Is a top 5 offense enough to make the playoffs?

[TheEnigma]

Just to clarify my point, I think you are looking for our chances of making the playoffs with a top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense. You need to compare how many teams that met both criteria made the playoffs vs those that didn't make it.

 

[percyhoward]

I think our best chance is to have a mini-version of that Saints team that won the Superbowl -- great offense with a defense that gives up a lot of yards (I think that's unavoidable) but gets a lot of turnovers.

Now that particular quality is highly variable, not teachable (contrary to the majority of media that year who acted like Gregg Williams had figured out how to teach turnovers), and not indicative of a better-run organization... But for one year, it could happen.

The thing about that 2009 Saints D--it wasn't just the turnovers. They were a great red zone defense that year (3rd in the NFL). They finished top 5 in both INT and passing TD allowed, which put them at 3rd in defensive pass rating.

To put it in perspective, the only time Dallas ever had a defense that accomplished that (top 5 in all those categories) was 1970.

But on the subject of turnover luck, if everything falls into place, there's no reason we couldn't be a top 20 defense. In 2006, our D ranked 20th in defensive pass rating, and 22nd in points allowed per drive, and we made the playoffs. (The offense was 8th and 3rd in those categories.)

 

[KJJ]

Just to clarify my point, I think you are looking for our chances of making the playoffs with a top 5 offense and bottom 5 defense. You need to compare how many teams that met both criteria made the playoffs vs those that didn't make it.

The Cowboys were not only one of the bottom 5 defenses last season they were one of the bottom 5 defenses of all-time. See how many teams you can name that made the playoffs having an historically bad defense.

 

[Supercowboy1986]

Is a top 5 offense enough to withstand possibly the worst defense of all time? Probably not.

2012 Saints anyone?

Beat me to it. 2012 saints won the SB.

 

[KJJ]

There will be occasions (ie. a big lead against a mediocre offense) where it makes sense to grind it out, but not as an across the board kinda strategy.

If the defense is anything like last years the Cowboys won't be able to grind it out sitting on any kind of lead. We saw a 23 point lead evaporate in no time vs GB last season in a game where Murray rushed for 131 yards. We saw an 11 point lead vanish vs San Diego in a game the Chargers ended up winning by 9 points. No lead is safe with the Cowboys defense on the field. Murray gashed the Bears last season for 148 yards but the Bears scored on every possession they had resulting in a blowout win for Chicago. With the loss of Ware and Hatcher the Cowboys will have very little pass rush this season.

Opponents not having to account for Ware is going to make the Cowboys defense even easier to dissect. If the refs continue into the regular season calling illegal contact as tightly as they did during the preseason the Cowboys are going to hit with one illegal contact call after another. The Cowboys offense is going to have to stay aggressive and hope they can score enough points to overcome all the defensive breakdowns we're going to see during the season.

 

[TheEnigma]

The Cowboys were not only one of the bottom 5 defenses last season they were one of the bottom 5 defenses of all-time. See how many teams you can name that made the playoffs having an historically bad defense.

As of today, our chances of making the playoffs last year is 0%.

Will we have another historically bad defense this year? It's possible, but nobody knows for sure. You cannot make statements of fact about the future based on past statistics. It's why the super bowl isn't awarded at the start of the season.

 

[WPBCowboysFan]

My crystal ball is getting some natural interference...so I'll just enjoy my Cowboys when they are good. Then root for them when they are not so good.

I like that CC. Don't see anywhere where complaining is on that menu!

 

[DFWJC]

I saw a thread the other day by StarOfGlory that motivated me to do a little research of my own and see how deep teams got that possessed a top 5 offense. I went back 10 years and added up all the top 5 offensive teams that made the playoffs. I very excited to find that 36 out of 50 (72%) of those teams made the playoffs.

Some of you might be wondering how many of those 36 teams had a bottom 5 defense like the Cowboys will likely have. I was a little surprised to find that only 7 of 50 teams that possessed a top 5 offense and a bottom defense made the playoffs. Of those 7 teams, exactly zero has won or even appeared in a Super Bowl.

