Improve this and our offense will be dangerous again

[Diehardblues]

Maybe. The chiefs did that last year a ton. So did the rams. It doesnt have to be every posession inside the 10, but this offense was the most predictable, easy to defend in the red zone because they do not force defenses to cover the whole field.

And why is our defense so easy to defend . Could it have anything to do with our QB??

 

[Pantone282C]

Scoring TDs in the red zone is a critical success component of teams who win. Last year, the Cowboys scored a TD only 48% of the time it was in the red zone. That was 29th in the league in 2018. The league average for red zone TD scoring in 2018 was about 62%. Even after the Cooper trade, our offense finished 22nd in scoring last year.

That MUST improve if we are going to compete for a championship.

What’s even more amazing is even with the best RB in football, and the best running NFL QB in the red zone (yes Dak haters, the last 3 yrs Dak has been the best red zone running QB- even better than Cam Newton) the Cowboys have not been good in the red zone since 2016. And its even more startling when you consider, we finished 32nd- dead last in the league- in scoring TDs from a first and goal situation.

Here’s some interesting notes about WHAT was happening in the red zone and why most problems are mostly on Scott Linehan and Garrett:

• On first, second or third and goal situations inside the ten last year, Zeke had 11 carries for 5 yards.
• Dak averages 4.4 yards a carry inside the ten. That’s the best avg per carry of any player who ran the ball last yr inside the ten yl and yet, Linehan rarely called his number.
• Pass plays inside the ten were run mostly from Jumbo TE packages, and the best route runners were on the sideline.

So how can this be fixed?

• Spread out. Occasionally run a 5 Wide empty backfield using Zeke as a wide out which forces the defense to respect that you have passing options, or run a 4 WR set with Zeke in back field. Again forcing the defense to have multiple things to worry about. Dak was deadly as a runner from the empty back set.
• Just a side note on the empty backfield sets- Dak has scored 5 TDs and 3 two point conversions from this set. It’s almost unstoppable for defenses yet Linehan almost never used it in the red zone.
• Stop always going into the “Jumbo” TE package, which makes it easier for defenses to stop the run game inside the ten because they can sell out against the run and have very little area to cover receivers.
• The best offenses in the NFL last year- Rams, Chiefs, Saints, etc, ran spread formations more than half the time inside the ten.

The bottom line is this: If we want to take the next step in being relevant in January, we must improve our red zone offense performance. That’s going to fall mostly on the young shoulders of Kellen Moore. Hopefully he’s learned some things about what NOT to do in the red zone from Scott Linehan. And let’s hope Head Coach Vanilla doesn’t hinder the creativity of his OC.

Tell it bro!

 

[Diehardblues]

We try to protect our QB too much from throwing interceptions in Endzone. And lost our two best threats in Dez and Witten in Redzone .

When your most effective play is QB running in Redzone, it’s not going to be productive in NFL very long.

We are a one dimensional team in Redzone because of our QB skill sets which makes it easy to defend.

 

[Flamma]

Maybe. The chiefs did that last year a ton. So did the rams. It doesnt have to be every posession inside the 10, but this offense was the most predictable, easy to defend in the red zone because they do not force defenses to cover the whole field.

That's fine. But my point is that Prescott doesn't make those throws. So you're right to an extent that Dallas doesn't use the whole field, but not due to formation. Our inside the 10 redzone offense is a Dak run, Zeke run, swing pass to the flat, or quick out at the GL. No passes into the endzone.

 

[Diehardblues]

That's fine. But my point is that Prescott doesn't make those throws. So you're right to an extent that Dallas doesn't use the whole field, but not due to formation. Our inside the 10 redzone offense is a Dak run, Zeke run, swing pass to the flat, or quick out at the GL. No passes into the endzone.

Yep

Our play calling is limited because of our QB skill sets and or lack of confidence. And why we play it safe as 3 points is better than a turnover.

We must also credit losing his best receivers and biggest threat in Redzone with Dez and Witten. Hopefully return of Witten will help.

 

[Stash]

Its not that easy, especially against quality defenses. They sell out against us inside the red zone in terms of the run. They would rather force Dak to beat us with his arm than let Elliott plow them.

The stats seem to back it up:

YPC inside the Red Zone for TD leaders in 2018:

Gurley - 3.2
Kamara - 3.5
Connor - 2.7
Henry - 3.5
Barkley - 1.8
Gordon - 4.0
Howard - 3.2
Carson - 2.5

Elliott was at 2.4 in the red zone. Not a perfect measure but it gives you an idea that Elliott isn't exactly plowing teams in the red zone like some think and that we should just force feed him the ball and all will be great. Until Dak is a more consistent threat in the passing game, teams will continue to load up on Elliott. They could also run Dak more than they have but that comes with added injury risk obviously.

