CFZ Interesting scoring trends and what they say about Sun Night’s game

[Bobhaze]

In the lead up to the big game Sun night, here some interesting scoring stats and trends:

• The e-girls have scored a total of 135 points this season, averaging 27 points a game.
• Amazingly, they have scored 92 of those points in the second quarter.
• Interestingly, the only NFC team scoring more than the e-girls so far are the lions with 140 points, a team they squeaked by 38-35 on opening day.
• The e-girls have averaged 18 points in the second qtr. They have been so far ahead at halftime of most of their games, scoring has not been an issue in the second half.
  
• Filly has only averaged scoring about 6 points a game in the second half. Usually because they were ahead double digits.
• Filly has only trailed at the half in one game- week 4 against the Jags.

The Cowboys also have some interesting trends regarding scoring:

• The Cowboys have scored 93 points, averaging 18.6 points a game.
  
• The Cowboys best quarter for scoring has been the first qtr, scoring 32 of their total of 93.
• The third qtr has been our worst, only scoring 13 total points.
  
• Defensively, the Cowboys have only surrendered 11 total points in the 4th quarter all season, and 8 of those were against the bengals in week 2.

The obvious take away seems to be if we can withstand an eagles barrage early- especially in the 2nd qtr- it changes the trajectory of how the game unfolds. If we are at least close at half, our chances are very good. If we get to the 4th with the lead, chances are excellent for a win.

 

[TWOK11]

If you look at the numbers and especially more advanced analytics, two things become immediately clear:

One, defenses figure the Eagles out over the course of a game and in the second half their offense is usually neutered. There’s a lot more to this than just “oh they’re blowing teams out and falling on the ball”. Pretty much everything they try to do appears to essentially stop working about mid way through the third quarter.

Second, on a larger scale the Eagles are already started down the path that all RPO-heavy offenses centered around a mobile QB who struggles reading defenses end up going in the NFL. Once there is a lot of game film defensive coordinators start to recognize where the ball will go on any given play (because there are relatively few reads on any given play) and start taking those options away. As the year goes on Hurts completion percentage and YPA will drop, their YPC will drop and Hurts will end up running more and more as a final option when the RPO reads get taken away. Usually this ends with the mobile QB getting hurt, but even if it doesn’t these offenses just aren’t sustainable.

Hurts still can’t read a defense from the pocket. Let’s take Dak, who many on this board insist can’t do this either. Well the difference between Dak over his career and Hurts JUST THIS SEASON in the pocket on non-RPO plays is greater than the difference between Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, statistically speaking. Almost ALL of Hurts production comes outside the pocket or on RPOs. If you get him in long down and distances and in traditional drop back situations, he’s a bottom 5 QB.

 

[Bobhaze]

Some good points here about Hurts that I agree with. But I don’t agree that defenses “figure out” the eagles offense in the second half. I think the e-girls have been so far ahead on so many games at half that they just let off the gas. They were up 24-0 vs wash at the half. They have scored a ton in the 2nd qtr which has let them ease up in the 2nd.

 

[Irv88]

Bob, fantastic analysis!

 

[TWOK11]

Some good points here about Hurts that I agree with. But I don’t agree that defenses “figure out” the eagles offense in the second half. I think the e-girls have been so far ahead on so many games at half that they just let off the gas. They were up 24-0 vs wash at the half. They have scored a ton in the 2nd qtr which has let them ease up in the 2nd.

The thing is, their YPP drop with everything they try to do in the second half. It’s not just a matter of them running and teams knowing they are running. On every concept they try to execute production drops. Moreover, in the games that have been competitive in the second half their production still falls off a cliff.

 

[Bobhaze]

The thing is, their YPP drop with everything they try to do in the second half. It’s not just a matter of them running and teams knowing they are running. On every concept they try to execute production drops. Moreover, in the games that have been competitive in the second half their production still falls off a cliff.

The thing is…you may be right. But when you’re up 20 in the 3rd qtr, it changes a ton of what your offense chooses to do. All I’m saying is in 5 games where the e-gals were up usually double digits at half, it’s hard to say that opposing defenses figured them out in the second half when they still won those games.

 

[RonnieT24]

The thing is…you may be right. But when you’re up 20 in the 3rd qtr, it changes a ton of what your offense chooses to do. All I’m saying is in 5 games where the e-gals were up usually double digits at half, it’s hard to say that opposing defenses figured them out in the second half when they still won those games.

