Is this the year to use future picks to move up?

[blindzebra]

We are on the cusp, we have a young and cheap franchise QB, and we have a butt-load of free agents that could give us some comp picks.

Would you be willing to give up next year's first, second, or third to go get a player?

This year is deep where we need players the most DL and DB so normally you'd let the draft come to you but, if we think we are a game changing player away along with adding some quality depth to fix the defense do you keep the picks this year to build that depth and use next year's pick/s to get that game changer?

Discuss...

 

[Toruk_Makto]

No.

Trading up is almost always a bad idea even if you get good value. The draft is so uncertain that it's better to take multiple swings almost every time.

 

[kiheikiwi]

Nope, not gonna be able to do it. We need all our picks. ( see Claiborne)...

 

[Sydla]

There are success stories in trading up (Julio Jones) and disasters (RG3).

I say, just stay put. I might move a few spots, like into the early or mid-20s for a guy, but I'd avoid any big moves to jump way up the board.

 

[blindzebra]

I am saying a top 5 talent on our board falls to 15 so we use next years 1st to move up and still have our 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, and 2 7ths.

 

[Killerinstinct]

No. I would be more interested in trading back. This is a deep draft.

 

[Hailmary]

Better idea might be to trade down to the top of the second and try to pick up an additional 3rd and a 5th.

 

[blindzebra]

Pick 28 worth 660 points plus next year's first about 500 points for pick 15 1050 points

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Absolutely not.


Trading up for draft picks is almost always a bad move unless you can get that franchise QB. And the problem with the franchise QB’s is that teams these days start them right away even if they are not ready (thank you Washington and Philadelphia).


Furthermore, QB is actually one of the least injury prone positions in the league right now, so it makes sense to trade-up for a QB. WR or DE? Completely different story.


The 3 years prior to getting Julio Jones, the Falcons had a record of 33-17.


The first 5 years of Jones’ career (2011 to 2015), the Falcons’ record?


41-41.


The reason behind the move for Atlanta was they were on the cusp of winning a Super Bowl and thought that Jones would be the missing piece. The Fool’s Gold of taking somebody like Jones in a big trade like this is that he worked out as a player as he’s one of the league’s best. But by the same token, the move looks like it destroyed the Falcons defense.


The Falcons went from allowing 20.3 points per game in Julio’s first 2 seasons. From 2012-2016, the after effects of the big trade-up could be felt and the Falcons allowed 25.2 points per game during those seasons (a 24% increase in points allowed).


In reality, if you’re trading up that much to get somebody that’s not a QB…your coaching staff isn’t doing their jobs very well. You may not be able to find another Julio Jones, but you can find a Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, etc. later on in the draft. With QB’s it is different because there are so few good ones out there and the league is so reliant on the passing game. And with QB’s having dramatically lower injury rates, it’s worth the risk if you have the right player.


These big trades to push a team to get that Super Bowl rarely work out. Looking at the last few Super Bowl winners (Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, Giants, Packers, Steelers, etc.), outside of a trade to acquire a QB, they really didn’t do much in the way of trades. And as we found out with Dez, Manziel, Jonathan Cooper and others…patience is the best policy in the draft because you may end up with the chance to get the player you wanted anyway.


Stay put, acquire talent and get your coaching staff to do their job.




YR

 

[AzorAhai]

I'm never opposed to moving up or down depending on what the circumstance is. Is the last 1st Rd grade on the board at 24 and it's a position of need? Go get him. Is the last 1st Rd grade on the board at 28, but it's not a position of need? Trade down if the offer is good enough. I'm not really interested in any large jumps in the 1st or 2nd unless it's for a QB. Otherwise the player probably has to be at least a pro bowl level player or it was a bad trade. And unless you are jumping really high, the blue chip players are almost assuredly gone by 15 anyways.

 

[rkell87]

No

 

[Sydla]

Absolutely not.


