Is a top 5 offense enough to make the playoffs?

[85Cowboy85]

How are you ranking the offenses/defenses here? Total yardage?

 

[TwoDeep3]

Yea you're right. Shoot outs are tough to win.

I suspect most teams will want to run the ball down their throats & keep our o off the field. Although on second thought we have a suspect secondary.

Sort of like Mike Tyson. Which do you want? The right or the left?

 

[TwoDeep3]

The offense was good enough last year to make playoffs with an extremely bad defense.

Then why didn't they?

 

[tyke1doe]

Then why didn't they?

Play calling.

Which is why I highlighted a run-oriented offense in my question. No way we should have been throwing the ball as much as we did against Green Bay. The offense kept us in contention for a playoff spot because the defense didn't do anything. But we didn't create balance on offense. If we don't do that this season, no way we sniff the playoffs.

 

[DuDa]

How are you ranking the offenses/defenses here? Total yardage?

Total yardage.

 

[KJJ]

It's enough to make the Super Bowl and get blown out by a team with a defense.

It was enough for Denver to make the SB because they averaged 37.9 points per game which was the second highest in NFL history plus their defense wasn't as bad as the Cowboys. It took almost 38 points a game and Manning setting NFL records for yards and TD's for Denver to overcome their defense until the SB where their poor defensive play caught up with them. The 3 teams that have averaged the most points in NFL history the 1950 Rams, 2013 Broncos and 07 Pats all lost championship games those seasons. All 3 teams scored well below what they averaged those seasons in their championship games.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

This team was good enough to make the playoffs the last 3 years ( at least in this division)but bad coaching and mental mistakes cost them. I don't really think anything has changed.

 

[Apollo Creed]

No. This defense will shatter records and not in a good way.

They've already begun the spin and tried to lower expectations. Red talking about not to expect much, but that they'll fight.

Which is pathetic because in a league designed to create parity you can go from worst to first in a blink of an eye with a talented QB, ask KC and CAR.

They're all out of excuses and the fans are all outta patience, this season could get ugly.

 

[reddyuta]

I think this offense has the capability to be top 5 but they wont make,they are too inconsistent,they still commit extremely ill timed penalties and they still cant beat the blitz.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Total yardage.

Why did you use scoring on offense but yardage on defense?

I think our best chance is to have a mini-version of that Saints team that won the Superbowl -- great offense with a defense that gives up a lot of yards (I think that's unavoidable) but gets a lot of turnovers.

Now that particular quality is highly variable, not teachable (contrary to the majority of media that year who acted like Gregg Williams had figured out how to teach turnovers), and not indicative of a better-run organization... But for one year, it could happen.

 

[KJJ]

If the Cowboys plan is to try and pound the ball to keep the defense off the field they won't come close to being a top 5 offense. Trying to maintain possession by running the ball will keep their score down and the Cowboys don't have the defense to win close games in the 4th quarter. This team isn't going to win crap this season with a 4 yards and a cloud of dust offense. Murray isn't a ball control type of back because he has too many negative carries. For every 2-3 positive carries he has a negative carry. He's not a north/south runner he's a cutback runner who likes to reverse field looking for daylight. His style of running has created some big plays and a number of negative plays.

The Cowboys commit far too many penalties on offense to be a ball control offense. They constantly shoot themselves in the foot with one penalty after another putting them in long down situations because they're not a disciplined team. For the Cowboys to have any chance this season they have to be a prolific scoring offense with Dez producing a number of big plays/TD's in the passing game. The Cowboys are going to have to jump on opponents and hope they'll make mistakes. The only way the Cowboys defense can stop anyone is by creating turnovers and you have the best chance of creating them when you're forcing opponents to have to play from behind.

 

[DuDa]

Why did you use scoring on offense but yardage on defense?

I didn't, I used yardage for both.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I didn't, I used yardage for both.

Weren't we like 16th on offense in yards?

(Not that that would invalidate your idea that we're not making the playoffs.)

Also, someone, I think hoofbite, has pointed out that we were near the top in field position last year, and our offense can't expect to get that same boost from our defense and special teams this year.

 

[Clove]

Firstly, I don't think we have a dominant offense, personally. I think our offense is maybe top ten, because we always put up numbers, just can't move the offense smoothly. We score in chunks, but not throughout the game. If you aren't scoring every other drive, or in position to score every drive, then you are not, IMO, a dominant offense. We make far too many penalties, we usually call 1 stupid play that will net us a loss putting us in 3rd and long. Taking too long on reads creating unnecessarily pressure and sacks, throwing the ball away. Not passing too much, not running too much, just being balanced.

