Is Dak an elite Top 5 Quarterback?

[Johannes44]

Of course. Let's not pretend Allen wasn't given freebies by Joe Burrow's 2 late picks on back-to-back offensive drives

Are turnovers automatically assessed as 7 points or does the offense still need to do something to score? If so I'm not sure what point is being made here. The Bills defense got a turn over on consecutive drives by the Bengals and the Bills offense didn't waste the opportunity.

 

[kramskoi]

Out of interest where is Cousins in there - he probably has a higher QBR than some of those quarterbacks when he's a garbage, run of the mill regular season progress stopper.

Cousins has a higher passer rating than Peyton Manning so...again, I do not understand the fascination with people comparing quarterbacks on different teams. They play with different players, different offensive lines, different coaches, in different divisions and conferences against different opposition.

Career QBR:

Kirk Cousins [56.76]

 

[Swagger]

Career QBR:

Kirk Cousins [56.76]

Yet he has a higher passer rating than Dan Marino and Peyton Manning...There are differing QBRs as well with varying criteria. They are all only projections so I just cannot take them overly seriously as the quarterbacks are playing in completely different environments. A more accurate way to review performance is to assess the win/loss % of different quarterbacks playing with the same players and coaches. Even that has its limitations but at least the quarterbacks are playing with the same resources around them.

 

[MountaineerCowboy]

Yet he has a higher passer rating than Dan Marino and Peyton Manning...There are differing QBRs as well with varying criteria. They are all only projections so I just cannot take them overly seriously as the quarterbacks are playing in completely different environments. A more accurate way to review performance is to assess the win/loss % of different quarterbacks playing with the same players and coaches. Even that has its limitations but at least the quarterbacks are playing with the same resources around them.

I can’t take any stat seriously where you can have games where you can throw 25 passes right into the dirt, go 0-25 passing, and finish with a higher grade than someone that throws a couple INTs.

 

[Swagger]

Are turnovers automatically assessed as 7 points or does the offense still need to do something to score? If so I'm not sure what point is being made here. The Bills defense got a turn over on consecutive drives by the Bengals and the Bills offense didn't waste the opportunity.

One was a pick six but the other turnover was capitalised on by Allen and the offense. The Bills had the ball around the half way line in the 4th quarter with a min 40 seconds remaining and one timeout. So people who want to downplay his performance can take away the 7 points as Allen still had ample time to get them within field goal range and win the game 35-34 points after he made another huge play on 3rd and 15.

It's just funny as other quarterbacks aren't allowed to benefit from any defensive plays even when their defense allowed 34 points and the quarterback basically has a WR4 as his WR1!

Whereas people moan that Dak needs more around him on offense even with arguably two top 10 receivers in the entire league, a good running back, a solid tight end and countless premium draft picks pumped into the offensive line!

 

[Johannes44]

One was a pick six but the other turnover was capitalised on by Allen and the offense. The Bills had the ball around the half way line in the 4th quarter with a min 40 seconds remaining and one timeout. So people who want to downplay his performance can take away the 7 points as Allen still had ample time to get them within field goal range and win the game 35-34 points after he made another huge play on 3rd and 15.

It's just funny as other quarterbacks aren't allowed to benefit from any defensive plays even when their defense allowed 34 points and the quarterback basically has a WR4 as his WR1!

Whereas people moan that Dak needs more around him on offense even with arguably two top 10 receivers in the entire league, a good running back, a solid tight end and countless premium draft picks pumped into the offensive line!

It's always going to be "something is missing" with the Dak crowd. Last year it was - he needs another stud receiver to throw to and a running back. This year it's the - does not have a defense excuse. Next year it will be something else. Meanwhile the results will continue being the same. Nothing to do but sit back and enjoy the ride or lack of one.

 

[Swagger]

It's always going to be "something is missing" with the Dak crowd. Last year it was - he needs another stud receiver to throw to and a running back. This year it's the - does not have a defense excuse. Next year it will be something else. Meanwhile the results will continue being the same. Nothing to do but sit back and enjoy the ride or lack of one.

Agree.

It's a shame as the Cowboys are in a position to actually make positive changes with all the draft capital but it's just so difficult with Dak Prescott's contract. $231 million guaranteed over 4 years is a hard weight to overcome when the actual production is arguably similar to what a Mayfield or Darnold would produce with these resources but for half the salary.

 

[Johannes44]

Agree.

