Recently, I posted the results of a Monte Carlo simulation, not so much as a prediction of who Dallas might select, but rather who might be available in each of the first 4 rounds to select.
I updated the simulation recently using a combination of published player rankings and team needs/priorities. Without further ado, here are a few nuggets from the analysis:
Round 1
- There is a greater than 90% probability (P90) that one of Vea, Payne or Hurst will be available at 19 when the Cowboys select.
- There is a P50 probability that either Roquan Smith or Tremaine Edminds will be available.
- There is less than P25 probability that Calvin Ridley will be available.
Round 2
- There is a P75 probability that one of Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn or Billy Price will be available.
For those not familiar with probabilistic analysis, this approach simply projects who might be available, and not who might be selected.
My take-away from this is that, unless there is a really sweet deal on the table to trade down, Dallas can, most likely, address both BPA as well as "need" at their current draft position.
I know this is a rather academic approach to the draft, but it is fun. I tend to look at likelihood of occurrence rather than absolutes.
