with some excellent plays and development.
• Early in the season I also expect Jalen Tolbert to either start or see lots of action because of Michael Gallup and James Washington’s absences. Rookie UFA Dennis Houston has been a camp star and I expect him to play some but not a ton.

Tyler Smith will probably be an asset in the run game and a liability in the passing game. The same can be said of Steele. If we run a *healthy* back this year, whether Zeke or Pollard, we should look good. The one threat to the run game is the weakness of the WR corps, especially to start the season.

I don't expect much of Tolbert. Likely Brown gets more snaps.

And every year there's some UFA wr who makes plays in camp and in preseason *against players who won't be in the NFL come September* and disappears from the league like a fart in the wind. No size, no speed, no one drafted him. That spells Jamaica Rector. I wish him the best, but anyone hanging their hopes for the team on Dennis Houston has a lot of hope but not much realism.

 

[AsthmaField]

I think we have a pretty good draft class and my expectations are right in line with that, but I would also like to add cornerback Daron Bland to the list of rookies I expect to contribute. He had a pretty good outing against Denver and today was credited with three pass breakups and at interception.

Yeah, Bland is looking very good. So good in fact, he might be playing the best of all the rookies. Had he been our first round choice, I would be more than pleased at how he’s playing. Imagine how I feel with him being a late round pick.

What he did in Oxnard is pretty impressive, but how he played against Denver in his very first live action was surprising. Hardly any of the rookies ever look that solid in all aspects in their first live action.

However, what is most surprising of all for him is how he performed today, when thrown into the first team defense against Herbert and company. He was very strong and the day he had against what should be one of the best offenses (and best QB’s) this season, was shocking. He is playing fantastic every day. In every situation. Herbert is crazy accurate, and for Bland to have 3 PBU and 1 INT means he was right on top of his man all day. You don’t do that by accident.

Getting a guy like that, late in the draft, at such an important position is like gold for an NFL team. Gold.

 

[plasticman]

I used to think, not much.

Sure, it's exciting to see a Cowboys rookie just smash it his first season and it's usually a really high draft pick but a long once in a while you get a rare find....

Defensive backs Everson Walls and Michael Downs....both undrafted rookie starters....in the same year.

I understood even back then that I would never see that again.

In 1969 and 1970 the Cowboys drafted a RB in the first round, Calvin Hill and Duane Thomas. Both of them ended up being Rookies of the Year.

Tony Dorsett, well, I think we all knew.

Harvey Martin, 3rd round pick. he was day #1 special. He instantly brought a viciousness to the defensive line.

There was a WR drafted in the 7th round in 1964. To this day, Bob Hayes holds the Cowboys rookie record for yardage, average yards per receptions, and TD's. Of course, I'm sure most suspected that the Olympic gold medalist and record holder for the 60 yard dash might be difficult to stop.

And then there is Dak Prescott with Ezekiel Elliott. Zeke was supposed to be the next great NFL RB and he started out on the right track his rookie year. Dak, a 4th round pick, and expected 3rd team "project" was so good his rookie season that, by the end of it, he was receiving the type of criticism you reserve for former first rounders in their prime.

Larry Allen started the 5th game of his rookie season and never looked back. By the end of his rookie season he was considered the best in the league at his position.

Safety Roy Williams started every game his rookie season.....5 INT's....3 forced fumbles.....96 combined tackles....

DeMarcus Ware started every game his rookie season.....8 sacks.....3 forced fumbles.

I name these 12 guys and I'm sure there are others but not many. It really is rare to get a really productive rookie season, it's special. Six of them were 1st round picks, four in the top ten. The other six you have two 3rd rounders, a 4th rounder, a 7th rounder and two undrafted.

Typically you get 1st rounders and sometimes 2nd rounders flash some potential during their rookie years but nothing consistent until later in their career. Guys like Randy White, Too Tall Jones, Michael Irvin, and Troy Aikman would end up being stars but they still had to gain a 2nd or even 3rd training camp before their breakout season.\

The guys we are talking about decided not to wait.

 

[morasp]

I expect Tolbert to exceed Noah Brown (184) and Gallup's (445) yards last season and maybe replace Wilson's (602).

I expect Smith to be an upgrade to Conner Williams and the run game

I expect Williams to have around eight sacks

I expect Ferguson to be TE2 and also upgrade our run game

I expect Ridgeway to be part of the short yardage packages clogging up the middle.

Lastly, don't forget what Jimmy used to tell the rookies before the playoffs. You've played a full season and you're not rookies anymore.

 

[The Quest for Six]

I really don't talk much about rookies unless they make a great play......Fans expect far to much from rookies, for the most part they're boys playing with men...I usually wait until the third season to judge whether a player is going to be a asset to the team or not...

 

[Aerolithe_Lion]

I expect Tolbert to exceed Noah Brown (184) and Gallup's (445) yards last season and maybe replace Wilson's (602).

