Kiper chat 4/24/14....

Risen Star

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http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50467/nfl-draft-insider-mel-kiper


Buzzmaster
(2:01 PM)

Mel will be here in a couple of minutes to take your questions!

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Buzzmaster
(2:05 PM)

Mel is here!

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Jimmy D. (Little Falls)

Which Irish defensive player has a better chance of going in the first round? Nix or Tuitt? Thanks

Mel Kiper
(2:05 PM)

Tuitt. He is a 3-4 DE. He can play in some 4 man fronts. Nix is a NT only. Tuitt is a guy that could be a mid to late first. Nix is a second.

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Carl (Iowa)

Does Ra'Shede Hageman make it out of the first round?

Mel Kiper
(2:06 PM)

He could. But I don't think he does. He goes in the late first. He provides scheme versatility. He's a late first, probably. I have him going to New England.

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Rob (Madison, AL)

Any chance Jordan Matthews makes it out of the 1st Round?

Mel Kiper
(2:07 PM)

He could. I have him in the late first. There are a lot of teams that desperately need WRs. There is an 80-90 percent chance he goes in the first. He is in the mix. I have him going to SF.

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Tony (Richmond, CA)

Has Tom Savage elevated his draft stock to the 2nd or 3rd round?

Mel Kiper
(2:08 PM)

Yes. Big arm. Spins the ball as well as anybody. Played behind a horrible OL. He has the physical capabilities that coaches like. Cincinnati could be a possibility.

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B Mand (Sarasota, FL)

If Watkins and Evans are gone by pick 7, what direction will the Bucs go?

Mel Kiper
(2:09 PM)

You would probably be looking then to trade out. That would be a good option at that point. There is talk, our Ed Werder reported, that Tampa Bay has a strong interest in Manziel. If they don't want him, you trade out. You could reach for Beckham Jr., but that's a reach. There isn't anybody that would fill a need that you take at that point.

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kurt (Buff)

Mel, thoughts on the extra few weeks of draft buildup? Does it give you more time to analyze, or just more time to weed through teams BS?

Mel Kiper
(2:10 PM)

With all of the juniors, 98 of them, that is a lot of players to evaluate. More than any other year. It's a deep draft, so more time to go over the players. But I preferred an April draft.

Mel Kiper
(2:10 PM)

It builds the anticipation. It would be like pushing Christmas back.

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Johnny (Nebraska)

Mel - anyone outside of Baptiste from Nebraska have legit pro prospects?

Mel Kiper
(2:11 PM)

He's the main one. There are a couple of other options, who have a chance to get a late round consideration.


Mel Kiper
(2:11 PM)

He will probably be a second or third round pick.

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Matt (Chicago)

Mel, I absolutely want the Bears to get Aaron Donald, who would be the teams interested in Donald that pick ahead of the Bears?

Mel Kiper
(2:12 PM)

The Giants at 12. That would be about it.

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Sean (Boston)

Three years from now will we be talking about Logan Thomas the quarterback or Logan Thomas the tight-end?

Mel Kiper
(2:13 PM)

Debateable. The team that drafts him in the third round will hope that he develops as a QB. He'll have a chance to sit, watch and learn to be a QB. If he doesn't show promise by years three and four, he will probably be a TE.

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Jay (Los Angeles)

Did you read McShay's draft article today? Do you really thing Manziel drops all the way down to Cleveland's 2nd pick?

Mel Kiper
(2:13 PM)

No. No chance.

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Troy (Colorado)

Hey Mel, when do you see James White going? 4-5th round? Is Terrell Fletcher a fair comparison for his NFL outlook?

Mel Kiper
(2:14 PM)

I would say more 5-7 round. There is depth at RB. There won't be a RB taken until the second round. He could have been a 3-4 rounder in a weak draft, but this is a strong one.

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Scooter (Minny)

If the vikings go defense with first two picks give me a sleeper QB or 2 that they could target in the 3rd round

Mel Kiper
(2:14 PM)

You'd be looking at Aaron Murray, Logan Thomas, maybe Jimmy Garoppolo, Zach Mettenberger.

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aj (oakland)

What trade value does Mike Glennon have? Is TB making a mistake giving up on him so soon?

Mel Kiper
(2:15 PM)

The GM and head coach didn't draft him. It's always about familiarity and who your guy is. They brought in Josh McCown to be their QB and there is talk they'll draft one. They're sending every signal that they're going to draft somebody.

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Jeff (Mpls)

Mel, do teams adjust their draft strategy now that the schedule is out? For instance, the Vikes face some tough QB's early on so with that influence them to go D at #8?

Mel Kiper
(2:16 PM)

If they're not taking a QB early, they have to go defense. They could go CJ Mosley. It's too early for a CB.