Fixing our red zone issues goes beyond just handing the ball to Elliott more. Dak has to be sharper down there, they have to more creative in their play calls and play design as well. So it's not all on Dak.

True, but doesn't the fact that we had a backup center and rookie left guard factor into 2018 numbers?

 

[Stash]

This is #1. With nobody to command a double team, defenses are just going to stack the box. Until Dak consistently makes throws into tight windows, there aren't going to be opportunities to exploit in the run game.

Yes but instead of bunching your own offense together and helping the defense, how about forcing them to spread out? Instead of archaic 3-TE packages, you actually put receiving options on the field?

 

[Stash]

Redzone scoring no doubt needs to improve but quick strike ability I think would allow this offense to reach another level. Dallas is a great running team and often will force defense to put the extra man in the box but I think the offense has to be better hitting those down field quick strike passes

Specifically wth Gallup. There were a lot of missed big-play opportunities between he and Prescott. Completing them this year will be huge for both guys and the entire offense.

 

[Doomsday101]

Specifically wth Gallup. There were a lot of missed big-play opportunities between he and Prescott. Completing them this year will be huge for both guys and the entire offense.

I agree. Some on Dak some on Gallup. I have mentioned it and seen broadcasters mention how he needs to give himself more cushion down the sideline it allows the QB a bit more space to fit the ball in. I hope they have spent some time together during the off season be in sync with each other. I do like Gallup and think his future on this team is bright.

 

[Stash]

I agree. Some on Dak some on Gallup. I have mentioned it and seen broadcasters mention how he needs to give himself more cushion down the sideline it allows the QB a bit more space to fit the ball in. I hope they have spent some time together during the off season be in sync with each other. I do like Gallup and think his future on this team is bright.

The sky's the limit if they can get their timing down.

 

[Future]

Yes but instead of bunching your own offense together and helping the defense, how about forcing them to spread out? Instead of archaic 3-TE packages, you actually put receiving options on the field?

Because that doesn't change anything. What's the difference in having Hurns not get open vs. Jarwin not getting open? Spreading a defense out only matters if it means not having a defender unaccounted for in the run game, which doesn't happen if you don't have to double anybody. Even if you go 5-wide, you still have 6 defenders in the box.

I'll use this example again:
If Dez does not command the double team, it doesn't matter if they are spread out, because the extra defender is still sitting there to stop the run. As of right now, Cooper hasn't proven to be a guy who commands a double in this situation, so spreading out makes no difference.

 

[Stash]

Because that doesn't change anything. What's the difference in having Hurns not get open vs. Jarwin not getting open? Spreading a defense out only matters if it means not having a defender unaccounted for in the run game, which doesn't happen if you don't have to double anybody. Even if you go 5-wide, you still have 6 defenders in the box.

And I should be worried about "6 defenders in the box"? Well I'm not.

I'll use this example again:
If Dez does not command the double team, it doesn't matter if they are spread out, because the extra defender is still sitting there to stop the run. As of right now, Cooper hasn't proven to be a guy who commands a double in this situation, so spreading out makes no difference.

I don't need a double team. At all. If your waiting for a double team, you'll be waiting a long time.

I need less congestion inside.

 

[Future]

And I should be worried about "6 defenders in the box"? Well I'm not.



I don't need a double team. At all. If your waiting for a double team, you'll be waiting a long time.

I need less congestion inside.

Congestion is irrelevant. What congestion means is that there are unblocked defenders. 6 in the box against 5 defenders presents the same problem as going with 3 TEs and facing 10 in the box.

Yes, you do need a double team. Otherwise, your strategy is to just have our players be better than theirs. That's a staple of JG's tenure, but it's what prevents this team from having any consistency on offense.

 

[Stash]

Congestion is irrelevant.

This is every bit as terrible as your "no safety improves this team" comment. Ridiculous.

What congestion means is that there are unblocked defenders. 6 in the box against 5 defenders presents the same problem as going with 3 TEs and facing 10 in the box.

Is 8 in the box better then? Because that's what you're arguing for. And if your 5 and ball carrier can't beat 6 in the box? You just plain suck, and never will and don't deserve to win anything.

Yes, you do need a double team. Otherwise, your strategy is to just have our players be better than theirs. That's a staple of JG's tenure, but it's what prevents this team from having any consistency on offense.

At some point, your players have to be better. If you're relying on having a numbers advantage, having to play a quarterback out there will always leave you at a disadvantage.

Again, this position is a sign poorly thought out as "no safety can improve this team". Head scratching stuff.

 

[Future]

This is every bit as terrible as your "no safety improves this team" comment. Ridiculous.



Is 8 in the box better then? Because that's what you're arguing for. And if your 5 and ball carrier can't beat 6 in the box? You just plain suck, and never will and don't deserve to win anything.



At some point, your players have to be better. If you're relying on having a numbers advantage, having to play a quarterback out there will always leave you at a disadvantage.