This whole stat thing just took a wrong turn for our Cowboys.

But wait, we have DeMarco Murray and a new offensive coordinator that will run the ball more to keep our putrid defense off the field. Nice try; only 2 of those 7 teams sported a top 5 running game.

There are lots of predictions from so called experts that like to chime in with their little opinions but I tend to look at the facts. The Cowboys MIGHT have a top 5 offense and probably have a bottom 5 defense. The last 10 years of statistics tells us the Cowboys only have a 14% chance of making the playoffs and a 0% chance of winning a Super Bowl.

I will hope and pray that our Cowboys can defy the odds but it doesn’t look very good at this point in time.

Depends on just how terrible the defense is...especially scoring-wise. Or, you have a bad defense but if they get a ton of turnovers a good offense can carry you the rest of the way. See New Orleans and Green Bay teams recently as examples.

If the defense is anywhere close to middle of the pack, it could e interesting.

 

[percyhoward]

Also, someone, I think hoofbite, has pointed out that we were near the top in field position last year, and our offense can't expect to get that same boost from our defense and special teams this year.

We had great average starting field position last year, and we scored a lot of points, but that doesn't necessarily mean those two things were connected. When you actually break down the drives based on their starting points, you see that we often didn't take advantage of good field position. Of course, this was only a small percentage of all drives.

Drive began / Dallas rank in TD%
inside own 35 (85% of all drives) / 3rd
outside own 35 (15% of all drives) / 6th
in opponent's territory (13% of all drives) / 19th
inside opponent's 35 (6% of all drives) / 13th

Our high ranking in scoring was all about red zone efficiency, not advantageous field position. If you take all the drives that averaged starting at the offense's own 20-yard line (from their own 1 to their own 35), we were 3rd (behind Denver and NO) in the percentage of drives that ended in touchdowns.

 

[KJJ]

As of today, our chances of making the playoffs last year is 0%.

Will we have another historically bad defense this year? It's possible, but nobody knows for sure. You cannot make statements of fact about the future based on past statistics. It's why the super bowl isn't awarded at the start of the season.

I didn't say anything about the Cowboys having an historically bad defense this year. My comment had to do with last season. We won't know how bad the defense will be this year until the season starts on Sunday. I do know from what we've seen the past couple of seasons on defense and from what we saw during the preseason the defense certainly won't be good.

The Cowboys lost too many key players defensively from last season to improve. You don't lose two of your top pass rushers from last season, your int leader and have to do without arguably your best corner for the first 4 games this season and get better.

 

[punchnjudy]

If the defense is anything like last years the Cowboys won't be able to grind it out sitting on any kind of lead. We saw a 23 point lead evaporate in no time vs GB last season in a game where Murray rushed for 131 yards. We saw an 11 point lead vanish vs San Diego in a game the Chargers ended up winning by 9 points. No lead is safe with the Cowboys defense on the field. Murray gashed the Bears last season for 148 yards but the Bears scored on every possession they had resulting in a blowout win for Chicago. With the loss of Ware and Hatcher the Cowboys will have very little pass rush this season.

Opponents not having to account for Ware is going to make the Cowboys defense even easier to dissect. If the refs continue into the regular season calling illegal contact as tightly as they did during the preseason the Cowboys are going to hit with one illegal contact call after another. The Cowboys offense is going to have to stay aggressive and hope they can score enough points to overcome all the defensive breakdowns we're going to see during the season.

I was thinking along the lines of cases where they're up 3 scores in the second half against the likes of Ryan Tannehill. Then again, Matt Flynn isn't too far from that so maybe not...

I'd love it if Garrett would hire the best math geeks available out of MIT and have them determine the probabilities for winning/losing based on whether a team with a roster like this punts the ball or goes for it. I guess you'd have to give the defense a few games to see how bad they are, but if they turn out to be a sieve and the offense plays to their expectations then that could make for interesting strategy decisions.