It's a shame as the Cowboys are in a position to actually make positive changes with all the draft capital but it's just so difficult with Dak Prescott's contract. $231 million guaranteed over 4 years is a hard weight to overcome when the actual production is arguably similar to what a Mayfield or Darnold would produce with these resources but for half the salary.

That contract basically hobbled this team for the next half a decade. They can't even trade the guy because no one in their right mind would touch that.

 

[G2]

Drrrrrrrrrrrp!

 

[kramskoi]

Prescott is the only one on your list who has never even won a single divisional round playoff game.

"One of these is not like the others!"

Right. It ONLY took Stafford 13 years and two teams to improve on his 0 - 3 playoff record. You guys just NEVER get it. A superbowl run is an organizational achievement more than it is an individual achievement.

You can be in the wrong place (like Stafford was) and NEVER even win a wildcard playoff game.

Dallas, as an organizational entity has been lackluster to the point of malfeasance over the last thirty years...mostly because Jerry Jones refuses to go all-in...win...rebuild for a few years and go again. He wants the team to be perennial "contenders" even if a championship is fool's gold. It's the brand more than championships these days and it's the biggest reason why Stephen Jones will probably be worse than his father...when it comes to it.

 

[kramskoi]

Out of interest where is Cousins in there - he probably has a higher QBR than some of those quarterbacks when he's a garbage, run of the mill regular season progress stopper.

Cousins has a higher passer rating than Peyton Manning so...again, I do not understand the fascination with people comparing quarterbacks on different teams. They play with different players, different offensive lines, different coaches, in different divisions and conferences against different opposition.

Passer rating doesn't capture performance like QBR:

Peyton Manning...74.06 (Mahomes = 71.91]
Kirk Cousins...56.76

And that my friend, is an appreciable difference in career performance, explaining why Manning is a 2x Superbowl champion and Cousins is not.

 

[Swagger]

Right. It ONLY took Stafford 13 years and two teams to improve on his 0 - 3 playoff record. You guys just NEVER get it. A superbowl run is an organizational achievement more than it is an individual achievement.

You can be in the wrong place (like Stafford was) and NEVER even win a wildcard playoff game.

Dallas, as an organizational entity has been lackluster to the point of malfeasance over the last thirty years...mostly because Jerry Jones refuses to go all-in...win...rebuild for a few years and go again. He wants the team to be perennial "contenders" even if a championship is fool's gold. It's the brand more than championships these days and it's the biggest reason why Stephen Jones will probably be worse than his father...when it comes to it.

Stafford only really had one good team in Detroit in 2014. Good playoff game against the Cowboys. They had a good defense including Suh, Ansah and Slay. Cowboys did well to win that game. They also had a fairly good team early on in his career from memory and Stafford put up MVP/All-Pro type numbers but the defense wasn't good enough. He was a quality quarterback mostly wasted on really bad teams in a division against the Packers and peak Aaron Rodgers. Once he was given a fair shake we have seen what he has been able to produce at the Rams.

 

[starfan1]

Agree.

It's a shame as the Cowboys are in a position to actually make positive changes with all the draft capital but it's just so difficult with Dak Prescott's contract. $231 million guaranteed over 4 years is a hard weight to overcome when the actual production is arguably similar to what a Mayfield or Darnold would produce with these resources but for half the salary.

but it wouldnt be for half the salary because if Mayfield or Darnold played for the star it is they who would have the inflated contract. The contract is not on Dak the contract is on the same doofus who overpaid all the other players that are overpaid going back to before Romo.I hated Romo's second contract but they didn't have much a choice. And to be real its not the contract holding up Jerry from building a quality team. Its his greedy selfish nature. He likes shopping at the dollar store to say hes done something when he could very easily shop for the best FAs. They have wanted to come here.
Henry,Wagner just to name a few.

Jerry pays his draft picks(some that he shouldn't) and then acts like hes done something. I used to think that he was good at drafting but he isnt even good with that. the 23 draft was an utter failure.Im willing to give the 24 draft a bit more time.The 22 draft is just ok to me beyond smith. Paying Fergie Im not sure was the best idea but he isnt the worst TE in the league. Paying Bland and Diggs was dumb or at the very least just based off 1 season they arent exactly great in coverage.

 

[Swagger]

Passer rating doesn't capture performance like QBR:

Peyton Manning...74.06 (Mahomes = 71.91]
Kirk Cousins...56.76

And that my friend, is an appreciable difference in career performance, explaining why Manning is a 2x Superbowl champion and Cousins is not.

