It Does Matter Who You Play

[percyhoward]

The words of Troy Aikman. And he wasn't kidding.

These teams played the nine easiest schedules this year:
1. Seattle*
2T. Carolina*
2T. Tampa Bay*
4T. Chicago*
4T. Indianapolis*
4T. Miami
7. Jacksonville*
8. Cincinnati*
9T. Minnesota
9T. St. Louis
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team


These teams played the nine most difficult schedules:
1. San Diego
2. Oakland
2T. San Francisco
2T. Washington*
5. Houston
6T. Green Bay
6T. Philadelphia
8. NY Jets
9T. Baltimore
9T.Dallas
9T.New Orleans
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team

The first list looks a lot like the seedings for the playoffs, while the second list looks like the top 10 in the draft.

With very few notable exceptions, if you want to know how well a certain team performed, you can just look at that team's schedule.

 

[Clove]

That's why if we could have won atleast 2 or 3 more games, we would've been a strong favorite to take it all.

When you play touigh teams and win, you're pretty good.

 

[Hostile]

The words of Troy Aikman. And he wasn't kidding.

These teams played the nine easiest schedules this year:
1. Seattle*
2T. Carolina*
2T. Tampa Bay*
4T. Chicago*
4T. Indianapolis*
4T. Miami
7. Jacksonville*
8. Cincinnati*
9T. Minnesota
9T. St. Louis
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team


These teams played the nine most difficult schedules:
1. San Diego
2. Oakland
2T. San Francisco
2T. Washington*
5. Houston
6T. Green Bay
6T. Philadelphia
8. NY Jets
9T. Baltimore
9T.Dallas
9T.New Orleans
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team

The first list looks a lot like the seedings for the playoffs, while the second list looks like the top 10 in the draft.

With very few notable exceptions, if you want to know how well a certain team performed, you can just look at that team's schedule.

One thing to remember PH, The teams that win the most drive the % down on the teams they beat. The teams who lose to those teams drive their % up.

In other words, look at Houston and Indy. In opposite lists but played virtually the same teams. Only 2 teams different the entire season. But Houston has a winning % of .125 and Indy played them twice. Indy on the other hand has a winning % of .875 and Houston played them twice.

That is a difference of 24 games.

 

[jimmy40]

The words of Troy Aikman. And he wasn't kidding.

These teams played the nine easiest schedules this year:
1. Seattle*
2T. Carolina*
2T. Tampa Bay*
4T. Chicago*
4T. Indianapolis*
4T. Miami
7. Jacksonville*
8. Cincinnati*
9T. Minnesota
9T. St. Louis
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team


These teams played the nine most difficult schedules:
1. San Diego
2. Oakland
2T. San Francisco
2T. Washington*
5. Houston
6T. Green Bay
6T. Philadelphia
8. NY Jets
9T. Baltimore
9T.Dallas
9T.New Orleans
Teams in bold all had winning records.
* = playoff team

The first list looks a lot like the seedings for the playoffs, while the second list looks like the top 10 in the draft.

With very few notable exceptions, if you want to know how well a certain team performed, you can just look at that team's schedule.

Put the winning percentages of the teams played, not just the rankings and you'll see there is barely any difference between these lists, as always.

 

[kingwhicker]

That's why Washington is going to go very deep in the playoffs too.

 

[Kilyin]

That's why Washington is going to go very deep in the playoffs too.

If you consider a loss in the first wildcard game "deep in the playoffs", they just might.

 

[percyhoward]

One thing to remember PH, The teams that win the most drive the % down on the teams they beat. The teams who lose to those teams drive their % up.

In other words, look at Houston and Indy. In opposite lists but played virtually the same teams. Only 2 teams different the entire season. But Houston has a winning % of .125 and Indy played them twice. Indy on the other hand has a winning % of .875 and Houston played them twice.

That is a difference of 24 games.

If you're saying that Indy's schedule was made much easier by getting to play the Texans twice, then you're right. But that 24 game difference comes from the fact that the Colts played the Texans instead of say, Denver. Not just from playing the Texans. IOW, it reflects how much easier the schedule was.

Denver and Seattle won an equal number of games, but Seattle's opponents won 18 fewer games than Denver's did. Seattle was in a much easier division, so it had a much easier schedule.

 

[DragonCowboy]

thats why the Commanders really scare me. I hope they come back down to earth next week and lose in a blowout to the Bucs.

 

[Kilyin]

Why aren't the Giants on the easiest schedule list? They got an extra home game.

 

[DragonCowboy]

no, the Giants are number 1 on the NFL's dream team list. New York City, big time running back, a Manning, great wide receiver, dominating D Line. No wonder the Giants got an extra home game...

 

[kingwhicker]

Wish in one hand and do something else in the other and see which fills up faster for those of you thinking the Commanders lose to the Bucs.

 

[percyhoward]

Put the winning percentages of the teams played, not just the rankings and you'll see there is barely any difference between these lists, as always.

Explain.

When you figure %'s, San Diego's opponents were .559, and Seattle's were .430. That's a difference of .129.