I expect Smith to be an upgrade to Conner Williams and the run game

I expect Williams to have around eight sacks

I expect Ferguson to be TE2 and also upgrade our run game

I expect Ridgeway to be part of the short yardage packages clogging up the middle.

Lastly, don't forget what Jimmy used to tell the rookies before the playoffs. You've played a full season and you're not rookies anymore.

I agree with most of your predictions, but Williams likely isn’t the starter. He’ll mainly be in circumstantial heavy passing packages, don’t be surprised if he plays less than 50% of total defensive snaps his rookie year. Armstrong and Fowler will split time with him there.

8 sacks for a full time rookie DE is a heck of a lot, but for a part time rookie would be all-world.

 

[Bullflop]

I'd venture to say that our defense is most likely to set the tone for this team in 2022. The offense will struggle early in the season, as young players will be challenged to live up to their potential until at least mid-season or so. It'll be interesting to see if Dak is able to adjust in a timely fashion to the younger receivers that he'll be charged to find success with. Hopefully, we'll eventually see things shake out for the better. Patience will surely be required.

 

[Blackrain]

We usually do pretty good with the first round draft picks and I think it comes down to can Tyler Smith neutralize Jordan Davis.

If he can do that it's a total win in my opinion.

If the eagles defensive tackles grind our running game to a complete halt and put Dak on his back we will lose the division.

I think the other players will have flashes and progress slowly I'm kind of hoping Ferguson and Sam Williams will be ahead of the curve.

 

[morasp]

I agree with most of your predictions, but Williams likely isn’t the starter. He’ll mainly be in circumstantial heavy passing packages, don’t be surprised if he plays less than 50% of total defensive snaps his rookie year. Armstrong and Fowler will split time with him there.

8 sacks for a full time rookie DE is a heck of a lot, but for a part time rookie would be all-world.

Maybe, it will depend on his development. The way DQ rotates defensive line I think he will get his shots. Wouldn't be surprised if he was the starter by the end of the season. He graded out about the same as often injured Azeez Ojulari who had 8 last season.

 

[Ranched]

Some of the rookies will be day one starters. Others will be backups, either worked into the rotation or riding the bench for depth.

Either way, all will be expected to contribute in some form in the new season. I bet they're more excited than us fans lol.

 

[blueblood70]

Yeah, Bland is looking very good. So good in fact, he might be playing the best of all the rookies. Had he been our first round choice, I would be more than pleased at how he’s playing. Imagine how I feel with him being a late round pick.

What he did in Oxnard is pretty impressive, but how he played against Denver in his very first live action was surprising. Hardly any of the rookies ever look that solid in all aspects in their first live action.

However, what is most surprising of all for him is how he performed today, when thrown into the first team defense against Herbert and company. He was very strong and the day he had against what should be one of the best offenses (and best QB’s) this season, was shocking. He is playing fantastic every day. In every situation. Herbert is crazy accurate, and for Bland to have 3 PBU and 1 INT means he was right on top of his man all day. You don’t do that by accident.

Getting a guy like that, late in the draft, at such an important position is like gold for an NFL team. Gold.

we can all hope but lasty years camp standouts were wright, Hardy, and Kamara.. what happened with those 3 when it counted.um,not much 2 are gone and one is still trying to catch up..

 

[CCBoy]

Evaluaters use to say half a season just adjustment with top of the draft players. Then one to three years to pick the game up, not just strut like a movie star.

Most early field time is on special teams for lower picks.

 

[CCBoy]

Some of the rookies will be day one starters. Others will be backups, either worked into the rotation or riding the bench for depth.

Either way, all will be expected to contribute in some form in the new season. I bet they're more excited than us fans lol.

Need changes the most in talent use.

 

[AsthmaField]

we can all hope but lasty years camp standouts were wright, Hardy, and Kamara.. what happened with those 3 when it counted.um,not much 2 are gone and one is still trying to catch up..

I agree on those guys, but I never thought they were killing it every day like Bland. I hoped for those guys and I still do for Wright. In fact, Wright was the only one who I thought really even had more than about 1 good day.

But Wright never stacked days together like Bland, who is doing it every time he practices… and has been going all the way back to Rookie mini camp.

I see Bland as an entirely different level than Wright last year… or this year for that matter.

I really do see him as the 4th best corner this early.

Here’s to hoping that I’m right.

 

[CCBoy]

I agree on those guys, but I never thought they were killing it every day like Bland. I hoped for those guys and I still do for Wright. In fact, Wright was the only one who I thought really even had more than about 1 good day.

But Wright never stacked days together like Bland, who is doing it every time he practices… and has been going all the way back to Rookie mini camp.

I see Bland as an entirely different level than Wright last year… or this year for that matter.

I really do see him as the 4th best corner this early.

Here’s to hoping that I’m right.

My eye is set on Bland...so be it.