Trading up for draft picks is almost always a bad move unless you can get that franchise QB. And the problem with the franchise QB’s is that teams these days start them right away even if they are not ready (thank you Washington and Philadelphia).


Furthermore, QB is actually one of the least injury prone positions in the league right now, so it makes sense to trade-up for a QB. WR or DE? Completely different story.


The 3 years prior to getting Julio Jones, the Falcons had a record of 33-17.


The first 5 years of Jones’ career (2011 to 2015), the Falcons’ record?


41-41.


The reason behind the move for Atlanta was they were on the cusp of winning a Super Bowl and thought that Jones would be the missing piece. The Fool’s Gold of taking somebody like Jones in a big trade like this is that he worked out as a player as he’s one of the league’s best. But by the same token, the move looks like it destroyed the Falcons defense.


The Falcons went from allowing 20.3 points per game in Julio’s first 2 seasons. From 2012-2016, the after effects of the big trade-up could be felt and the Falcons allowed 25.2 points per game during those seasons (a 24% increase in points allowed).


In reality, if you’re trading up that much to get somebody that’s not a QB…your coaching staff isn’t doing their jobs very well. You may not be able to find another Julio Jones, but you can find a Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, etc. later on in the draft. With QB’s it is different because there are so few good ones out there and the league is so reliant on the passing game. And with QB’s having dramatically lower injury rates, it’s worth the risk if you have the right player.


These big trades to push a team to get that Super Bowl rarely work out. Looking at the last few Super Bowl winners (Patriots, Broncos, Seahawks, Giants, Packers, Steelers, etc.), outside of a trade to acquire a QB, they really didn’t do much in the way of trades. And as we found out with Dez, Manziel, Jonathan Cooper and others…patience is the best policy in the draft because you may end up with the chance to get the player you wanted anyway.


Stay put, acquire talent and get your coaching staff to do their job.




YR

Your Falcon analysis is somewhat flawed. After they took Jones in 2011, they made the playoffs. Then in 2012, they made the NFC Title game. 2013, the team tanked because they were destroyed by injuries to key players. Even if they had their picks and hit them all, they still would have struggled in 2013. 2014 was just a bad season. Then 2015 was a coaching change and in 2016 they made the SB.

So to say the Falcons failed in trading up for Jones is somewhat flawed when in the 6 seasons Jones has been in the league, they've made two NFC title games and one SB. Much better than we have done over the same 6 year period keeping most of our picks.

 

[fishspill]

I would for a Joey Bosa type talent but there's not an obvious one in this draft.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

Your Falcon analysis is somewhat flawed. After they took Jones in 2011, they made the playoffs. Then in 2012, they made the NFC Title game. 2013, the team tanked because they were destroyed by injuries to key players. Even if they had their picks and hit them all, they still would have struggled in 2013. 2014 was just a bad season. Then 2015 was a coaching change and in 2016 they made the SB.

So to say the Falcons failed in trading up for Jones is somewhat flawed when in the 6 seasons Jones has been in the league, they've made two NFC title games and one SB. Much better than we have done over the same 6 year period keeping most of our picks.

No, you have missed out on some key points.

They went 33-17 the 3 years prior to Jones being drafted. Chances are they would have STILL been a contender in 2011 and 2012 even if they didn't have Jones.

As I said, the Falcons made the move because they thought Jones was the final missing piece to Super Bowl glory. But, it wasn't. If they had kept their picks, there's a reasonable argument to be made that those players could have filled those holes that were left behind by key players that were injured or they could have have strengthened parts of the team that would overcome the weaknesses for their injuries.

And who was one of the key injuries in the 2013 team?

Julio Jones.

The defense for the Falcons suffered greatly and has every year since 2013.

The Falcons are fortunate that Jones worked out so well. Most players don't quite live up to those expectations and the team never gets that missing piece and is hurt for years afterwards for giving up all of those picks.




