Interesting Darren McFadden stats

[Galian Beast]

After talking to some people in another thread about running back numbers and how they can be misleading, I wanted to look at the granular stats for McFadden.

When running with a lead McFadden averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year. The problem with this number however is that McFadden only ran with a lead for 22 carries last year. When the game was tied he also ran for 4.1 yards per carry though. This only happened under 41 carries though.

McFadden had 92 carries playing from behind. And when he played from behind his numbers dropped to 3 yards per carry. When down 9 or more points, his averages dropped to 2.2 yards per carry. When behind, no one was afraid of that Oakland offense. Period, point blank. One of their best wide receiver couldn't even make this team... (Andre Holmes)

This lead me to want to investigate McFadden a little bit more, and so I did.

You can look at his 2013 numbers and they reveal that this isn't a fluke.

In 2013, with the lead McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry, when behind he averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Tied, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

There were a couple years in which he was actually a pretty good running back. I don't think that was a fluke either. They were the only two years that the Raiders were even remotely good (8-8 both years).

I mean it is entirely possible that he is done as a player or at least done as a special player, but I really think we need to evaluate him going forward on what he does here, and give him somewhat of a pass for Oakland.

He isn't the only player to have struggled there. Randy Moss was actually in a very similar situation. Carson Palmer also struggled in Oakland.

 

[jrumann59]

After talking to some people in another thread about running back numbers and how they can be misleading, I wanted to look at the granular stats for McFadden.

When running with a lead McFadden average 4.1 yards per carry last year. The problem with this number however is that McFadden only ran with a lead for 22 carries last year. When the game was tied he also ran for 4.1 yards per carry though. This only happened under 41 carries though.

McFadden had 92 carries playing from behind. And when he played from behind his numbers dropped to 3 yards per carry. When down 9 or more points, his averages dropped to 2.2 yards per carry. When behind, no one was afraid of that Oakland offense. Period, point blank. One of their best wide receiver couldn't even make this team... (Andre Holmes)

This lead me to want to investigate McFadden a little bit more, and so I did.

You can look at his 2013 numbers and they reveal that this isn't a fluke.

In 2013, with the lead McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry, when behind he averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Tied, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

There were a couple years in which he was actually a pretty good running back. I don't think that was a fluke either. They were the only two years that the Raiders were even remotely good (8-8 both years).

I mean it is entirely possible that he is done as a player or at least done as a special player, but I really think we need to evaluate him going forward on what he does here, and give him somewhat of a pass for Oakland.

He isn't the only player to have struggled there. Randy Moss was actually in a very similar situation. Carson Palmer also struggled in Oakland.

GB Should it not be inverse though. You would think when he has a lead or tied teams would be playing the run 1st especially in Oakland. I am just trying to figure out what you are getting at, attitude, losing culture, bad play calling?

 

[Galian Beast]

GB Should it not be inverse though. You would think when he has a lead or tied teams would be playing the run 1st especially in Oakland. I am just trying to figure out what you are getting at, attitude, losing culture, bad play calling?

I think Oakland's best offensive weapon was McFadden, I am theorizing that when behind, teams focused on that since they were not afraid of getting beat deep. They probably ran/pass blitzed a lot more as a result. When you have the lead, you have to play your opponents offense honestly.

 

[TheDude]

After talking to some people in another thread about running back numbers and how they can be misleading, I wanted to look at the granular stats for McFadden.

When running with a lead McFadden averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year. The problem with this number however is that McFadden only ran with a lead for 22 carries last year. When the game was tied he also ran for 4.1 yards per carry though. This only happened under 41 carries though.

McFadden had 92 carries playing from behind. And when he played from behind his numbers dropped to 3 yards per carry. When down 9 or more points, his averages dropped to 2.2 yards per carry. When behind, no one was afraid of that Oakland offense. Period, point blank. One of their best wide receiver couldn't even make this team... (Andre Holmes)

This lead me to want to investigate McFadden a little bit more, and so I did.

You can look at his 2013 numbers and they reveal that this isn't a fluke.

