Jason Garrett quickly becoming one of the longest term head coaches

[KJJ]

"at some point" "pull away"

Of course. But Garrett did it all too often, too many times, too early. And he certainly wasnt mentally committed to it with the offense. And there were plenty of games where it was working fine or great and he went away from it. Lets not forget his now infamous 8 year mantra of "take what the defense gives you". Allowing the defense to all but dictate what they want you to do.

But low and behold, we didnt see that mantra last year did we? Not with Linehan. We were going to pound the ball no matter what, when we wanted. We were committed, Even when people were stopping it. 90's Cowboys were the same way. First half they would be getting shut down, but they would come out at the half pounding the ball and eventually the defense would cave. Now granted the line wasnt always as good as last year, but you need to committ and cant abandon every week in the first quarter.

At times Garrett did bail on the run too early but it wasn't working very well and the Cowboys defense was being shredded through the air. The reason they committed to the run last season is because it worked to perfection. Murray entered the season highly motivated in a contract year and stayed healthy plus the addition of Martin solidified the OL.

 

[Eskimo]

You're pointing out more of the roster turnover that has occurred under JG's tenure. Outside of the OL, I don't see the drafted talent that is associated with this. Dez, definitely. Maybe Craw, Law, but who else? Lee isn't an impact bc of his frailty. Carter was week to week in relevance. Beasley is just another slot wr on any other team but we love them locks around here (I like the player too). Murray had one breakout year which showed he should have been used more throughout his tenure if anything. Claiborne has busted as a 1st rounder under JG. I was pointing out that the OL wasn't developed so much as chosen with premium draft picks that showed their talent in their rookie years, etc. Got lucky with Leary but the other OL were premium picks...yes premium picks bust, as seen with Claiborne.

He took 4 years and the talent I described to win a playoff game. He cost us a chance at the playoffs directly through his "game time" decision making and poor offensive scheme (pass happy, not shortening routes with bad OL, etc.). Dez would be just fine in NE/SEA/PIT, etc. The presence of a firm coach, some team leadership (lacking on O) and matured culture is all he needed. So JG is now the GM and gets credit for a team that looks different (talent wise) than a team from 2010? Ok, and? I would hope the team looks different than 4 seasons ago, but the main variable remains the same; the presence of a franchise QB. You are never rebuilding in the NFL with a franchise QB.

The key point I'm making is that you can't separate the issue of a "talented roster" from the coach when the talent wasn't inherited. The talent was developed under his supervision and his assistant coaches under the schemes developed by the coordinators he picked. Dallas has hit on a tremendous amount of picks and UDFA since Garrett arrived. This allowed for us to become much younger, avoid losing seasons and scratch our way out of Cap Hell.

Right now as of his 5th season the only guy he picked in the first 3 rounds since the 2009 draft who busted has been Mo Claiborne. I'll list all the guys picked in that timeframe:

Dez
Lee
Tyron Smith
Bruce Carter
Murray
Mo
Tyrone Crawford
Travis Frederick
Gavin Escobar
Terence Williams
JJ Wilcox
Zach Martin
Demarcus Lawrence

To me that is an amazing hit rate in the draft when compared historically to other periods you assess. Out of 13 draft picks 12 look like they have gone on to become quality starters in the league and 5 have made the Pro Bowl already. Compare it to Jimmy Johnson's tenure from 1989-1993 and you would be surprised by how much better this 5-year period has been at hit rate for the premium picks. Jimmy had the advantage of lots of extra picks from the Herschel Walker trade and got the #1 pick in the draft in back-to-back years. Garrett had no such advantage during his rebuild. Jimmy also didn't have to worry about the salary cap and teams raiding his roster in FA. The job done in re-tooling this roster has been amazing. We did out without luck (i.e. no drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round), without anything better than one top 10 pick (I don't count trading up as getting a top 10 pick) and without some windfall from trading a prized veteran. We did it without cap space to spare.

Adding to the success rate from the draft, we have also found success in UDFA:

Leary
Beasley
Church
Bailey
Dunbar

We have also had a few reclamation projects:

Mincey
McClain
Selvie
Durant

This team is eons better than the team he inherited. It has better players who work harder, better coaches and an owner who is now under control and seems to better understand what his role is in football operations compared to before. None of this happens if Garrett isn't so good behind the scenes with Jerry. He let's Jerry talk and take credit for things to assuage his ego while him, his coaches the McClay and the scouts go about building the team. Not many could do this and I actually think he may be the only man on the planet who could do it. Just be thankful that Jerry found the guy who could work with him and had the guts to hire him as OC despite how green he was in the coaching profession.