Fair enough.

I'm not one for winning % for quarterbacks. For example, Mark Sanchez has a 4-2 playoff record so as he has a higher winning & it makes him better than MVPs Josh Allen (7-6 record), and Aaron Rodgers (11-10 record) yet look at their actual numbers in the play offs? It's just such a basic, child like way to assess a quarterback that lacks any substance. That's not aimed at you but others who seem to regard a quarterback winning % as a key indicator of where a quarterback should be ranked.

With regards to QBR my understanding is that it does not specifically measure the performance of an offensive line or the strength of an opposing defense? As how can it assess the performance of different offensive lines as it would still be a projection which would also have to somehow take into account the strength of the running backs, receivers and coaching scheme within the same set up which would be completely different to what another quarterback has at their disposal. All complete guess work. Moreover, you have the following quarterbacks with the highest QBR from the following seasons:

2015 Carson Palmer
2017 Carson Wentz
2023 Brock Purdy

People are entitled to assess a quarterback how they wish, QBR will not be high on my list in terms of comparing quarterbacks against each other as it's a projection. As I've mentioned before it's like comparing different formula one drivers in completely different cars. It's impossible to accurately judge the performances of quarterbacks in completely different situations. I appreciate it can be a useful way to monitor how a quarterback is playing within their own set up with their own team's resources in terms of where to improve etc but for me completely irrelevant to compare with other quarterbacks for the aforementioned reasons.

 

[kramskoi]

Stafford only really had one good team in Detroit in 2014. Good playoff game against the Cowboys. They had a good defense including Suh, Ansah and Slay. Cowboys did well to win that game. They also had a fairly good team early on in his career from memory and Stafford put up MVP/All-Pro type numbers but the defense wasn't good enough. He was a quality quarterback mostly wasted on really bad teams in a division against the Packers and peak Aaron Rodgers. Once he was given a fair shake we have seen what he has been able to produce at the Rams.

Stafford really only had one season where he was MVP level (2011) with Detroit. He never even won a wildcard game. 12 seasons...0 and 3 playoffs. What makes you think that Dak couldn't get a better deal with a different team?

Dak has had 6 seasons with a QBR over 70. Stafford had ONE (2019) in his 12 seasons with Detroit (mostly because he threw too many interceptions). NONE in his seasons with the Rams so far.

That 2021 Rams team was stacked on offense. Odell Beckham, Cooper Kuup (1950 yds by himself), Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, Desean Jackson. The defense was only 15th in ppg (21.9 ppg) that year.

 

[khiladi]

Imagine comparing the chaos in Detroit with Stafford and their horrible OL with what Dak has had his whole career here, including playing in the NFC East. Stafford basically went to a team that Dak has been on his whole career and won a SB within seconds. Dak had 3 all-pro lineman, who played multiple years together, the first half of his career with Zeke commanding the most stacked boxes by far of any RB in the league.

 

[Swagger]

Stafford really only had one season where he was MVP level (2011) with Detroit. He never even won a wildcard game. 12 seasons...0 and 3 playoffs. What makes you think that Dak couldn't get a better deal with a different team?

Dak has had 6 seasons with a QBR over 70. Stafford had ONE (2019) in his 12 seasons with Detroit (mostly because he threw too many interceptions). NONE in his seasons with the Rams so far.

That 2021 Rams team was stacked on offense. Odell Beckham, Cooper Kuup (1950 yds by himself), Robert Woods, Tyler Higbee, Van Jefferson, Desean Jackson. The defense was only 15th in ppg (21.9 ppg) that year.

Yes 2011 sounds about right for the Stafford MVP calibre season.

I'm not surprised that Stafford didn't have a higher QBR and it's why to me it's an irrelevant statistic compared with other quarterbacks because the likelihood is that he was regularly chasing games with an indifferent offense and a horrible o-line coupled with a bad defense resulting in many interceptions as what would happen with pretty much every quarterback in the same situation. Conversely he has had more rounded teams at the Rams and largely played lights out.

I'm sure there would be a desperate mug team out there who would give Dak an opportunity but none of the real contenders would touch him.

The Broncos, Texans, Washington, Bears and Patriots are riding young quarterbacks on rookie deals.

The Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Packers, Lions and 49ers have all paid their quarterbacks.

Seattle and the Bucs have paid vets a team friendly salary.

