Impact of losing top RB

[Toruk_Makto]

I've posted this before but I think it deserves its own thread.

Last year, these projections had the Cowboys way too low, with a mean forecast of just 7-9. This year, our projection looks too extreme in the other direction. How can Dallas be the second-best team in the league despite the loss ofDeMarco Murray? History says that losing a top running back doesn't tend to have a strong impact on overall offensive quality. The passing game and the offensive line simply have much more importance in the modern NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have more injuries on offense (No. 2 in our adjusted games lost metric) but better health on defense (No. 28 in AGL) should help improve that unit to league average. (The Cowboys are also the only NFC East team that will not have to face the suspended Tom Brady).

Source: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insi...ail-only-seahawks-nfc-projected-standings-nfl

I thought this was especially interesting with our own Michael Irvin predicting that the loss of Demarco will lead the Eagles over us in the NFCE. Afterall we are likely to have a better passing game and will undoubtedly have a better offensive line.

By now my position is fairly well established. I believe to my core that the line stirs the drink when it comes to effective rushing games moreso than the other way around.

Now with a respected analytics shop backing it up. What say you everyone?

 

[Denim Chicken]

I think we need a bell cow, an every-down back, a physical runner who can establish a rhythm and wear defenses down. Murray punished tacklers whether he gained 1 yard or 10. He made defenses stack the box and still pushed through for positive yardage. Opponents knew our game plan, but could couldn't stop it. I worry about RBBC having the same effectiveness. I worry about us getting to cute draws and pitches and loose the straight power running that I believe opens up our passing game. I hope whoever the lead back end up being is getting at least 85% of the snaps.

 

[jday]

I've posted this before but I think it deserves its own thread.



I thought this was especially interesting with our own Michael Irvin predicting that the loss of Demarco will lead the Eagles over us in the NFCE. Afterall we are likely to have a better passing game and will undoubtedly have a better offensive line.

By now my position is fairly well established. I believe to my core that the line stirs the drink when it comes to effective rushing games moreso than the other way around.

Now with a respected analytics shop backing it up. What say you everyone?

I'll respond the way I did the first time you posted it:

FootballOutsiders could be right. I honestly am on the fence with this team right now. The front office has been pretty on point with their decision making thus far so they have earned a small degree of trust.

For one, you could make the argument that with an improved pass rush alone, the need for last year's production in the running game is considerably reduced. But if you take off the kool aid goggles for just a moment and look at it logically, the Cowboys sudden emergence from mediocrity in a year where they on paper were predicted to fail epically was heralded in by a significantly improved running game.

Clearly, Zach Martin played a significant part in that. But a healthy Demarco did too. He was also a significant contributor when healthy in previous seasons before Martin and Frederick. And in those games where he was effective the Cowboys win percentages improved drastically.

Now, we don't have him; which I am on record as saying I'm okay with. He wanted too much for too long and very well may lose a step as a result of how much the Cowboys leaned on him last season. With the crutch removed, though, you would think the Cowboys would attempt to either upgrade or at least maintain the status quo. Instead, they are ripping up that blue print and moving on to a new one; the by committee approach. It very well could work, but why after finally getting that identity back after years and years and years of straying from it and trying it a different away with very little success would you say, "to hell with it, let's try something new!?"

 

[superonyx]

If the running game is really only about the offensive line them I guess Emmitt was really not important to us. He gets credit as being one of the triplets but in actuality it was really only Aikman and Irvin?

I can see the argument about the offensive line but I worry that we are switching more than just RB's. We are switching running styles also. Murray was a power runner. Our committee is made up of speed backs more than power backs like Murray.

Time will tell. Man I hope the FO is right.

 

[Corso]

I'll respond the way I did the first time you posted it:

FootballOutsiders could be right. I honestly am on the fence with this team right now. The front office has been pretty on point with their decision making thus far so they have earned a small degree of trust.

For one, you could make the argument that with an improved pass rush alone, the need for last year's production in the running game is considerably reduced. But if you take off the kool aid goggles for just a moment and look at it logically, the Cowboys sudden emergence from mediocrity in a year where they on paper were predicted to fail epically was heralded in by a significantly improved running game.

Clearly, Zach Martin played a significant part in that. But a healthy Demarco did too. He was also a significant contributor when healthy in previous seasons before Martin and Frederick. And in those games where he was effective the Cowboys win percentages improved drastically.

Now, we don't have him; which I am on record as saying I'm okay with. He wanted too much for too long and very well may lose a step as a result of how much the Cowboys leaned on him last season. With the crutch removed, though, you would think the Cowboys would attempt to either upgrade or at least maintain the status quo. Instead, they are ripping up that blue print and moving on to a new one; the by committee approach. It very well could work, but why after finally getting that identity back after years and years and years of straying from it and trying it a different away with very little success would you say, "to hell with it, let's try something new!?"