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Brian (Airdale, AR)

How many QB's do you see going in round one?

Mel Kiper
(2:16 PM)

Three.

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John (Wisc)

Who are your next best 5 safety's after Clinton-Dix and Pryor?

Mel Kiper
(2:17 PM)

Jimmie Ward, Northern Illinois; Deone Bucannon, Washington State.

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Jeff (Fort Frances, Ontario)

I really get the feeling Phil Emery isn't going to take the guy everyone thinks he will ( Donald, Ha Ha) would you be surprised if he took a guy like Hageman or Buchannon at 14?

Mel Kiper
(2:17 PM)

That would be high for those two. The safety would be Pryor to take at 14.

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Doug (Santa Barbara)

Hey Mel, what's the best-case scenario for the Rams this year?

Mel Kiper
(2:18 PM)

To come out of the draft with a RT, a safety, and a WR.

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Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)

Mel, After Eric Ebron? Is there a big drop off in TEs?

Mel Kiper
(2:18 PM)

Yes. Then you'd be looking at mid second rounders like Sefarian-Jenkins.

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Andy (GB)

Hi Mel, do you think Kyle Van Noy can be a productive ILB in 3-4?

Mel Kiper
(2:19 PM)

Yes. That's where he may end up playing. He played there at the Senior Bowl. He played every LB position at BYU. He's one of the best position players in the this draft. He goes in the second.

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chris (hermosa beach)

who are some teams in the 10-25 range that would be willing to trade back with the Niners and whap players would SF be targeting there? Evans? Gilbert? Dennard?

Mel Kiper
(2:20 PM)

Cincinnati. Arizona. Baltimore. That's, obviously if the players they're targeting are already gone, they'd be interested in moving.

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Michael (Cincinnati) [via mobile]

How big is the gap between QB's 1-5?

Mel Kiper
(2:23 PM)

If you had to grade them, you'd probably say there are four bunched together: Manziel, Bortles, Bridgewater, Carr. Then there would be a drop off to McCarron, Garoppolo, then a drop off to Thomas, Savage, Murray, Mettenberger. The next tier is Matthews (Cornell), Fales (San Jose State), Wenning (Ball State). Then another level after that with Boyd, Morris, Vaughn, Gilbert (SMU), Guiton, Smith (Wyoming). There are a lot of QBs, but there are tiers.

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marcos (miami, fl)

How likely does Mosley fall to the Fins lap? If both Z. Martin AND Mosley fall who do the fins pick up?

Mel Kiper
(2:23 PM)

He could. But he could go anywhere from 8 to 21.

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Pete (Cincinnati)

Should the Bengals be looking for Daltons replacement in this draft? If so, who should they be targeting?

Mel Kiper
(2:25 PM)

I think they will be looking for an insurance policy. 1 TD and 6 INTs in his playoff games, where he's 0-3. If he doesn't get it done another year in the postseason, you have to get it done at some point. They could look at Savage. If it doesn't work this year, then you have someone to compete. It's not like Dalton is a bad QB, but he has to play better. During his career, it's not getting it done in the playoffs.

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jeff (Maryland)

Do you think Ebron is a good fit for the bills? I think they shoudl take him

Mel Kiper
(2:28 PM)

That's about as high as he could go. I prefer them to take an OL. EJ Manuel needs some protection. Ebron is not a blocker. They need a OL to protect Manuel. A TE would be a luxury pick at that point.

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Buzzmaster
(2:30 PM)

Hold on a second....Mel is getting notes about his upcoming TV hits this afternoon. Be sure to check him out on NFL Insiders, NFL Live, SportsCenter and everywhere else on ESPN's networks later today.

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CBrown (Tahoe)

The question is how many QBs go in the first two rounds? Seems like a big run due in the 30s and 40s. 8 total maybe?

Mel Kiper
(2:33 PM)

I would say 7, maybe 8.

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Louie (Tampa)

Mel, would it be a better draft strategy for the Jets to fill the CB hole at 18 (Dennard/Gilbert)? And then target WR in the 2nd round (perhaps trading up) because WR is so deep and CB is not?

Mel Kiper
(2:33 PM)

It could go either way. I would prefer, if I'm them, to get a Brandin Cooks in the first and then get LaMarcus Joyner in the second. Or Pierre Desir. I think you could go WR, CB and be in good shape.

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Carl (Iowa)

Odds that Houston trades out of #1 overall?

Mel Kiper
(2:35 PM)

I would say 25 percent. That would be with someone moving up to get Clowney.

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Clay (Dallas,TX)

Jack Mewhort or James Hurst? Which player projects better for teams that pass on OT early on?

