Kaiser Rolls out analysis 1/1

[LocimusPrime]

It wasn't a great start for Dak, no. But we did get 3 out of it. Tony looked great.

Tony looked like a ninja slicing that defense.
Slice like a ninja , cut like razor blade. His was release was SO fast

 

[Bluefin]

I think they can resign Leary if they want to, there will be a ton of cap space available next year.

Without question.

And the same argument applies to Collins, he is a FA after 2017. If he is better than Leary and Leary will get a huge payday, won't Collins get even more?

La'el Collins does have a higher ceiling and no known knee issues, which is a concern with Leary.

And Collins will cost more, whether it's as a RFA in 2017 or UFA in '18. The price goes up every year.

Leary is also a pure guard, Collins can also play tackle and most likely learn center as well.

And wouldn't the same logic apply to his trade value? If he is good enough to start in Dallas and start over Leary, why would he not have trade value? He was considered a top 15 pick in his draft year and he hasn't lived up to that IMO, but he is the same player but with more experience. No team would give up a #3 for that?

Guards don't have much trade value.

It's very rare to see one selected in the first round, the best ones go in round two most of the time and you can find solid starters in rounds 3-4.

Why trade for a guard who will be a RFA after next season and basically missed this campaign due to injury?

If you keep the pick and draft a guard, he'll be cheap labor for the following four seasons.

Jerry always keep the players he wants to keep, if Dallas wants him back he will be resigned before the FA window.

Agreed.

But it will cost extra to keep a player from testing the free agent waters.

The best option for keeping Ronald Leary might be to let him stick a toe in and see if there are any nibbles.

Maybe the big offer he wants isn't forthcoming. Then staying in Dallas becomes more appealing.

Unlikely, without question, but we'll find out in 2.5 months.

 

[Bluefin]

Tony looked like a ninja slicing that defense.
Slice like a ninja , cut like razor blade. His was release was SO fast

The following is from Jeff Sullivan, he of the oversized, bald noggin.

I have been pretty mute on this topic, at least in print, and there’s really no reason to break that trend. The week before last, I was watching practice and, my word, did Romo look unreal. Just making throws that only a handful of quarterbacks have ever made in my lifetime, dropping balls in spots where almost no one else would even throw. It is what it is, right? Sadly, and ridiculously unfairly, if the Cowboys don’t win the Super Bowl there are always going to be questions and debate about who should have been taking the snaps.

This is all confusing on so many levels. Dak Prescott deserves being in the discussion for NFL MVP, yet he’s not the best quarterback on his team. I’m sorry, he’s just not. Regardless of who you think deserves to start, I am guessing, I am hoping that everyone agrees on that. Look, Daniel Day-Lewis is the best actor of the last 30 years, right? That doesn’t mean if you give him Leonardo DiCaprio’s role in Titanic it’s a better movie.

 

[ringmaster]

As much as we love Dak, Zeke is the key to making this team what it is. It all starts with Zeke controlling the game on the ground. DMC is not a bad player but you saw what a huge dropoff it was with Elliot out of the game. The offense was a fraction of what it normally was.

It was good to see Romo being Romo, I think its 90% certain he is traded but it was great to see him in the game. Fittingly, what was likely his last pass as a Cowboy was a TD.

Mark Sanchez is a slightly below average NFL QB who is better than he showed today – and that should tell you how bad QB play in the NFL overall.

It should also make you thank the Football gods again for the lightning strike Dak Prescott in the 4th round represents - and the fact the team will go from Romo to Dak without a ten year stretch of Quincy Carters and Chad Hutchinsons.

So if the Cowboys treated this like a preseason game, I mostly have thoughts about backups for next year’s team.

We got longer looks at players that should be quality backups next year, most of whom will significantly improve with another year of experience. Next year we will have very good depth at LB (Hitchens, Nezeocha, Wilbur), Safety (Heath and Wilcox), and DL (Thornton, Gregory, Mayowa, Jack Crawford and either Irving or TCrawford).

David Irving didn’t do a lot in this game, but at this point I want the team to tell him he is the starting LDE in 2017 and plan his offseason accordingly.

Randy Gregory clearly showed the physical skills today (again). The play that jumped out to me was him chasing Sproles down on a screen pass. You could see Sproles jawing at Gregory and it may have been from something he said, but live it looked like Sproles was shocked that a DE could catch him. I think the issue on Gregory is expectations, he will clearly improve if he can spend the offseason in practice and the film room – but to me they should plan on him being a nickel package pass rush specialist next year. Let him spend a year or two in that role without any pressure.

Nzeocha looked good and will be the backup Mike next year, Gachkar looked good today but IMO he only helped himself get a FA contract next year with a different team.