Again, this position is a sign poorly thought out as "no safety can improve this team". Head scratching stuff.

8 in the box isn't different than 6 in the box. What matters is the number of unblocked defenders. Without a receiver or TE commanding a double team, there will always be an unblocked defender. If your strategy for the run game in the red zone to simply "make a guy miss," fine. But that...doesn't always work. Have better players is about the worst strategy possible, and none of the good teams in the NFL rely on it.

I mean, did you even watch the clip? The whole reason that play worked was because they made the safety commit. He either picks doubling Dez or defending the run, and it's an easy read for Dak. You lose that without a player who needs to be doubled. The teams who have success spreading it out inside the 5 (Pitt, NE) have guys that absolutely command a double team and a QB who can quickly diagnose and throw to the matchup. They absolutely play the numbers game. Modern offenses are all about the numbers game...

I didn't say no safety can improve this team. I said no safety that could practically be traded for would. And I stand by it, because Karl Joseph sucks and even you can't name anyone else.

 

[Beaker42]

That is by far the easiest, simple fix that has the biggest effect
Just getting to avg is probably another 4-5 points a game
In a league where teams almost always play tight games, 4-5 more points a game is huge

From 48% to 62% is probably good for at least 7 points a game. I think.

 

[Stash]

8 in the box isn't different than 6 in the box. What matters is the number of unblocked defenders. Without a receiver or TE commanding a double team, there will always be an unblocked defender. If your strategy for the run game in the red zone to simply "make a guy miss," fine. But that...doesn't always work. Have better players is about the worst strategy possible, and none of the good teams in the NFL rely on it.

No, my strategy is it's far more favorable to beat one guy than it is four. 6 in the box leaves 1 guy unblocked. And every block you have to make increases the chances for a missed block. But you dint have to block the guy outside the box as much as the guy inside. If he's far enough away, he's a non-factor anyway. That's the point.

I mean, did you even watch the clip? The whole reason that play worked was because they made the safety commit. He either picks doubling Dez or defending the run, and it's an easy read for Dak. You lose that without a player who needs to be doubled. The teams who have success spreading it out inside the 5 (Pitt, NE) have guys that absolutely command a double team and a QB who can quickly diagnose and throw to the matchup. They absolutely play the numbers game. Modern offenses are all about the numbers game...

So your point is to bring Dez back?

I didn't say no safety can improve this team. I said no safety that could practically be traded for would. And I stand by it, because Karl Joseph sucks and even you can't name anyone else.

Shall I pull up your exact quote and embarrass you further? Do you want to go from looking bad to looking worse?

 

[Stash]

From 48% to 62% is probably good for at least 7 points a game. I think.

Storm does some math here:

A branch off the red-zone tree makes them look even worse: No team (32nd) was more inefficient at scoring touchdowns after a first-and-goal than the Dallas Cowboys.

You mean to tell me with this running back and this offensive line (not to mention Prescottand Cooper) Dallas can’t punch in a first-and-goal? The Cowboys scored touchdowns after 52% of first-and-goals. The Saints led the league at 85%. Do you know how many points that accounts for? Seven different NFL teams were over 80% in this category! Minnesota was 19th in the league, and their rate was 75%!

If league average is 76% and you sat at 52% in a scenario you encounter at least 25 times per season, that means you left between six and eight touchdowns on the field last year. Let’s meet in the middle and call it seven. Since the Cowboys were so bad here, we can easily suggest that they kicked six field goals for 18 points, with the last attempt including a stopped fourth down or takeaway. That is a 31 point difference, roughly two points per game. Two points per game would vault a team from the 22nd-best scoring offense (where they finished the year) to about the 15th-best without changing a single other thing.

 

[America's Cowboy]

fg opportunity*

Yep, even a FG inside the 30 is not a guarantee with our current FG kicker.

 

[Future]

No, my strategy is it's far more favorable to beat one guy than it is four. 6 in the box leaves 1 guy unblocked. And every block you have to make increases the chances for a missed block. But you dint have to block the guy outside the box as much as the guy inside. If he's far enough away, he's a non-factor anyway. That's the point.

So your point is to bring Dez back?

Shall I pull up your exact quote and embarrass you further? Do you want to go from looking bad to looking worse?

8 in the box leaves 1 guy unblocked when there are 7 blockers. You never have to beat 4, it is always about beating one man. If you're worried about missed blocks, that's directly opposed to what you just said about "at some point, your players have to be better." If you aren't blocking a guy, then you don't care about spread vs. tight anyways.

No. Saying that without a player who can command a double team, spread doesn't matter.

Here, I'll do it for you.

There is not one safety in the league we could, in practicality, trade for who would make a difference for this team.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/teams-are-calling-cowboys-to-trade.433464/page-2#post-9203239