 

[BigStar]

The key point I'm making is that you can't separate the issue of a "talented roster" from the coach when the talent wasn't inherited. The talent was developed under his supervision and his assistant coaches under the schemes developed by the coordinators he picked. Dallas has hit on a tremendous amount of picks and UDFA since Garrett arrived. This allowed for us to become much younger, avoid losing seasons and scratch our way out of Cap Hell.

Right now as of his 5th season the only guy he picked in the first 3 rounds since the 2009 draft who busted has been Mo Claiborne. I'll list all the guys picked in that timeframe:

Dez
Lee
Tyron Smith
Bruce Carter
Murray
Mo
Tyrone Crawford
Travis Frederick
Gavin Escobar
Terence Williams
JJ Wilcox
Zach Martin
Demarcus Lawrence

To me that is an amazing hit rate in the draft when compared historically to other periods you assess. Out of 13 draft picks 12 look like they have gone on to become quality starters in the league and 5 have made the Pro Bowl already. Compare it to Jimmy Johnson's tenure from 1989-1993 and you would be surprised by how much better this 5-year period has been at hit rate for the premium picks. Jimmy had the advantage of lots of extra picks from the Herschel Walker trade and got the #1 pick in the draft in back-to-back years. Garrett had no such advantage during his rebuild. Jimmy also didn't have to worry about the salary cap and teams raiding his roster in FA. The job done in re-tooling this roster has been amazing. We did out without luck (i.e. no drafting Tom Brady in the 6th round), without anything better than one top 10 pick (I don't count trading up as getting a top 10 pick) and without some windfall from trading a prized veteran. We did it without cap space to spare.

Adding to the success rate from the draft, we have also found success in UDFA:

Leary
Beasley
Church
Bailey
Dunbar

We have also had a few reclamation projects:

Mincey
McClain
Selvie
Durant

This team is eons better than the team he inherited. It has better players who work harder, better coaches and an owner who is now under control and seems to better understand what his role is in football operations compared to before. None of this happens if Garrett isn't so good behind the scenes with Jerry. He let's Jerry talk and take credit for things to assuage his ego while him, his coaches the McClay and the scouts go about building the team. Not many could do this and I actually think he may be the only man on the planet who could do it. Just be thankful that Jerry found the guy who could work with him and had the guts to hire him as OC despite how green he was in the coaching profession.

I get where you are coming from and there is more youthful talent on this team without a doubt. My JG is gm comment was more so that he seems to get credit for the good while JJ gets credit for the bad. In 2010, Gurode was cut and could be argued that the move destabilized what little continuity and veteran talent we had on the OL; negating any real chance to compete. That wasn't Romo friendly and without replacements in mind, this move simply left the team to "rebuild" the OL over 4 years. There was no plan there, except draft one in the first round and then sit tight until the next off season. That's a painfully slow rebuild that stalled the team/Romo. I may argue about adding Escobar on the list just because of his lack of involvement in the offense (lends to scheme) and like Wilcox enough to let him learn on the go. I like the UDFAs in Bailey and Leary (Beasley's production is easily replaceable) and Church is an ideal 3rd S bc of his lack of speed.

My main argument is that JG may have not had the young talent he currently has, but he had Romo. He should have catered the scheme to Romo; running more/shorter routes to lessen the pressure on the bad OL. Yes, Ware, Witten, Murray, TO, etc. but mainly he already was given the most pivotal ingredient in forming a playoff team = Romo. It still took 4 years to win a playoff game even with a franchise QB. The D was only terrible in 13, not his whole tenure (Idgit ). His learning on the go caused us to miss out on Romo in his prime. Romo is still great, but would be fooling ourselves if we also don't admit the passing game is more conservative as a result of the diminished deep ball opportunity. Maybe we could move RG into the FO and get a coach that brings something on gamedays. The positives I hear associated with RG seem to be more catered to a GM than a HC.