Cleary didn’t get anyone killed today, which is newsworthy. I want to see how they grade him. If he can be a decent backup next year it’s a bonus.

Kavon Frazier had some plays and will be a better player next year – and a quality backup.

On the potential Free Agents and Salary Cap cuts, this is my take after this game –

Doug Free – bad game today but I think he probably comes back. He has had some good games this year but has been totally inconsistent. He isn’t worth the 5 Milllion he is owed next year, but I don’t think they can count on Chaz Green to replace him quite yet.

Terrance Williams – He made some plays today (mostly because Romo has his timing with him down pat) but I really don’t see him resigned. I think our #2 WR next year is a new FA or high draft pick.

Barry Church – likely to return at a lower cap hit than his current 5 Million number.

Ron Leary – resigned for his power and fit with the others, Collins possibly traded.

Alfred Morris – Morris is a high quality human being but if he looks like this at the end of the season from fatigue and not injuries (I don’t know the answer) then I don’t see him returning next year.

CBs – It makes sense for both sides for Claiborne to come back, Carr could return as well if the contract terms line up. Brown is the #2 CB next year but the team drafts a CB high next year.


My bottom line closing out the 2016 season is that we finish the year with dominant, young talent and no major holes to fill in the offseason. Given the fact that we will have a ton of cap money to spend this offseason and have drafted very well for the four years – the rich should get richer next season.

Good analysis as always @Kaiser your breakdowns of games are always enjoyable to read but I will have to disagree with you about the team trading La'el Collins to resign Leary imo that just won't happen Leary will be a starting LG with another team a handsomely paid one at that he will want a king's ransom and no way the team pay him that type of money knowing that Martin's extension is just around the corner after next season.

 

[AbeBeta]

I'm surprised they haven't looked at Pettigrew already, especially considering Escobar's play. They really miss a blocking TE.

It is odd. My be that Pettigrew is looking to take his Detroit dalary, get healthy, and go to TC with someone.

A quality blocking TE is good offseason target. Likely relatively inexpensive and a spot where a one year deal for a guy in his 30s should be on the table

 

[Kaiser]

Leary is also a pure guard, Collins can also play tackle and most likely learn center as well.

I think the best scenario is Collins at RT next year but it seems like the coaches don't want to play him there for whatever reason.

Again, I'm not trying to pack his bags for Collins and drive him to the Airport, I'm just throwing out a scenario that, IMO, would help the team if it lined up. But there are a lot of moving pieces that likely won't fall into place.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

Elliott doesn't play at all, and we get 134 yards and 10 points on our first three drives. 3rd-string QB comes in, and we get 61 yards and 3 points on our next nine drives.

To sum that up as a "huge drop off without Elliot" is bad analysis. That's a huge drop off from the top 2 QB to QB #3, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Ezekiel Elliott.

YUPPPPPPPPPPPP

 

[Idgit]

Tony looked like a ninja slicing that defense.
Slice like a ninja , cut like razor blade. His was release was SO fast

Yep. It was pretty much exactly what we should have expected him to do, too.

Now we get a couple weeks of wondering did we really make the right QB decision.

 

[windjc]

Yep. It was pretty much exactly what we should have expected him to do, too.

Now we get a couple weeks of wondering did we really make the right QB decision.

I think we did. As good as Romo looked, its different to perform over the course of the entire 60 minutes at that level. Teams aren't prepping for Romo. So he is at an advantage. Could Romo had lead us to 13-3? - surely possible as he did it once before. But Dak has proven so consistent game in and game out.

Good to know that if Dak gets hurt, we won't lose a step within the same game though. It was great seeing Romo make it look easy.

 

[Kaiser]

Yep. It was pretty much exactly what we should have expected him to do, too.

Now we get a couple weeks of wondering did we really make the right QB decision.

Since I'm apparently going to be banned for questioning Percy I'll throw this out there. I think the team would have the same record with either Dak or Romo at the helm (health permitting of course). With Romo we would have won the first Giants game with better red zone conversion but we would have lot a game Dak won where Romo gambled too much and lost.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

The first quarter of the game.

Did we watch the same game?

We had 173 offensive drives this season. So 10.8 per game. Dak had 53 yards in his two drives. So I guess almost a 300yard per game average was some significant dropoff? :|

Especially considering the minuscule sample size?

 

[Kaiser]

Did we watch the same game?

We had 173 offensive drives this season. So 10.8 per game. Dak had 53 yards in his two drives. So I guess almost a 300yard per game average was some significant dropoff? :|

Especially considering the minuscule sample size?

