How much does luck play into football success?

[Zordon]

I'm just going back and looking at past drafts.

2011 - Texans get one of the greatest defensive players of all-time at the #11 pick.
2011 - Cardinals get a lockdown corner at the #5 pick.
2012 - Cowboys get Morris Claiborne at the #6 pick.

How much of this is just bad luck?

 

[Beats_By_Zeke]

I'm just going back and looking at past drafts.

2010 - Texans get one of the greatest defensive players of all-time at the #11 pick.
2011 - Cardinals get a lockdown corner at the #5 pick.
2012 - Cowboys get Morris Claiborne at the #6 pick.

How much of this is just bad luck?

We got a beast of a wr at 24.

 

[brymatt94]

I'm just going back and looking at past drafts.

2010 - Texans get one of the greatest defensive players of all-time at the #11 pick.
2011 - Cardinals get a lockdown corner at the #5 pick.
2012 - Cowboys get Morris Claiborne at the #6 pick.

How much of this is just bad luck?

First of all, I'm not sure Watt is quite there yet. He has been of the best defensive players since he came into the league but all-time, I don't know. And in a general sense, I don't believe in luck but regarding football, hell yeah its a real thing. Sometimes crazy things just happen. When I watch the Cowboys from week to week, at times I can only sum up some disappointments to pure luck. One of the first examples that comes to mind regarding luck is Eli Manning. Is he better than his brother? No way! Better than Brady or Brees? Not even. He isn't a better quarterback than Tony Romo but he has two super bowl rings. Just look at the David Tyree catch. As far as the draft, look at Dez. Here is a top 5 talent that almost fell perfectly into the Cowboys' laps, albeit because of his troubles in college, but still what is the likelihood that that happens?

 

[theogt]

I'd say the draft is about 90% luck and 10% about being better than the other teams at evaluating talent. Some are consistently better at evaluating talent, but it's not by a substantial margin. To clarify, it takes a lot of time and effort to put together a useful draft board. But all of the teams are spending a great deal of effort in that regard, so what separates teams in terms of drafting is most often not effort or know-how, but rather luck.

PS, JJ Watt is hardly one of the greatest defensive players of all time -- yet. One great season does not make a career.

 

[ElGatoGrande]

it pisses me off just thinking about Claiborne.

I'd say luck plays a roll when you're talking about a short length of time, but over an extended length of time good management wins out. (or loses out depending on which team you root for)

 

[Fizziksman]

of course luck plays a part. i mean look at Eli Manning Forrest Gumping his way to 2-SBs.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

What success has the Texans and Cardinals have had since those drafts though lol?

And how about finding Miles and Romo as undrafted free agent rookies? Or Dez falling into the 20's? Or Tyron Smith going to us at #9?

 

[Lonestar94]

I'd say the draft is about 90% luck and 10% about being better than the other teams at evaluating talent. Some are consistently better at evaluating talent, but it's not by a substantial margin. To clarify, it takes a lot of time and effort to put together a useful draft board. But all of the teams are spending a great deal of effort in that regard, so what separates teams in terms of drafting is most often not effort or know-how, but rather luck.

PS, JJ Watt is hardly one of the greatest defensive players of all time -- yet. One great season does not make a career.

(2) great seasons if that accounts for anything.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

None. Luck is a 'tool' used when understanding doesn't allow a better explanation.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Luck plays a big part in todays NFL.

If your LUCKY to have the refs on your side, you'll win lots of games.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

None. Luck is a 'tool' used when understanding doesn't allow a better explanation.

You're being fooled by randomness.

 

[Tabascocat]

It takes skill to put together a complete team...

It takes luck to maintain it from injuries and disappointing player expectations.

Dallas is about average to below average drafting the right players and they fail in the last part minus a few exceptions.

 

[Hoofbite]

I think there's luck involved as far as what players are available to you at the time of choosing.

There's nothing you can do in terms of changing what players are taken by other teams. If someone falls to you, it hasn't been because of your doing.

Once you are on the clock though, picking one of the best of what's left is entirely based on ability to identify those players.

Then again, there's really no way of knowing if you're picking a highly skilled guy who has no heart, or who lacks the mental aspect of the game. The Raiders seemed to have evaluated McClain's ability pretty well, but how could anyone know he'd be a giant flake?

 

[Wheeltax]

You never really know what you're getting from the draft. For all the scouting and interviewing that gets done, sometimes a guy loved by all who set the world on fire in college just never gets it done in the pros. Claiborne won't be the last. It happens every year. Just sucks that Dallas gave up what they did to get him.

 

[SHAMSzy]

Those Patriots have been running really hot!

 

[Alexander]

I'd say the draft is about 90% luck and 10% about being better than the other teams at evaluating talent. Some are consistently better at evaluating talent, but it's not by a substantial margin. To clarify, it takes a lot of time and effort to put together a useful draft board. But all of the teams are spending a great deal of effort in that regard, so what separates teams in terms of drafting is most often not effort or know-how, but rather luck.

PS, JJ Watt is hardly one of the greatest defensive players of all time -- yet. One great season does not make a career.

Assembling a board with talent that fits your team a and what you want to do is key. It is about self analysis first. There is a reason some teams do better, they have a system to draft to and identify the right players that fit.

 

[CCBoy]

I'm thinking that Dallas has been pretty good at shopping for players that match what they want to develop up. This is year two in a scheme change, and cash to do the shopping has been a little low up until next season. We shall get a view on the trend started at the bottom of the team, and where they are heading as to players already on board. Once on the field, it's dedication and sweat equity. We shall see this season on directions...to be continued.

 

[Zekeats]

Is it lucky to have a drunk running a billion dollar football team

 

[CCBoy]

Is it lucky to have a drunk running a billion dollar football team

In a Jerry trash posting, I'll tell you what...get into a financial category that one can afford the quality of liquor that Jerry Jones consumes...and get back to us.

 

[Risen Star]

I'm just going back and looking at past drafts.

2011 - Texans get one of the greatest defensive players of all-time at the #11 pick.
2011 - Cardinals get a lockdown corner at the #5 pick.
2012 - Cowboys get Morris Claiborne at the #6 pick.

How much of this is just bad luck?

It's the bad luck of having an insane owner.