In 2013, with the lead McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry, when behind he averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Tied, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

There were a couple years in which he was actually a pretty good running back. I don't think that was a fluke either. They were the only two years that the Raiders were even remotely good (8-8 both years).

I mean it is entirely possible that he is done as a player or at least done as a special player, but I really think we need to evaluate him going forward on what he does here, and give him somewhat of a pass for Oakland.

He isn't the only player to have struggled there. Randy Moss was actually in a very similar situation. Carson Palmer also struggled in Oakland.

sample size is pretty low with the lead. Not to get back to the thread a few weeks ago, but 1 run here can really skew a meh overall performance. average isnt as important as % 1st down's or TD's, situational, etc. The below gives you 22 carries for a 4.1 average. Not saying that is McFaddens numbers, I dont know where that data is. But it is an example of not putting too much stock on a single number


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4.13 average

 

[theogt]

Im interested in seeing how many threads a day you start a day after an 8-8 season VS a 12-4 season

Galian -- I've seen comments like this in several of your threads. Personally, I'd prefer you keep making threads like this and the others. They're interesting, even if I disagree with you in some of them. The more substantive threads, the better.

I've never really thought to study how a running back performs when playing from behind. I'd be interested in seeing how other backs perform, for some perspective. Alas, I'm too lazy to look.

 

[Galian Beast]

sample size is pretty low with the lead. Not to get back to the thread a few weeks ago, but 1 run here can really skew a meh overall performance. average isnt as important as % 1st down's or TD's, situational, etc. The below gives you 22 carries for a 4.1 average. Not saying that is McFaddens numbers, I dont know where that data is. But it is an example of not putting too much stock on a single number


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4.13 average

If you read everything I said, you would see that I went to the previous year specifically for a larger sample size.

 

[Galian Beast]

Galian -- I've seen comments like this in several of your threads. Personally, I'd prefer you keep making threads like this and the others. They're interesting, even if I disagree with you in some of them. The more substantive threads, the better.

I've never really thought to study how a running back performs when playing from behind. I'd be interested in seeing how other backs perform, for some perspective. Alas, I'm too lazy to look.

Thanks. It's generally the same people over and over again. If they're right about a thread not having merit, then that thread will die out quickly. Ironically, many of these same people keep the threads going, and see to be enjoying debating the points brought up in them. I think a lot of people have a personal problem with me rather a dislike of the context of threads I have created, but I don't take anything personal. I could tell someone that they haven't paid attention to a point in one thread, and congratulate them on having a brilliant point in that same thread or another thread. I don't mind except when their trolling derails threads that I think could really further discussion, like they did in the Gregory thread I created.

 

[TheDude]

If you read everything I said, you would see that I went to the previous year specifically for a larger sample size.

If you read everything I said, you would see that I went to the previous year specifically for a larger sample size.

you didnt put numbers of carries fir 2013 scenarios. still what is your point?. Maybe the few leads they played a crappy defense. i can probably find all runs over combos of tackle, guard, sweep on turf/grass in day/night where he averages 6 yards per carry. Oakland is a drowning pool I agree, but he did lose his job to an UDFA last year. Trying to find numbers that look good dont address that issue.

 

[AsthmaField]

you didnt put numbers of carries fir 2013 scenarios. still what is your point?. Maybe the few leads they played a crappy defense. i can probably find all runs over combos of tackle, guard, sweep on turf/grass in day/night where he averages 6 yards per carry. Oakland is a drowning pool I agree, but he did lose his job to an UDFA last year. Trying to find numbers that look good dont address that issue.

IMO, McFadden lost his job last year because of a few things:

1. The interim coach there wanted to change the culture and shake things up.
2. McFadden was one of the guys he chose to make the change from because DMC had gotten in a rut and simply was no longer excited to be in the NFL playing for Oakland.
3. McFadden is getting older and it was his last year in Oakland and the coaches wanted to go with a younger guy to try to develop someone. 2014 was already ruined, so even if the young guy didn't do as well as McFadden would have... at least you're doing something for the future of the team.