Mel Kiper
(2:36 PM)

Mewhort is a second or third round pick. He can also play center. He could project to center. Hurst is coming off an injury. He has ability, but the injury puts him down to 4-6 round.

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Grant (LA)

Jake Matthews is losing some buzz to Robinson and Lewan and seems to be falling in draft stock. Any chance he slips to the Rams at 13?

Mel Kiper
(2:36 PM)

No. I don't think he gets past 9 to Buffalo. And I don't think he gets past Giants at 12.

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Andy (Hartford)

How does Louis Nix compare as a prospect to Vince Wilfork coming out of Miami ten years ago?

Mel Kiper
(2:37 PM)

Wilfork had a significantly higher grade in my opinion. Nix has to improve stamina and endurance.

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Bunny (Colorado)

Which receiver that'll get picked after the 3rd has the highest ceiling?

Mel Kiper
(2:38 PM)

Paul Richardson, Colorado; Robert Herron, Wyoming; Kevin Norwood, Alabama; Brandon Coleman, Rutgers; Allen Robinson, Penn State.

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Batman (Gotham) [via mobile]

Hey Mel! Since one of the top QB prospects us bound to fall, wouldn't it make sense for the Browns to wait until their second pick to take a QB? We know the Browns have tons of other needs!

Mel Kiper
(2:39 PM)

Depends who they like. If they like Manziel or Bortles, you take him at 4. They'll have a choice, they'll both probably be there. If they want to wait until 26, they could get Carr or Bridgewater. They need to have a plan. They have other needs.

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Jon (Seattle, WA)

If there wasn't a combine/pro-day, do you think Teddy would still be in play for the first pick or do you think part of the reason he has slipped is due to the fact that analysts have had more time to study his tape?

Mel Kiper
(2:39 PM)

No.

Mel Kiper
(2:39 PM)

Clowney is a once in 20-year guy. No one is going ahead of him. Maybe Andrew Luck.

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Matt (OH)

If the Browns draft Sammy Watkins and Johnny Manziel does that make them a playoff contender?

Mel Kiper
(2:41 PM)

I don't know about a playoff contender. You have to see how the QB plays, whether it's Hoyer or anyone else. They need a WR and a QB. They also need another OL. I'm not sold on them. Another OG wouldn't hurt. But if they got the QB they really liked at 26, that helps. If they get Watkins at 4 to go opposite Gordon and then a second round pick early in the second, then you've got something going there.

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Clay (Dallas,TX)

Earliest round you would feel comfortable drafting Aaron Colvin, assuming corner was a position of need?

Mel Kiper
(2:42 PM)

Third round. It would have been the first, if not for the injury.

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Rah-Steam (Hackensack, N.J.)

What team would make the best use of Anthouny Barr in your opinion?

Mel Kiper
(2:44 PM)

He's got a lot of talent. He has to develop a defensive mentality. Learn how to be a quality LB. He has some to learn about the position. There are times when he looks lost. He has talent, you just have to coach him.

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John.C (Buffalo,NY)

How good of a player do you think Ryan Shazier can be in the NFL?

Mel Kiper
(2:45 PM)

In the right system, he can be very good. Impactful player. I think he could be a 3-4 ILB. A WLB in another front. Late first, early to mid second.

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Kyle (Toronto)

Assuming there are no trades and Clowney and Robinson go 1-2, if your're running the Jags, would you take Watkins, Mack, or one of the QBs?

Mel Kiper
(2:45 PM)

Watkins. I think he's in play no matter what. Clowney's going to be gone. Even if Robinson is in play, you go Watkins.

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Jwathree (Royal Oak, Mich.)

What's your take of the talk the Lions are going to trade up for Sammy Watkins? Would that be a good move?

Mel Kiper
(2:47 PM)

You have to give up a lot to go up from 9. I don't think they have what it takes to make that move. They have a woeful defense. You'd get another weapon for the offense. You'll help them with that move. But you need help on defense. This defense has got to get better. Their needs are CB, S, OLB. Their defense was poor. Watkins is a potentially great player.

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Mitch (Michigan)

Is Demarcus Lawrence a good fit for the Raiders in Round 2?

Mel Kiper
(2:48 PM)

He's a second round pick. I think he can play on his feet. He could be a late 1. He's a sleeper for the first. He's a good football player.

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C-NAGS (BIG Apple)

Who else from PSU you see getting drafted 1st couple ays besides Allen Robinson?

Mel Kiper
(2:49 PM)

The best one, Robinson will be a third round pick. Jones at NT is a big body, 320 pounds. He could be a higher pick than Robinson. I think Jones could be the first PSU player drafted.

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Bill (AZ)

Better fit for Cardinals if both are there at 20, Bridgewater or Carr?