I love how you start a post with "Did we watch the same game" and have to edit it from saying 600 yards per game down to 300 yards per game.

If you are saying we went 13 - 2 by Dallas averaging 27 yards per drive, I'm ...ummm.. afraid I have to disagree.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

I love how you start a post with "Did we watch the same game" and have to edit it from saying 600 yards per game down to 300 yards per game.

If you are saying we went 13 - 2 by Dallas averaging 27 yards per drive, I'm ...ummm.. afraid I have to disagree.

IF you think we didn't start some of our big yardage and points games with two medicore drives...what game have you been watching? Dak specifically has played much better late in games than early.

In any case those first two drives had very little to do with Zeke not playing. And if you wanted to point at anything...maybe point to missing 40% of our starting offensive line?

 

[StarOfGlory]

Any interest in Benny Logan? Don't think Philly can resign him, although he wants to stay in Philly.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Mark Sanchez is a slightly below average NFL QB who is better than he showed today – and that should tell you how bad QB play in the NFL overall.

Sanchez is not remotely a "slightly below average NFL QB." He's been terrible everywhere and in every opportunity.

He was a starter for the Jets from '09 through '12. Never once did he manage a passer rating of 80 or a QBR of 45. Checking FO's opponent-adjusted stats, they have him as the 35th, 28th, 29th and 35th best passing QB in the league in those years. He was a bit better in '14 with the Eagles: FO had him 23rd, and he managed a passer rating in the 80s for the only time in his career. Mark Sanchez is a replacement-level QB at best.

 

[JD_KaPow]

We got longer looks at players that should be quality backups next year, most of whom will significantly improve with another year of experience. Next year we will have very good depth at LB (Hitchens, Nezeocha, Wilbur), Safety (Heath and Wilcox), and DL (Thornton, Gregory, Mayowa, Jack Crawford and either Irving or TCrawford).

I was reading Mike Tanier's article today and he was listing the best and worst units among the playoff teams. Obviously, the Cowboys have the best OL, but then there was also this...

Depth

Best: Cowboys. Worst: Steelers. It's hard to picture the Steelers' winning if anything happens to Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, James Harrison or one of the veterans on the offensive line or in the secondary. The Patriots may have better overall depth than the Cowboys, but there is something reassuring about having Tony Romo sitting on the bench.

...and it occurred to me that this is the first time in as long as I can remember that lack of depth isn't a massive problem for this team. Even in the good years ('07, '09, '14), the team was just horribly thin at many positions, because of poor drafts and cap management. But that's no longer the case. We lack top-line talent on D, but the backups are adequate just about everywhere, where in the past we were scraping the bottom of the barrel if a starter went down at any number of positions. It's a nice change for which I give Garrett a lot of credit.

 

[JDSmith]

Not arguing, but do you think the first two drives with Dak looked this year's Dak? I don't and that was my point.

I'm not sure how people thought those were good drives. We had the ball twice and did virtually nothing, netting all of 3 points in a quarter - yeah, that 12 points per game pace was pretty stellar. And that was with McFadden in there, who is a pretty good back. But he's no Zeke and if you take Zeke out of this offense Dak would find the rowing to be a lot harder.

I also think it's funny how many people think the offense was fine because Romo did well without Zeke. Ummm, last time I checked they weren't playing Romo. Maybe I missed the memo that Rome is going to start in the playoffs, in which case I fully support that idea the offense will still look pretty good without Zeke.

 

[Stash]

@bkight13 and @xwalker have posted the numbers repeatedly. The team can free up 40 Million if they want to, and that is before gaining 5 Million from trading Romo.

They may have that ability, if they want to mortgage future years, but I don't expect them to do that, especially to keep Ron Leary. If his market is low, maybe they'll make an attempt, but I wouldn't get my hopes up.

 

[percyhoward]

Care to expand on that?

"With Elliott out of the game, the offense was a fraction of what it normally was" rings hollow with people who saw how we moved the ball early without Elliott. Depending on how many possessions we get, we were on a pace for 350-400 yards and 27-30 points without Elliott until the #3 QB came in. So it sounds like either you didn't watch the game all that closely, or you're simply not being objective.

Somebody's bound to point out that kind of thing, so don't be surprised or take offense when it happens. All part of the give and take.

 

[Stash]

It is odd. My be that Pettigrew is looking to take his Detroit dalary, get healthy, and go to TC with someone.

A quality blocking TE is good offseason target. Likely relatively inexpensive and a spot where a one year deal for a guy in his 30s should be on the table

I'm expecting the TE position to look pretty different next year from how it did this year.

Witten and Swaim will be back, but any other faces will be new ones I think (counting Gathers).