I wasn't crazy about the McFadden pick-up, and I'm still not. However, I don't think much can be gleaned from McFadden getting fewer carries last year.

JMO

 

[Galian Beast]

you didnt put numbers of carries fir 2013 scenarios. still what is your point?. Maybe the few leads they played a crappy defense. i can probably find all runs over combos of tackle, guard, sweep on turf/grass in day/night where he averages 6 yards per carry. Oakland is a drowning pool I agree, but he did lose his job to an UDFA last year. Trying to find numbers that look good dont address that issue.

Actually, I did...

 

[Galian Beast]

IMO, McFadden lost his job last year because of a few things:

1. The interim coach there wanted to change the culture and shake things up.
2. McFadden was one of the guys he chose to make the change from because DMC had gotten in a rut and simply was no longer excited to be in the NFL playing for Oakland.
3. McFadden is getting older and it was his last year in Oakland and the coaches wanted to go with a younger guy to try to develop someone. 2014 was already ruined, so even if the young guy didn't do as well as McFadden would have... at least you're doing something for the future of the team.

I wasn't crazy about the McFadden pick-up, and I'm still not. However, I don't think much can be gleaned from McFadden getting fewer carries last year.

JMO

McFadden had by far the most carries on the Raiders last year.

 

[TheDude]

IMO, McFadden lost his job last year because of a few things:

1. The interim coach there wanted to change the culture and shake things up.
2. McFadden was one of the guys he chose to make the change from because DMC had gotten in a rut and simply was no longer excited to be in the NFL playing for Oakland.
3. McFadden is getting older and it was his last year in Oakland and the coaches wanted to go with a younger guy to try to develop someone. 2014 was already ruined, so even if the young guy didn't do as well as McFadden would have... at least you're doing something for the future of the team.

I wasn't crazy about the McFadden pick-up, and I'm still not. However, I don't think much can be gleaned from McFadden getting fewer carries last year.

JMO

Good points. Im fine with the signing, it is cheap contract - so low risk/high reward. I just hope one of three can get a similar chemistry that DeMarco had. It not quantifiable, but I think that is likely the basis for any potential early struggles in the run game (..and injuries to McFadden or Williams of course)

 

[TheDude]

Actually, I did...

After talking to some people in another thread about running back numbers and how they can be misleading, I wanted to look at the granular stats for McFadden.

When running with a lead McFadden averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year. last year The problem with this number however is that McFadden only ran with a lead for 22 carries last year. When the game was tied he also ran for 4.1 yards per carry though. This only happened under 41 carries though.

McFadden had 92 carries playing from behind. And when he played from behind his numbers dropped to 3 yards per carry. When down 9 or more points, his averages dropped to 2.2 yards per carry. When behind, no one was afraid of that Oakland offense. Period, point blank. One of their best wide receiver couldn't even make this team... (Andre Holmes)

This lead me to want to investigate McFadden a little bit more, and so I did.

You can look at his 2013 numbers and they reveal that this isn't a fluke.

In 2013, with the lead McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry, when behind he averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Tied, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

There were a couple years in which he was actually a pretty good running back. I don't think that was a fluke either. They were the only two years that the Raiders were even remotely good (8-8 both years).

I mean it is entirely possible that he is done as a player or at least done as a special player, but I really think we need to evaluate him going forward on what he does here, and give him somewhat of a pass for Oakland.

He isn't the only player to have struggled there. Randy Moss was actually in a very similar situation. Carson Palmer also struggled in Oakland.

Actually... no you didnt



again

 

[Galian Beast]

Actually... no you didnt



again

You're right I didn't give the total number, I said I established that it wasn't a fluke because it carried over from a previous year.

My point is that you can look at this player and see that he has been on a poor team playing from behind most of his career, and that we shouldn't judge him based on what happened in Oakland. That isn't to suggest he is still the player that was drafted out of college, but he should be given an opportunity here.

 

[TheDude]

You're right I didn't give the total number, I said I established that it wasn't a fluke because it carried over from a previous year.