That means SD played the equivalent of a 9-7 team every week, and Seattle played a 7-9 team every week!

To look at it another way, SD and Seattle played nothing but .500 teams, except for 8 games. All SD's remaining opponents were 10-6, and all Seattle's we 6-10...

You call that "barely any difference"?

 

[percyhoward]

Why aren't the Giants on the easiest schedule list? They got an extra home game.

The Giants deserve a list all to themselves.

 

[Asklesko]

I don't know about this. Just because Seattle kicked arse on a weak schedule doesn't mean they're not as good as advertised.

 

[Hostile]

If you're saying that Indy's schedule was made much easier by getting to play the Texans twice, then you're right. But that 24 game difference comes from the fact that the Colts played the Texans instead of say, Denver. Not just from playing the Texans. IOW, it reflects how much easier the schedule was.

Denver and Seattle won an equal number of games, but Seattle's opponents won 18 fewer games than Denver's did. Seattle was in a much easier division, so it had a much easier schedule.

Let me try again. Where their schedules differ I will highlight in red.

Colts 2005 sched, wins

Ravens, 6
Jaguars, 12
Browns, 6
Titans, 4
49ers, 4
Rams, 6
Texans, 2
Patriots, 10
Texans, 2
Bengals, 11
Steelers, 11
Titans, 4
Jaguars, 12
Chargers, 9
Seahawks, 13
Cardinals, 5

Texans 2005 sched, wins

Bills, 5
Steelers, 11
Bengals, 11
Titans, 4
Seahawks, 13
Colts, 14
Browns, 6
Jaguars, 12
Colts, 14
Chiefs, 10
Rams, 6
Ravens, 6
Titans, 4
Cardinals, 5
Jaguars, 12
49ers, 4

For 12 of the 16 games these 2 teams opponents wins are exactly the same at 94 wins in 192 games played. With me so far? That is .490 opponent's winning %.

Colts uncommon opponents add 23 wins to 94 for 117 wins in 256 games. That drops them from .490 to .457

Texans uncommon opponents add 43 wins to 94 for 137 wins in 256 games.
That raises them from .490 to .535

I find that highly significant. 4 games equals a gap of 78 points in the %.

 

[percyhoward]

If SOS is misleading, and teams that win the least "drive up the percentages" of the teams that beat them, then why are 3 winning teams (SD, Was, Dal) on the "tough" list? These teams added more losses to their opponents' records than wins.

Every other team on the list is 6-10 or worse, and predictably so.

In the case of those 3 teams, it must say something about their ability to overcome adversity (to varying extents).

If SOS doesn't mean anything, then why so many playoff teams on the easy list? And why isn't Denver, Washington, or New England on that list, considering all the teams they beat that should have driven down their opponents' percentage?

It's because most of their opponents' games were against other teams. At least 14 of 16.

It's not a stretch to conclude that the Chargers were put into a hoplesss position with their schedule, and teams like Washington and Dallas did very well to even have a shot.

Washington, whether we like it or not, did very, very well.

 

[Hostile]

If SOS is misleading, and teams that win the least "drive up the percentages" of the teams that beat them, then why are 3 winning teams (SD, Was, Dal) on the "tough" list? These teams added more losses to their opponents' records than wins.

Every other team on the list is 6-10 or worse, and predictably so.

In the case of those 3 teams, it must say something about their ability to overcome adversity (to varying extents).

If SOS doesn't mean anything, then why so many playoff teams on the easy list? And why isn't Denver, Washington, or New England on that list, considering all the teams they beat that should have driven down their opponents' percentage?

It's because most of their opponents' games were against other teams. At least 14 of 16.

It's not a stretch to conclude that the Chargers were put into a hoplesss position with their schedule, and teams like Washington and Dallas did very well to even have a shot.

Washington, whether we like it or not, did very, very well.

I did not say it doesn't mean anything. I said a bad team facing a good team twice in 1 season can really affect the results.

Did my evidence lie? If so, how?

 

[percyhoward]

4 games equals a gap of 78 points in the %.

Hos, I appreciate the effort, but I'm not getting why the simple facts that the Colts got to play the Texans twice, and that the Texans had to play the Colts twice don't, in and of themselves, make the Texans' schedule harder and the Colts' easier.

 

[percyhoward]

A bad team facing a good team twice in 1 season can really affect the results.

Other than usually meaning two losses for the bad team, what's the effect?

 

[Hostile]

Other than usually meaning two losses for the bad team, what's the effect?

12 of the 16 games were common opponents. Do you agree?

So there is no difference there at all. .490 is the mean or average at which they faced equal teams.

Colts add the Patriots and Chargers for 19 more wins. (Takes the strength of schedule to .504)

Texans add the Bills and Chiefs for 15 more wins. (Takes the strength of scheduel to .487)

See where the Colts OW % or strength of schedule would actually be higher than the Texans if you only added those 2 games for each?

Now add the Colts 28 wins to the Texans and the Texans 4 wins to the Colts.

Huge difference of 24 wins.

I hope that makes sense.