Awesome post. Spot on.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I hope whoever the lead back end up being is getting at least 85% of the snaps.

That won't happen and shouldn't have happened last year.

 

[Corso]

If the running game is really only about the offensive line them I guess Emmitt was really not important to us. He gets credit as being one of the triplets but in actuality it was really only Aikman and Irvin?

I can see the argument about the offensive line but I worry that we are switching more than just RB's. We are switching running styles also. Murray was a power runner. Our committee is made up of speed backs more than power backs like Murray.

Time will tell. Man I hope the FO is right.

I feel like you and I are sitting on the same life boat and looking at the sharks circling us and we have one spear. I just told you I've played basketball in High School and I think I can do this...
You just looked at me with a fair bit of skepticism, but what you gonna do? You've never been here before and I'm telling you I can do this.

Boy- I sure hope I can spear us some dinner here... Done! How you going to make a fire to eat this sucka?
Oh... you're into sushi. Jerk. I want a fire... Don't tell me about how the fire will destroy our raft! I want warmth ******!

 

[Denim Chicken]

Can't blame the FO, though. Their really aren't that many RBs that run with Murray's style. Laveaon Bell is the closest I believe. People keep saying Murray wasn't special. I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Why he is not special in the sense of a scat-back, homerun hitter type; he was one of the few physical, punishing,lateral power backs in the league.

 

[windward]

I've posted this before but I think it deserves its own thread.



I thought this was especially interesting with our own Michael Irvin predicting that the loss of Demarco will lead the Eagles over us in the NFCE. Afterall we are likely to have a better passing game and will undoubtedly have a better offensive line.

By now my position is fairly well established. I believe to my core that the line stirs the drink when it comes to effective rushing games moreso than the other way around.

Now with a respected analytics shop backing it up. What say you everyone?

I agree with this sentiment. Our decline in the 90s wasn't due to the running game being less effective, it had more to do with our passing game declining significantly from 1995 to 1996.

 

[Denim Chicken]

That won't happen and shouldn't have happened last year.

I disagree and think it was exactly what made us successful. You can play around with the percentage a bit, but I believe my point is clear.

 

[bark]

The patriots went 11-5 the yr Brady went down with a knee injury and missed the entire yr.
we should be able to compensate for the loss of a running back fellas

 

[Moderately_Askew]

I think the fact that the main discussion topic for the offseason is whether or not the RB position is set bodes well for the upcoming season. Dallas must have a decent team assembled.

 

[Aven8]

Can't blame the FO, though. Their really aren't that many RBs that run with Murray's style. Laveaon Bell is the closest I believe. People keep saying Murray wasn't special. I wholeheartedly disagree with this. Why he is not special in the sense of a scat-back, homerun hitter type; he was one of the few physical, punishing,lateral power backs in the league.

There are a couple that come to mind, Peterson, Beastmode, and you could argue Lacy. I will miss him I cannot lie. That physical style intimidated a lot of teams including the SB champs at there house.

 

[hornitosmonster]

Who made who. In our case the line made Murray

 

[Aven8]

Who made who. In our case the line made Murray

Give me a break.

 

[AzorAhai]

The defense is improved so we don't have to be so dependent on the run. They ran to predictably for my liking last season and it lessened its effectiveness. Running 75% of 1st downs is not the best way to do things. Teams were stacking the box and selling out more often than not. I would like to see less of that this year and see more teams guessing whats coming.

 

[Fritsch_the_cat]

I What say you everyone?

I'm not convinced at this point we lost a top RB.

 

[AdamJT13]

FWIW: Last season, we averaged more yards per rush when Murray was not on the field than when he was on the field. We also averaged more yards per pass when Murray was not on the field than when he was on the field.

 

[CATCH17]

If the running game is really only about the offensive line them I guess Emmitt was really not important to us. He gets credit as being one of the triplets but in actuality it was really only Aikman and Irvin?

I can see the argument about the offensive line but I worry that we are switching more than just RB's. We are switching running styles also. Murray was a power runner. Our committee is made up of speed backs more than power backs like Murray.

Time will tell. Man I hope the FO is right.

Emmitt was a great back.

Demarco is not. He has no vision.

Just because Demarco was solid all around doesn't mean he was our offensive savior last year because he might as well have been Stevie Wonder back there.

Joseph Randle having 1 less 30 yard run on 1/4 of the carries is proof of that.

 

[ifixoldhouses]

Murray is like Laurent Robinson, he'll fade into obscurity soon, every time Randle got the ball last year he ran it in for a touchdown