This leaves the following teams:

Dolphins
Steelers
Colts
Panthers
Falcons
Rams

The way he is playing this season Stafford has another year or two left in him if he wants to keep playing. If he's available I can see the Rams making a move for Burrow. I would be surprised if they go for Dak as he would be expensive and they seem a well run organisation in terms of assessing a player's worth and I don't think they would value Dak as highly as the Cowboys.

Dolphins, Colts, Panthers and the Falcons are all definite potentials for Dak Prescott and imo the best he could get on the market. Arguably all of which have less chance of making the Superbowl than the Cowboys except perhaps the Falcons and potentially the Panthers given the state of the division and the NFC is typically weaker than the AFC.

Seattle would also be a potential if they moved on from Darnold but again, for the price they would have to pay Dak...why would they want to double the quarterback salary when the production may not be too much more?

I think Dak and his fans would be surprised at the lack of interest in him on the open market from good teams unless he was willing to take a fair hair cut on his salary. Whereas I think teams like the Rams would be willing to pay someone like Burrow around $55 million a year.

 

[Swagger]

Imagine comparing the chaos in Detroit with Stafford and their horrible OL with what Dak has had his whole career here, including playing in the NFC East. Stafford basically went to a team that Dak has been on his whole career and won a SB within seconds. Dak had 3 all-pro lineman, who played multiple years together, the first half of his career with Zeke commanding the most stacked boxes by far of any RB in the league.

So true!

 

[Swagger]

Imagine comparing the chaos in Detroit with Stafford and their horrible OL with what Dak has had his whole career here, including playing in the NFC East. Stafford basically went to a team that Dak has been on his whole career and won a SB within seconds. Dak had 3 all-pro lineman, who played multiple years together, the first half of his career with Zeke commanding the most stacked boxes by far of any RB in the league.

I wrote down in a previous post in this thread what Dak has had at his disposal on offense and it genuinely surprised me! I forgot about how much talent he has been surrounded with especially on offense over the entirety of his career. He has had some good defenses as well, particularly at taking away the ball and giving him good starting positions for a few seasons. People do not want to here it but he has underachieved with the rosters he has had during his career.

 

[khiladi]

Yes 2011 sounds about right for the Stafford MVP calibre season.

I'm not surprised that Stafford didn't have a higher QBR and it's why to me it's an irrelevant statistic compared with other quarterbacks because the likelihood is that he was regularly chasing games with an indifferent offense and a horrible o-line coupled with a bad defense resulting in many interceptions as what would happen with pretty much every quarterback in the same situation. Conversely he has had more rounded teams at the Rams and largely played lights out.

I'm sure there would be a desperate mug team out there who would give Dak an opportunity but none of the real contenders would touch him.

The Broncos, Texans, Washington, Bears and Patriots are riding young quarterbacks on rookie deals.

The Jaguars, Chargers, Bengals, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Packers, Lions and 49ers have all paid their quarterbacks.

Seattle and the Bucs have paid vets a team friendly salary.

This leaves the following teams:

Dolphins
Steelers
Colts
Panthers
Falcons
Rams

The way he is playing this season Stafford has another year or two left in him if he wants to keep playing. If he's available I can see the Rams making a move for Burrow. I would be surprised if they go for Dak as he would be expensive and they seem a well run organisation in terms of assessing a player's worth and I don't think they would value Dak as highly as the Cowboys.

Dolphins, Colts, Panthers and the Falcons are all definite potentials for Dak Prescott and imo the best he could get on the market. Arguably all of which have less chance of making the Superbowl than the Cowboys except perhaps the Falcons and potentially the Panthers given the state of the division and the NFC is typically weaker than the AFC.

Seattle would also be a potential if they moved on from Darnold but again, for the price they would have to pay Dak...why would they want to double the quarterback salary when the production may not be too much more?

I think Dak and his fans would be surprised at the lack of interest in him on the open market from good teams unless he was willing to take a fair hair cut on his salary. Whereas I think teams like the Rams would be willing to pay someone like Burrow around $55 million a year.

QBR has constantly been changing in terms of calculation, especially during Stafford's era onward. For example, it started taking into account YAC after around 2013. I'm not sure the exact date.

So it's competely pointless to even compare eras with these stats. In fact, it's completely pointless to compare them by years within the same era, unless one knows what the changes were.

Most stats are now being used for gambling, not actually reflecting a QBS performance, so they will find more and more ways to be "creative".

Statisticians know that you need to normalize data. Stats don't lie, but how one interprets them can be a lie or simply an example of people not knowing what they are talking about.