 

[KJJ]

I was thinking along the lines of cases where they're up 3 scores in the second half against the likes of Ryan Tannehill. Then again, Matt Flynn isn't too far from that so maybe not...

I'd love it if Garrett would hire the best math geeks available out of MIT and have them determine the probabilities for winning/losing based on whether a team with a roster like this punts the ball or goes for it. I guess you'd have to give the defense a few games to see how bad they are, but if they turn out to be a sieve and the offense plays to their expectations then that could make for interesting strategy decisions.

I doubt we'll see many games with the Cowboys up by 3 scores in the second half this season. The defense has made some pretty average QB's look like Hall of Famers so I wouldn't find even a 3 score lead with only 8 minutes to play comfortable. I've lost track of how many times the Cowboys offense has scored a TD only to watch the defense give it right back in only a few plays. The Cowboys will be fielding one of the least talented defenses I can remember from a Cowboys team. The only glimmer of hope the defense has is if 2-3 players really step up and become a force this season and the players are able to adapt to Marinelli's scheme.

Some of the defensive issues the Cowboys have had have been a result of players being confused and out of position. It happened under Ryan and Kiffin and it led to a number of busted coverages the past 2 seasons. If we continue to see players out of position the defense will be just as bad as last season if not worse. It's going to take players stepping up and some great coaching to avoid another defensive nightmare this season.

 

[KJJ]

I'd love it if Garrett would hire the best math geeks available out of MIT and have them determine the probabilities for winning/losing based on whether a team with a roster like this punts the ball or goes for it.

The media and late night pundit's would have a field day with that especially if the Cowboys end up 5-11. A hire like that would provide unlimited material for anyone looking for a good laugh.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

It's enough to make the Super Bowl and get blown out by a team with a defense.

That sounds a lot better than going 8-8 to miss the post season though.

 

[StarBoyz83]

That sounds a lot better than going 8-8 to miss the post season though.

No way. Id rather miss the playoffs then lose the superbowl. Thats a huge fail!

 

[cml750]

This team was good enough to make the playoffs the last 3 years ( at least in this division)but bad coaching and mental mistakes cost them. I don't really think anything has changed.

This!!!! When your coach cost you at least two games a season it is hard to make the playoffs!!!

 

[Beast_from_East]

This!!!! When your coach cost you at least two games a season it is hard to make the playoffs!!!

Excellent point.

 

[Idgit]

How can these two replies:

The thing about that 2009 Saints D--it wasn't just the turnovers. They were a great red zone defense that year (3rd in the NFL). They finished top 5 in both INT and passing TD allowed, which put them at 3rd in defensive pass rating.

To put it in perspective, the only time Dallas ever had a defense that accomplished that (top 5 in all those categories) was 1970.

But on the subject of turnover luck, if everything falls into place, there's no reason we couldn't be a top 20 defense. In 2006, our D ranked 20th in defensive pass rating, and 22nd in points allowed per drive, and we made the playoffs. (The offense was 8th and 3rd in those categories.)

This!!!! When your coach cost you at least two games a season it is hard to make the playoffs!!!

Exist on the same forum--in the same thread--and the second one be the one that gets the 'excellent point' response? Am I on crazy pills or something?

 

[CCBoy]

How can these two replies:





Exist on the same forum--in the same thread--and the second one be the one that gets the 'excellent point' response? Am I on crazy pills or something?

No, you have good observation skills in the additional face of anal retentive reflexes...

 

[cml750]

How can these two replies:





Exist on the same forum--in the same thread--and the second one be the one that gets the 'excellent point' response? Am I on crazy pills or something?

Well if our coach had the slightest bit of clock management skills we would have made the playoffs the last three years. One more win would have put us in and Garrett cost us at least two a season. I know you think differently but I have to call them like I see them. Look, I sincerely hope Garrett finally gets it this year but I have my doubts based on his history.

BTW - Its not crazy pills it is your rose colored glasses.