Joyner: Shockey most overrated TE

[bobtheflob]

Shockey failing to make deep impact
By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider

This is the first of a series of articles covering the most overrated and underrated players in the NFL. The criteria I used was contrasting the player's 2006 metrics with his perceived performance level. This week's list features overrated and underrated tight ends.

Overrated tight ends

Jeremy Shockey
Shockey was a Pro Bowl alternate last year, but the metrics indicate he didn't deserve the selection. Shockey ranked 23rd in yards per attempt among qualifying tight ends last year (5.6). He ranked last in medium pass YPA and 18th in short pass YPA.
Shockey is perceived to be an excellent downfield threat when lining up as a wide receiver, but that is also a mirage. He had a 4.7 YPA on passes thrown to him when he was flexed out, a total that placed him next to last in that category.
In a nutshell, Shockey's YPA figures place him more in the company of Randal Williams and Alex Smith, not Jason Witten and Alge Crumpler (the other two NFC Pro Bowl tight ends in 2006).


Randy McMichael
This is the second consecutive year I've identified McMichael as being overrated. His move to St. Louis has revealed that some people still believe he is one of the elite tight ends in the NFL. The metrics say otherwise.
McMichael's overall YPA (6.9) was adequate, ranking him 13th among tight ends last year. Unfortunately, he is a one-trick pony. Of the 92 passes thrown to him last season, 71 were short passes (1-10 yards). The reason McMichael wasn't thrown more vertical passes is his YPA on the 21 combined medium/deep/bomb passes last year was a meager 7.0 yards.
McMichael also had the lowest YPA and success percentage for a tight end when flexed out. He should do a fine job in St. Louis as a check-down target, but he is certainly no longer one of the best tight ends in the NFL.



Underrated tight ends

Chris Cooley
Cooley is already considered by many to be one of the top 10 tight ends in the NFL, but the metrics indicate he deserves even more praise. Cooley posted the fourth-best overall YPA among tight ends. He had the sixth-best medium pass YPA and the best short pass YPA. His YPA when flexed out (10.8) was easily the highest in the NFL. That he was able to put up these numbers, despite the struggles of the Commanders' quarterbacks last year, speaks volumes about his ability.


Desmond Clark
Last year, Rex Grossman claimed Clark was his go-to receiver, and the metrics show why. He ranked third in YPA, finishing ahead of players such as Cooley and Jason Witten. Clark's numbers were not skewed by a smaller number of attempts:

In addition to his impressive overall numbers, Clark also ranked fourth in both medium and deep pass YPA. If he puts up similar numbers in 2007, he should receive a lot of votes for the Pro Bowl.

 

[Yeagermeister]

No surprise

 

[burmafrd]

My question about Cooley is he really a TE?

 

[Hoofbite]

My question about Cooley is he really a TE?

how would you suggest they list him?

 

[burmafrd]

Frankly, I say Cooley is not really a te; how often is he blocking- how often is he starting his patterns on the line, instead of in motion or split out?
TEs should be like Witten.

 

[Baileyneverfailey]

I think the skins call Cooley an H-Back, but he plays just like a TE. I hate the skins more than I hate any other team in any sport period, but he's a good player.

 

[Green28]

It's about time Cooley gets some recognition. He is without a doubt one of the top 5 or 6 TEs in the league.

Averages over the last two seasons:

Gates: 80 catches, 1012 yards, 9.5 TD
Gonzalez: 75 catches, 902 yards, 3.5 TD
Heap: 74 catches, 810 yards, 6.5 TD
Shockey: 65 catches, 757 yards, 7 TD
Cooley: 64 catches, 754 yards , 6.5 TD
Witten: 65 catches, 755 yards, 3.5 TD
Crumpler: 60 catches, 828 yards, 6.5 TD

 

[burmafrd]

Is it not interesting when SOMEONE comes along and decides to just compare the last 2 years of someones performance, just like that? Why not compare the last 5 years of all TEs mentioned- and if certain ones have only been around a couple of years its still fair if you go by career average.

 

[Alexander]

I could care less what his ridiculous metrics say.

I would take Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey every day of the week over an average talent like Desmond Clark.

This is what happens when statistics go wild and people bother to pay too much attention to them.

 

[burmafrd]

I guess the real measure is what do they do in the 4th qtr with the game on the line?

 

[Cochese]

I could care less what his ridiculous metrics say.

I would take Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey every day of the week over an average talent like Desmond Clark.

This is what happens when statistics go wild and people bother to pay too much attention to them.

Especially when you considered the Bears drafted Olsen because their TE position for the past few years has been shambles.

Yea, Im sure Desmond Clark is going to get pro bowl consideration this year, great call KC.

 

[5Stars]

Chris Cooley is a good player...to bad he's stuck on that team. I wonder if the Commander's will have enough money to keep him when his contract is up?

Or he could come to a real team...the Dallas Cowboys if he want's to be a real winner.

 

[Vintage]

I could care less what his ridiculous metrics say.

I would take Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey every day of the week over an average talent like Desmond Clark.

This is what happens when statistics go wild and people bother to pay too much attention to them.

I think you are missing the point.

I don't think KC Joyner is saying that Shockey and McMichael are inferior to Clark....but rather, Clark outperformed both of them last year.

That is all the metrics seem to be suggesting. Its not an analysis of who is necessarily better; but who performed better. Or not necessarily saying that someone on the overrated list doesn't have more value, or won't contribute next season in a better way, than the underrated guys.

I think its more of an underrated/overrated list on players based on last years production.

 

[Vintage]

Is it not interesting when SOMEONE comes along and decides to just compare the last 2 years of someones performance, just like that? Why not compare the last 5 years of all TEs mentioned- and if certain ones have only been around a couple of years its still fair if you go by career average.

All he was saying is that Cooley has been peforming the last two years on an elite level.

 

[31Rwilliams]

As much as i don't like shockey he's not overrated

 

[superpunk]

I wish we had Giants fans that posted here.

Like good ones. Not crappy ones.

As much as i don't like shockey he's not overrated

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I think its more of an underrated/overrated list on players based on last years production.

exactly, Shockey hasn't been the force many were expecting him to be, he hasn't even cracked 1,000 yards yet

gotta give props to Cooley though, he's a player

 

[jimmy40]

I could care less what his ridiculous metrics say.

I would take Randy McMichael and Jeremy Shockey every day of the week over an average talent like Desmond Clark.

This is what happens when statistics go wild and people bother to pay too much attention to them.

Shockey sure doesn't look overated when RW tries to cover him.

 

[Future]

Shockey talent wise is not overrated, I'd say hes a top 5 talent at TE in the league. The problem is that he's a head case, his coach doesn't give him the ball, and his QB stinks.

 

[Idgit]

I wish we had Giants fans that posted here.

Like good ones. Not crappy ones.

And some unicorns. Some not-crappy Giants fans and some unicorns would be awesome on this board. And maybe a post now and then from Santa.