I would not be so quick to dismiss what dude is saying about the Eagles second half struggles. They were up 14-10 on the Cardinals at the half and 20-16 against the Jags. That aint "double digits" and as he stated they still didn't exactly light those teams up despite it being a one score game at the half. I do think there is validity to the notion that theirs is a gimmick offense that teams have shown the ability to draw bead on as the game wore on. At least JAX and AZ did.

 

[Bobhaze]

I would not be so quick to dismiss what dude is saying about the Eagles second half struggles. They were up 14-10 on the Cardinals at the half and 20-16 against the Jags. That aint "double digits" and as he stated they still didn't exactly light those teams up despite it being a one score game at the half. I do think there is validity to the notion that theirs is a gimmick offense that teams have shown the ability to draw bead on as the game wore on. At least JAX and AZ did.

I’m not at all dismissing them. I’m just saying being up at halftime in 4 of 5 games is a big influence on play calling.

 

[Creeper]

In the lead up to the big game Sun night, here some interesting scoring stats and trends:

• The e-girls have scored a total of 135 points this season, averaging 27 points a game.
• Amazingly, they have scored 92 of those points in the second quarter.
• Interestingly, the only NFC team scoring more than the e-girls so far are the lions with 140 points, a team they squeaked by 38-35 on opening day.
• The e-girls have averaged 18 points in the second qtr. They have been so far ahead at halftime of most of their games, scoring has not been an issue in the second half.
  
• Filly has only averaged scoring about 6 points a game in the second half. Usually because they were ahead double digits.
• Filly has only trailed at the half in one game- week 4 against the Jags.

The Cowboys also have some interesting trends regarding scoring:

• The Cowboys have scored 93 points, averaging 18.6 points a game.
  
• The Cowboys best quarter for scoring has been the first qtr, scoring 32 of their total of 93.
• The third qtr has been our worst, only scoring 13 total points.
  
• Defensively, the Cowboys have only surrendered 11 total points in the 4th quarter all season, and 8 of those were against the bengals in week 2.

The obvious take away seems to be if we can withstand an eagles barrage early- especially in the 2nd qtr- it changes the trajectory of how the game unfolds. If we are at least close at half, our chances are very good. If we get to the 4th with the lead, chances are excellent for a win.

Good stuff but I think we can throw out all the stats for this game. It boils down to two things this week. Can the Cowboys run the football and stop the run? If not the Eagles will win.

 

[Jake]

In the lead up to the big game Sun night, here some interesting scoring stats and trends:

• The e-girls have scored a total of 135 points this season, averaging 27 points a game.
• Amazingly, they have scored 92 of those points in the second quarter.
• Interestingly, the only NFC team scoring more than the e-girls so far are the lions with 140 points, a team they squeaked by 38-35 on opening day.
• The e-girls have averaged 18 points in the second qtr. They have been so far ahead at halftime of most of their games, scoring has not been an issue in the second half.
  
• Filly has only averaged scoring about 6 points a game in the second half. Usually because they were ahead double digits.
• Filly has only trailed at the half in one game- week 4 against the Jags.

The Cowboys also have some interesting trends regarding scoring:

• The Cowboys have scored 93 points, averaging 18.6 points a game.
  
• The Cowboys best quarter for scoring has been the first qtr, scoring 32 of their total of 93.
• The third qtr has been our worst, only scoring 13 total points.
  
• Defensively, the Cowboys have only surrendered 11 total points in the 4th quarter all season, and 8 of those were against the bengals in week 2.

The obvious take away seems to be if we can withstand an eagles barrage early- especially in the 2nd qtr- it changes the trajectory of how the game unfolds. If we are at least close at half, our chances are very good. If we get to the 4th with the lead, chances are excellent for a win.

Primetime games this season have been going under a lot. The number on this game feels low (42) but I wouldn't bet it with someone else's money.

Too many question marks for me, but it also makes the match up interesting.

 

[CWR]

In the lead up to the big game Sun night, here some interesting scoring stats and trends:

• The e-girls have scored a total of 135 points this season, averaging 27 points a game.
• Amazingly, they have scored 92 of those points in the second quarter.
• Interestingly, the only NFC team scoring more than the e-girls so far are the lions with 140 points, a team they squeaked by 38-35 on opening day.
• The e-girls have averaged 18 points in the second qtr. They have been so far ahead at halftime of most of their games, scoring has not been an issue in the second half.
  
• Filly has only averaged scoring about 6 points a game in the second half. Usually because they were ahead double digits.
• Filly has only trailed at the half in one game- week 4 against the Jags.

The Cowboys also have some interesting trends regarding scoring:

• The Cowboys have scored 93 points, averaging 18.6 points a game.
  