 

[Eskimo]

I get where you are coming from and there is more youthful talent on this team without a doubt. My JG is gm comment was more so that he seems to get credit for the good while JJ gets credit for the bad. In 2010, Gurode was cut and could be argued that the move destabilized what little continuity and veteran talent we had on the OL; negating any real chance to compete. That wasn't Romo friendly and without replacements in mind, this move simply left the team to "rebuild" the OL over 4 years. There was no plan there, except draft one in the first round and then sit tight until the next off season. That's a painfully slow rebuild that stalled the team/Romo. I may argue about adding Escobar on the list just because of his lack of involvement in the offense (lends to scheme) and like Wilcox enough to let him learn on the go. I like the UDFAs in Bailey and Leary (Beasley's production is easily replaceable) and Church is an ideal 3rd S bc of his lack of speed.

My main argument is that JG may have not had the young talent he currently has, but he had Romo. He should have catered the scheme to Romo; running more/shorter routes to lessen the pressure on the bad OL. Yes, Ware, Witten, Murray, TO, etc. but mainly he already was given the most pivotal ingredient in forming a playoff team = Romo. It still took 4 years to win a playoff game even with a franchise QB. The D was only terrible in 13, not his whole tenure (Idgit ). His learning on the go caused us to miss out on Romo in his prime. Romo is still great, but would be fooling ourselves if we also don't admit the passing game is more conservative as a result of the diminished deep ball opportunity. Maybe we could move RG into the FO and get a coach that brings something on gamedays. The positives I hear associated with RG seem to be more catered to a GM than a HC.

Yes, he had a very good QB. However, the strength of this QB is not quickly reading defenses and delivering short passes accurately. What he does have is elite pocket awareness and elusiveness, tremendous ability to throw on the move and deadly accuracy/touch on intermediate passes.

As far as why we didn't win more with Romo in his prime, the main problem was really how bad the defense was. Go look at some of the advanced analytic models of defensive efficiency. In the last 5 years I think we've been a bottom 5 defense four times. Unfortunately we had some highly paid defensive vets who suddenly lost it (Ware, Spencer, Rat, Lee due to injury) made a bad draft choice (Mo) and invested poorly in FA (Carr). At the same time we were spending our high picks to re-build a comically bad OL in the hopes of keeping Romo healthy.

Well we got the OL rebuilt, we now have the defense ready to compete and we have the franchise QB but the problem is health. I know some might blame the OL for Romo's health but I think he's had a problem going all the way back to 2008 from when the OL was still pretty good, especially in pass protection. I just think it has gotten slowly worse over the years. Unfortunately, Jerry at one point developed the notion that you could build an OL out of UDFA and mid-round picks and then later decided the key was to sign guys in their late 20s since OL can play well into their mid-30s. Of course, when the deck of cards fell apart in 2010 it would take awhile to rebuild the team and the OL.

Anyhow, I don't mean to take this as Garrett as the messiah. I do believe he is a great overall HC who has attracted good FO, coaches and gets his players to work hard and play together as a team. On top of that he seems to be uniquely equipped to work with Jerry and Jerry is somehow wired to trust Garrett in a way he hasn't trusted other coaches. I'm not eager to rock this boat at all.

 

[LittleBoyBlue]

Bill Belichick - 2000 - 175 games
Marvin Lewis - 2003 - 100 games
Tom Coughlin - 2004 - 96 games
Mike McCarthy - 2006 - 94 games
Sean Payton - 2006 - 80 games
Mike Tomlin - 2007 - 82 games
John Harbaugh - 2008 - 72 games
Jason Garrett 2010 - 41 games

.

I always felt Garrett was going to be here for a lonnnnnnggg term. Ie. Landry.

I did feel that he was altering his own destiny by muffing up decisions and games.

Good thing he leaned on running game. Continued to do so.... We hope.





But he is barely half of the games as the guy in front of him. Exactly half as the next guy down.

It doesn't scream longest tenure... Yet... Not even close...