Defensively, it's obvious just from what we saw that we have a lower-tier defense. There's no way to generate pressure since you got rid of your home grown hall of fame pass rusher. So this what we wanted as fans, don't freaking complain about how much we suck at getting QB pressure, unless of course, someone steps up.

So having said all of that, I have no clue of who we are going to be, except I'm pretty sure we're not a playoff team once again. And if we're not, I'd rather go 3 and something to assure us a top 3 pick, maybe having a chance to get a fresh new QB.

 

[punchnjudy]

If the Cowboys plan is to try and pound the ball to keep the defense off the field they won't come close to being a top 5 offense. Trying to maintain possession by running the ball will keep their score down and the Cowboys don't have the defense to win close games in the 4th quarter. This team isn't going to win crap this season with a 4 yards and a cloud of dust offense. Murray isn't a ball control type of back because he has too many negative carries. For every 2-3 positive carries he has a negative carry. He's not a north/south runner he's a cutback runner who likes to reverse field looking for daylight. His style of running has created some big plays and a number of negative plays.

The Cowboys commit far too many penalties on offense to be a ball control offense. They constantly shoot themselves in the foot with one penalty after another putting them in long down situations because they're not a disciplined team. For the Cowboys to have any chance this season they have to be a prolific scoring offense with Dez producing a number of big plays/TD's in the passing game. The Cowboys are going to have to jump on opponents and hope they'll make mistakes. The only way the Cowboys defense can stop anyone is by creating turnovers and you have the best chance of creating them when you're forcing opponents to have to play from behind.

Agreed. You need a defense that complements that style of offense and the Cowboys don't have it. A ball control offense can work for a team like Carolina, not a team with a defense that frequently blows 4th quarter leads. There will be occasions (ie. a big lead against a mediocre offense) where it makes sense to grind it out, but not as an across the board kinda strategy.

 

[StevenOtero]

It was enough for Denver to make the SB because they averaged 37.9 points per game which was the second highest in NFL history plus their defense wasn't as bad as the Cowboys. It took almost 38 points a game and Manning setting NFL records for yards and TD's for Denver to overcome their defense until the SB where their poor defensive play caught up with them. The 3 teams that have averaged the most points in NFL history the 1950 Rams, 2013 Broncos and 07 Pats all lost championship games those seasons. All 3 teams scored well below what they averaged those seasons in their championship games.

I know, my comment was nothing more than a throw away post.

I agree with you.

 

[DuDa]

Weren't we like 16th on offense in yards?

(Not that that would invalidate your idea that we're not making the playoffs.)

Also, someone, I think hoofbite, has pointed out that we were near the top in field position last year, and our offense can't expect to get that same boost from our defense and special teams this year.

Yes but I was implying that we MIGHT be a top 5 offense this season, not last.

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

This team was good enough to make the playoffs the last 3 years ( at least in this division)but bad coaching and mental mistakes cost them. I don't really think anything has changed.

Yea, but we're building sumpin special here that will guarantee long term success.

Marvin Lewis has been building sumpin special in Cincy too. Who wants that tho?

 

[CCBoy]

My crystal ball is getting some natural interference...so I'll just enjoy my Cowboys when they are good. Then root for them when they are not so good.

 

[TheEnigma]

I saw a thread the other day by StarOfGlory that motivated me to do a little research of my own and see how deep teams got that possessed a top 5 offense. I went back 10 years and added up all the top 5 offensive teams that made the playoffs. I very excited to find that 36 out of 50 (72%) of those teams made the playoffs.

Some of you might be wondering how many of those 36 teams had a bottom 5 defense like the Cowboys will likely have. I was a little surprised to find that only 7 of 50 teams that possessed a top 5 offense and a bottom defense made the playoffs. Of those 7 teams, exactly zero has won or even appeared in a Super Bowl.

This whole stat thing just took a wrong turn for our Cowboys.

But wait, we have DeMarco Murray and a new offensive coordinator that will run the ball more to keep our putrid defense off the field. Nice try; only 2 of those 7 teams sported a top 5 running game.

There are lots of predictions from so called experts that like to chime in with their little opinions but I tend to look at the facts. The Cowboys MIGHT have a top 5 offense and probably have a bottom 5 defense. The last 10 years of statistics tells us the Cowboys only have a 14% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning a Super Bowl.

I will hope and pray that our Cowboys can defy the odds but it doesn’t look very good at this point in time.

The numbers in your conclusion are off if the data you posted is correct.

I think you are saying that out of the 50 top 5 offenses in the last 10 years, 36 made the playoffs with 7 of those having a top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense. You didn't say how many of the teams that didn't make the playoffs had a bottom 5 defense in addition to their top 5 offense.

Assuming all 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs had a bottom 5 defense, that means that 33% if the teams in the last 10 years that had a top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense made the playoffs. I'm pretty sure that number is actually higher.