My point is that you can look at this player and see that he has been on a poor team playing from behind most of his career, and that we shouldn't judge him based on what happened in Oakland. That isn't to suggest he is still the player that was drafted out of college, but he should be given an opportunity here.

Look, I dont mind the signing...low risk, high reward. Oakland is an abyss. Based on last year, I give the staff the benefit of the doubt on bringing him here for a look. My point is is that no stat in a vacuum can lead you to draw an absolute conclusion. .

When running with 0 TEs, McFadden averaged 5.1ypc last year and 6.9 in 2013. Lose Witten and gold, that's what I was trying to allude

 

[AsthmaField]

McFadden had by far the most carries on the Raiders last year.

Yes but in the first 8 games of 2014, McFadden averaged 12.25 carries per game.

In the last 8 games he averaged 7.13 carries per game.

They definitely started giving him the ball less in the second half of the season. That's all I was saying.

 

[sureletsrace]

After talking to some people in another thread about running back numbers and how they can be misleading, I wanted to look at the granular stats for McFadden.

When running with a lead McFadden averaged 4.1 yards per carry last year. The problem with this number however is that McFadden only ran with a lead for 22 carries last year. When the game was tied he also ran for 4.1 yards per carry though. This only happened under 41 carries though.

McFadden had 92 carries playing from behind. And when he played from behind his numbers dropped to 3 yards per carry. When down 9 or more points, his averages dropped to 2.2 yards per carry. When behind, no one was afraid of that Oakland offense. Period, point blank. One of their best wide receiver couldn't even make this team... (Andre Holmes)

This lead me to want to investigate McFadden a little bit more, and so I did.

You can look at his 2013 numbers and they reveal that this isn't a fluke.

In 2013, with the lead McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry, when behind he averaged 1.9 yards per carry. Tied, he averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

There were a couple years in which he was actually a pretty good running back. I don't think that was a fluke either. They were the only two years that the Raiders were even remotely good (8-8 both years).

I mean it is entirely possible that he is done as a player or at least done as a special player, but I really think we need to evaluate him going forward on what he does here, and give him somewhat of a pass for Oakland.

He isn't the only player to have struggled there. Randy Moss was actually in a very similar situation. Carson Palmer also struggled in Oakland.

Keep making interesting, thought provoking threads. Let the "post police" go crawl in a hole somewhere and suffocate.

I guess they don't want new threads coming up because.... I don't know why, actually. Maybe they're jealous because they can't think up things to talk about?

I'm a Cowboys fan, so I like coming onto my Cowboys forum and talking Cowboys on my Cowboys forum. I guess they want to just keep rehashing the same 10 posts all summer long. That sounds boring to me.

Just wanted to give you some encouragement to keep bringing up new stuff. It's nice to log on and see new threads. It's depressing when threads are on the front page for days/weeks.

 

[JDSmith]

GB Should it not be inverse though. You would think when he has a lead or tied teams would be playing the run 1st especially in Oakland. I am just trying to figure out what you are getting at, attitude, losing culture, bad play calling?

All of the above?

 

[Stash]

Thanks. It's generally the same people over and over again. If they're right about a thread not having merit, then that thread will die out quickly. Ironically, many of these same people keep the threads going, and see to be enjoying debating the points brought up in them. I think a lot of people have a personal problem with me rather a dislike of the context of threads I have created, but I don't take anything personal. I could tell someone that they haven't paid attention to a point in one thread, and congratulate them on having a brilliant point in that same thread or another thread. I don't mind except when their trolling derails threads that I think could really further discussion, like they did in the Gregory thread I created.

I very much appreciate the time and effort you're putting into these posts, but there are some that are well-supported and some that are not.

I weigh in on them depending on how I feel they merit response or support a position.

But whether I disagree with you or not, I respect the time and effort you're putting into them as well.

 

[Galian Beast]

Yes but in the first 8 games of 2014, McFadden averaged 12.25 carries per game.

In the last 8 games he averaged 7.13 carries per game.

They definitely started giving him the ball less in the second half of the season. That's all I was saying.

They also got absolutely blown out in 4 games in the second half of the season, which could contribute to running the ball less.