 

[KJJ]

Right now as of his 5th season the only guy he picked in the first 3 rounds since the 2009 draft who busted has been Mo Claiborne. I'll list all the guys picked in that timeframe:

Dez
Lee
Tyron Smith
Bruce Carter
Murray
Mo
Tyrone Crawford
Travis Frederick
Gavin Escobar
Terence Williams
JJ Wilcox
Zach Martin
Demarcus Lawrence

Garrett has impute but Jerry has the final say on the players. Bruce Carter was a bust never lived up to the high expectations. Escobar has been a bust so far because like with the other 2nd round TE's the Cowboys have drafted there's not enough balls to go around especially with Jason Witten. The emergence of Beasley in the slot has limited Escobar's opportunities.

 

[Eskimo]

Garrett has impute but Jerry has the final say on the players. Bruce Carter was a bust never lived up to the high expectations. Escobar has been a bust so far because like with the other 2nd round TE's the Cowboys have drafted there's not enough balls to go around especially with Jason Witten. The emergence of Beasley in the slot has limited Escobar's opportunities.

Here's the thing - Carter was actually good but he is clearly a slow learner and was probably miscast as the WLB in the new system. Whenever you change schemes like we have that will happen. He was a key player on the defense last year and a highly sought after FA.

As for Escobar, he actually looks like a very good player whose opportunities have been limited because the incumbent doesn't want to take any snaps off and we're having a lot of success in 11 personnel when we want to pass. Witten's days are numbered and I think he will be the future starting TE. The problem with Witten is that he isn't the threat down the seam that he used to be and that allows teams to cheat with their Safeties in ways that they couldn't in the past. I hope this year we make better use of him but he's a good player stuck behind a great but ageing player.

 

[KJJ]

Here's the thing - Carter was actually good but he is clearly a slow learner and was probably miscast as the WLB in the new system. Whenever you change schemes like we have that will happen. He was a key player on the defense last year and a highly sought after FA.

As for Escobar, he actually looks like a very good player whose opportunities have been limited because the incumbent doesn't want to take any snaps off and we're having a lot of success in 11 personnel when we want to pass. Witten's days are numbered and I think he will be the future starting TE. The problem with Witten is that he isn't the threat down the seam that he used to be and that allows teams to cheat with their Safeties in ways that they couldn't in the past. I hope this year we make better use of him but he's a good player stuck behind a great but ageing player.

Carter showed flashes but he was never consistent which ended up getting him benched briefly. He never lived up to the potential many had for him and never saw a second contract with the team. Due to his 2nd round draft position and only spending 4 years with the team he goes down as a bust. As for Escobar he could very well be an outstanding player but like with the other 2nd round TE's the Cowboys wasted picks on he's not receiving the opportunity. The original plan was to play Escobar in the slot but those plans went out the window with the emergence of Beasley. The Cowboys didn't draft Escobar to replace or take snaps away from Witten they had a plan but Beasley has turned into a reliable slot receiver who moves the chains.

 

[CowboyRoy]

At times Garrett did bail on the run too early but it wasn't working very well and the Cowboys defense was being shredded through the air. The reason they committed to the run last season is because it worked to perfection. Murray entered the season highly motivated in a contract year and stayed healthy plus the addition of Martin solidified the OL.

Well, we will have to disagree here. They committed to the run because they decided before the season started that that was EXACTLY what they were going to do. Garrett had preached about running the ball in the past, but never fully committed. And Garrett was quoted by Linehan as giving him that exact instructions. Garrett finally threw in the towel and did it. And in my opinion, the big reason was that like the rest of us, he thought he was going to have to protect that defense after Lee went down and all the big names got dumped. He knew that if he didnt run the ball and control the clock, that he had no chance. And no doubt that after drafting another first round Olineman, he probably figured it would work.

 

[KJJ]

Well, we will have to disagree here.

Then let's move on.

 

[xwalker]

Carter showed flashes but he was never consistent which ended up getting him benched briefly. He never lived up to the potential many had for him and never saw a second contract with the team. Due to his 2nd round draft position and only spending 4 years with the team he goes down as a bust. As for Escobar he could very well be an outstanding player but like with the other 2nd round TE's the Cowboys wasted picks on he's not receiving the opportunity. The original plan was to play Escobar in the slot but those plans went out the window with the emergence of Beasley. The Cowboys didn't draft Escobar to replace or take snaps away from Witten they had a plan but Beasley has turned into a reliable slot receiver who moves the chains.

Not getting a 2nd contract is not really relevant in whether or not a draft pick was a bust. Once they are a free agent, they are just like any free agent from other teams.