• The Cowboys best quarter for scoring has been the first qtr, scoring 32 of their total of 93.
• The third qtr has been our worst, only scoring 13 total points.
  
• Defensively, the Cowboys have only surrendered 11 total points in the 4th quarter all season, and 8 of those were against the bengals in week 2.

The obvious take away seems to be if we can withstand an eagles barrage early- especially in the 2nd qtr- it changes the trajectory of how the game unfolds. If we are at least close at half, our chances are very good. If we get to the 4th with the lead, chances are excellent for a win.

The reason their scoring is down late is because they build a lead and hold. They won't play well from behind. If we can score early, they will be in trouble.

 

[Bobhaze]

Primetime games this season have been going under a lot. The number on this game feels low (42) but I wouldn't bet it with someone else's money.

Too many question marks for me, but it also makes the match up interesting.

The reason their scoring is down late is because they build a lead and hold. They won't play well from behind. If we can score early, they will be in trouble.

This is a very interesting matchup. Seems like an obvious key for Dallas is to not let the eagles have a big first half and get a double digit lead going into 3rd qtr. Cooper Rush is probably not the guy you want slinging it around if you’re down two scores.

 

[CWR]

This is a very interesting matchup. Seems like an obvious key for Dallas is to not let the eagles have a big first half and get a double digit lead going into 3rd qtr. Cooper Rush is probably not the guy you want slinging it around if you’re down two scores.

I think Dak is gonna make a push to play, although I don't believe it will happen. I hope they come out aggressive with Rush. Philly is gonna be geared up to stop our run. Send em on a couple early play action passes and the run game will fall into place.

 

[Whirlwin]

Good job thank you

 

[Whirlwin]

I’m glad Cooper Rush is the starting quarterback coming Sunday night. If he loses it will be OK no one can expect him not to lose eventually. If Prescott comes in and loses everyone will want to say. Should’ve kept Cooper Rush in there. This is a smart move on the franchise even if Prescott isn’t ready

 

[Bobhaze]

I’m glad Cooper Rush is the starting quarterback coming Sunday night. If he loses it will be OK no one can expect him not to lose eventually. If Prescott comes in and loses everyone will want to say. Should’ve kept Cooper Rush in there. This is a smart move on the franchise even if Prescott isn’t ready

Agreed. I don’t think Dak will be game ready for a week or two more.
The thing we must hope doesn’t happen Sunday night is get behind to the point where Rush will be forced to throw it 40 times. That’s probably an L for us.

 

[Zman5]

If you look at the numbers and especially more advanced analytics, two things become immediately clear:

Hurts still can’t read a defense from the pocket. Let’s take Dak, who many on this board insist can’t do this either. Well the difference between Dak over his career and Hurts JUST THIS SEASON in the pocket on non-RPO plays is greater than the difference between Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield, statistically speaking. Almost ALL of Hurts production comes outside the pocket or on RPOs. If you get him in long down and distances and in traditional drop back situations, he’s a bottom 5 QB.

You are probably right about reading defenses. I've read he's 27th in passing when blitzed.

 

[Frosty]

Good stuff but I think we can throw out all the stats for this game. It boils down to two things this week. Can the Cowboys run the football and stop the run? If not the Eagles will win.

Thats the Million dollar question.....you know the Eagles are gonna try their darnest to stop the run and force Rush to beat them.....but my concern is the defense....the Cowboys are gonna be forced to have a great game if they have a chance...stopping AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith aint no easy feat......Parson, Gallimore, and DLAW, need to rattle Hurts early and often to give the Cowboys a chance. Miles Sanders is gonna get his yards and I suspect DQ will put a spy on Hurts all game, but that leaves Diggs and Brown on an island....

It will come down to the defenses,,,,,which defense dominates..... my guess it is a low scoring game with over under of 27 Total pts.

 

[Longboysfan]

Stop the run first.
Cover 1 v 1 well especially Against their TE.

 

[Bobhaze]

Thats the Million dollar question.....you know the Eagles are gonna try their darnest to stop the run and force Rush to beat them.....but my concern is the defense....the Cowboys are gonna be forced to have a great game if they have a chance...stopping AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith aint no easy feat......Parson, Gallimore, and DLAW, need to rattle Hurts early and often to give the Cowboys a chance. Miles Sanders is gonna get his yards and I suspect DQ will put a spy on Hurts all game, but that leaves Diggs and Brown on an island....

It will come down to the defenses,,,,,which defense dominates..... my guess it is a low scoring game with over under of 27 Total pts.

A low scoring game gives us the best chance for sure.