Mel Kiper
(2:49 PM)

Carr. Better arm. Strong arm. It fits with what they want to do.

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Ed (Saginaw)

Mel, what do you make of the DE, Martion from UNC? Does he have starter written on him or more of a back up rotational type guy?

Mel Kiper
(2:50 PM)

He's more of a run guy. His pass rush skills have improved. I think he's a 3-4 DE.

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John.C (Buffalo,NY)

Mel, Where do you see Xavier Su'a Filo going in the draft? 1st or 2nd rd?

Mel Kiper
(2:50 PM)

Second round.

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B Mand (Sarasota, FL)

Where would the DT, Easley have been drafted had he not gotten hurt?

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Mel Kiper
(2:51 PM)

Second round.

Mel Kiper
(2:51 PM)

Second round. Now he looks like more of a fourth or fifth round.

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Shawn (Detroit)

Which QB is most NFL ready...Savage, McCarron, or Mettenberger?

Mel Kiper
(2:53 PM)

Savage.

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Andy (GB)

If I was looking for C in 3rd round or later that could zone block, who should I consider?

Mel Kiper
(2:53 PM)

Weston Richburg, Colorado State. One of the more underrated players.

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Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)

Mel, How versatile is Aaron Donald? Can he play all 4 DL positions?

Mel Kiper
(2:54 PM)

He's a 3-4, one gap penetrator. Tampa at 7 is perfect.

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Jimmy D. (Little Falls)

Jets brought in Garappolo for a visit. Do you think he or Geno would be better long term answer for the franchise?

Mel Kiper
(2:55 PM)

Long term? They're about equal. Their grades are similar. Smith has a leg up with his year in the program. He showed some promise. He was a turnover machine. That's expected as a rookie. He has to limit that.

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Whiskers (Needles,CA)

What is the Patriots biggest draft need?

Mel Kiper
(2:56 PM)

They don't have anything that's defined as something they need or they're in trouble. I have them taking a DL. DL, TE, S, and a big back. Hyde maybe in the second round. TE like Fedorowitz. DL and S are big. They have tried and failed at safety a lot.

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Mikey (Lackawanna,NY)

Who is the better zone blocking OT? Robinson/Matthews or Lewan?

Mel Kiper
(2:57 PM)

Robinson.

Mel Kiper
(2:57 PM)

All three are good. Matthews as a RT, LT has the most versatility. Robinson is the best athlete and Lewan is the nastiest.

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Silver (Cal)

Where does SD go in the draft? More offensive weapons for Rivers? Pass rush?

Mel Kiper
(2:58 PM)

They need a NT. Jones from PSU would be a nice pick. Fuller would be a nice pick.

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Adam (Phoenix)

If Mike Evans is there at 11 dont the Titans have to take him?

Mel Kiper
(2:59 PM)

Their WRs are OK. They feel decent about their WR group. They don't have to go that route. They could go OLB, CB, RB, QB.

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Mel Kiper
(3:00 PM)

We have two more pre-draft chats. This could have been draft day today, in about 5 more hours. But we're pushed back two more weeks.
 

Fredd

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as always, love this stuff....there were some things that caught me a little off guard from Mel

* That he likes Savage as much as he does
* that he sees Carr being drafted ahead of Bridgewater
* that he sees Donald as a perfect fit @ #7
* Jordan Matthews in the first round
* Mosley to the Vikings @ #8 (a possibility)

just some of the things that I noticed that don't follow the main-stream ideas
 

dallasdave

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as always, love this stuff....there were some things that caught me a little off guard from Mel

* That he likes Savage as much as he does
* that he sees Carr being drafted ahead of Bridgewater
* that he sees Donald as a perfect fit @ #7
* Jordan Matthews in the first round
* Mosley to the Vikings @ #8 (a possibility)

just some of the things that I noticed that don't follow the main-stream ideas

I love the stuff Kiper brings to the table too, he says what he thinks and is not worried what others think about it or him... That's why I like Kiper, he is not afraid to stand alone and is his own man.
 

Fredd

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I love the stuff Kiper brings to the table too, he says what he thinks and is not worried what others think about it or him... That's why I like Kiper, he is not afraid to stand alone and is his own man.

I agree...I don't always agree with him, and some of his picks are head-scratchers, but I would hate it if everyone thought the same thing...
 

jterrell

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various:
I like Kiper doing this much more than mocks or pure rankings.
The questions seem to focus him, lol.
In fairness to him he's admitted he hates mocks and the player rankings change based upon whose drafting for what system.

He didn't say Carr would go before Bridgewater or should, he said if it is Arizona picking it's Carr.
Easley falling that far was also an interesting note.

Savage is 24. He should be mature and ready to roll.
 
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