If a team has a young player to take over, there is no problem moving on and saving cap space. In the modern NFL under the current CBA, the value of draft picks is during their rookie contracts.

 

[KJJ]

Not getting a 2nd contract is not really relevant in whether or not a draft pick was a bust. Once they are a free agent, they are just like any free agent from other teams.

If a team has a young player to take over, there is no problem moving on and saving cap space. In the modern NFL under the current CBA, the value of draft picks is during their rookie contracts.

Carter was a 2nd round pick who never lived up to expectations and ended up frustrating the coaches which is why he didn't receive a 2nd contract with the team. He had some good moments but he had just as many not so good moments that frustrated the team. If the Cowboys wanted him they would have had no problem signing him no one was offering him the farm ala Demarco Murray. Carter was never a consistent player therefore the Cowboys let him walk.

 

[KJJ]

Carters deal with the Bucs was a 4 year $17M deal that could end up being a 1 year 4.25M pact with no other guarantees.

 

[xwalker]

Carter was a 2nd round pick who never lived up to expectations and ended up frustrating the coaches which is why he didn't receive a 2nd contract with the team. He had some good moments but he had just as many not so good moments that frustrated the team. If the Cowboys wanted him they would have had no problem signing him no one was offering him the farm ala Demarco Murray. Carter was never a consistent player therefore the Cowboys let him walk.

The worth of the draft pick used on him was whatever production he provided while on his rookie contract. If you want to call him a bust based on what he didn't do on his rookie contract, I won't argue with that; however, that is independent of whether or not he was resigned. There are sometimes really good players that go to other teams for various reasons, but that does not mean there were a bust.

Under the current CBA, getting production from players on their rookie contract is the primary value of the draft pick because it allows the team to manage the cap. Once the players rookie deal is up, then the team has the choice of that player or other free agents that were drafted by other teams. Hometown discounts are rare and usually not significant if they do happen.

The except in QB because those generally are not available in free agency. There are quality 4-3 LBs in free agency every year.

 

[KJJ]

The worth of the draft pick used on him was whatever production he provided while on his rookie contract. If you want to call him a bust based on what he didn't do on his rookie contract, I won't argue with that; however, that is independent of whether or not he was resigned. There are sometimes really good players that go to other teams for various reasons, but that does not mean there were a bust.

Under the current CBA, getting production from players on their rookie contract is the primary value of the draft pick because it allows the team to manage the cap. Once the players rookie deal is up, then the team has the choice of that player or other free agents that were drafted by other teams. Hometown discounts are rare and usually not significant if they do happen.

The except in QB because those generally are not available in free agency. There are quality 4-3 LBs in free agency every year.

Carter was a bust in my eyes based off his second round draft status, the expectations the team had for him and his inconsistent play that caused the Cowboys to give up on him after only 4 seasons. He had a first round grade by several teams but an injury caused him to fall and the Cowboys saw him as a great value pick. There were some amongst Cowboy Nation and even some in the media that thought Carter could end up being better than Sean Lee. The expectations for Carter were sky high and he didn't live up to them. Every year predictions were being made on the board that he would have a breakout season and it never happened.

He had his moments and showed flashes but every year his inconsistency frustrated the coaches. He played a position of need for the Cowboys on a defense that desperately needs talent so allowing him to move on shows how disappointing he was. Teams are looking for a long future with their first and second round picks. When you grade drafts over the years you look at all the high picks that stuck past their rookie deals. If Carter ends up being a good player for Tampa it won't change the fact that he didn't pan out with the Cowboys.

 

[xwalker]

Again, 2nd contracts are not a big issue. Carter didn't live up to billing while he was here. They were going to re-sign him if the price was low. Even if the did re-sign him it would not have made up for his lack of production on his rookie deal.


My point is not about Carter. My point is that the current CBA (which has only been in place for 3 years) calls for low cost rookie contracts. Draft picks need to produce on the rookie contracts for teams to be competitive under the salary cap. Once those players become free agents they cost as much as any other free agent. Obviously, there is an advandage to the team with players that get franchised or get re-signed because of the franchise tag threat, but for really good but not franchise tag type players, the team can choose between re-signing them or free agents from other teams. Most good free agents were drafted by somebody. The fact that they didn't stay with their original team does not mean they were a bust.