YR

 

[xwalker]

We are on the cusp, we have a young and cheap franchise QB, and we have a butt-load of free agents that could give us some comp picks.

Would you be willing to give up next year's first, second, or third to go get a player?

This year is deep where we need players the most DL and DB so normally you'd let the draft come to you but, if we think we are a game changing player away along with adding some quality depth to fix the defense do you keep the picks this year to build that depth and use next year's pick/s to get that game changer?

Discuss...

No, the probability of success is lower in the long run for teams that trade up.

When a team stays put they are making an educated guess on which player to take.

When they trade up they are making 2 educated guesses. One on which player to take and one on which players will be taken by the teams between where they trade up and their original pick.

It's like playing poker. A careless bet might win a hand, but over time careless betting loses.

The Patriots rarely ever trade up but often trade down. I'm sure they've calculated the odds.

If the Cowboys could trade Romo and #28 for a higher pick then that would be a better option.

 

[visionary]

Horrible idea
This is the year to pick up 1-2 prime FAs though and continue to build through the draft

 

[Sydla]

No, you have missed out on some key points.

They went 33-17 the 3 years prior to Jones being drafted. Chances are they would have STILL been a contender in 2011 and 2012 even if they didn't have Jones.

As I said, the Falcons made the move because they thought Jones was the final missing piece to Super Bowl glory. But, it wasn't. If they had kept their picks, there's a reasonable argument to be made that those players could have filled those holes that were left behind by key players that were injured or they could have have strengthened parts of the team that would overcome the weaknesses for their injuries.

And who was one of the key injuries in the 2013 team?

Julio Jones.

The defense for the Falcons suffered greatly and has every year since 2013.

The Falcons are fortunate that Jones worked out so well. Most players don't quite live up to those expectations and the team never gets that missing piece and is hurt for years afterwards for giving up all of those picks.




YR

They went to two NFC Title games and one SB in the 6 years after drafting Jones.

And LOL at your last paragraph. You basically just admitted what I said. Jones did work out for them and the team has had a pretty successful 6 year run after drafting him.

But FWIW, I am not advocating moving up substantially for the Cowboys. Simply pointing out that it's a myth that making a substantial move up never works for a team.

 

[reddyuta]

I really like the depth of this draft,we can get first year starters in rd2 and rd 3,i want to trade out if we miss out on DEs in the first.

 

[Leadbelly]

Only for a QB and we have two.

If we're talking about a late 4th to hop over a team we know is going to take a player high on our board, I have no issue with that. Dak is a rare RD4 guy to find success. Most are out of the NFL after 3 years. But day 2 pick, no. In my mind, that's giving up two starters for one.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

They went to two NFC Title games and one SB in the 6 years after drafting Jones.

And LOL at your last paragraph. You basically just admitted what I said. Jones did work out for them and the team has had a pretty successful 6 year run after drafting him.

But FWIW, I am not advocating moving up substantially for the Cowboys. Simply pointing out that it's a myth that making a substantial move up never works for a team.

Jones worked out as a player, but the trade didn't work out.

Was he the final missing piece for the team within 3 years of being drafted?

No.

They didn't even sniff the Super Bowl until his 6th season in the league.

They made a gamble thinking he was the final missing piece of a team that was already very good and would have likely been a contender w/o Jones.

In the end, the defense greatly suffered for it and Jones was one of the key players that got injured in 2013 when you said they were doomed to have a bad season. Because if you put your eggs into 1 basket...you can't afford for that basket to break.

6 years afterward when the team had to fire a coach that had a great record for 5 years and then they replaced him with another defensive mind and their Achilles' heel is still the defense.

Imagine if Julio was just a better than average WR or if he was a bust? It would have been a massive failure for the Falcons. Or if his foot injury in 2013 had greatly sapped his athleticism. The risk of putting your eggs into 1 basket for the shot to win 1 Super Bowl is just foolish thinking.

So go LOL yourself because clearly you don't understand the economics of football.




YR