Landmines, Pitfalls and Quicksand

[ItzKelz]

Stephen has the cap as good as its been since FA started back in the 90's or at least it seems that way. I have no reason to believe that Stephen doesn't know what he is doing as far as managing big contracts and players that are close or nearing the end of their prime.

 

[Kaiser]

LOL at Jarwin having 70 catches and 800 yards.

He had 20 catches in his last four game. Project that over 16 games and its 80 catches.

I don't see him getting either number next year, but he will catch at least 40 balls if he gets signfiicant snaps next year.

 

[Sydla]

Stephen has the cap as good as its been since FA started back in the 90's or at least it seems that way. I have no reason to believe that Stephen doesn't know what he is doing as far as managing big contracts and players that are close or nearing the end of their prime.

I hope he manages big contracts better than he does small ones in FA.

 

[ItzKelz]

I hope he manages big contracts better than he does small ones in FA.

The smalls ones have been handled masterfully IMO. I would need an example to know exactly what you mean.

 

[Kaiser]

If every player being discussed has developed to the level that they are worthy of being amongst the highest paid players at their respective positions then why aren't the Cowboys a more dominant team.

LT - one of the highest paid
C - one of the highest paid
RG - one of the highest paid
RT - one of the highest paid.
LG - rookie 2nd rd contract.
QB - apparently worthy of 25 to 30 mil a year which would be in the top tier of highest paid players in the history of the nfl.
RB - Already talk about how expensive his 2nd contract is going to be.
WR - being discussed as being the 3rd highest paid WR in the history of the NFL.
DE - Lawrence apparently worthy of being the highest paid 4-3 DE in NFL history.
DT - Crawford has to be amongst the highest paid rotational 3 tech in the NFL and has been for years.
CB - shutdown corner that needs to be paid as an elite CB despite one good year and no interceptions.

Hard to dominate when the first three guys you list are on IR or playing through injuries that would keep most players off the field.

Also Lael Collins has the 7th highest salary in a league where 5 - 10 RTs shouldn't be playing at all, that is basically middle of the pack. His salary is 7MM and the league average is 5.5MM.

Amari Cooper may not get top 3 money for the current NFL WR's, much less the all time list. Ditto for DLaw.

Tyrone Crawford is the 29th highest paid DL, not a good situation but its hardly an albatross contract. There is also a significant chance he reneogiates his deal downward.

 

[Sydla]

The smalls ones have been handled masterfully IMO. I would need an example to know exactly what you mean.

In FA, he's signed some dogs. Nolan Carroll lasted a month but was a cap hit for two seasons, for example.

They love the cheap contracts in FA but most don't work out and end up being wasted money. They don't use FA very wisely IMO and a big reason for that is Stephen.

 

[Future]

He had 20 catches in his last four game. Project that over 16 games and its 80 catches.

I don't see him getting either number next year, but he will catch at least 40 balls if he gets signfiicant snaps next year.

True if you ignore the playoffs, when they played actual NFL defenses.

40 is easy. You can catch 40 checkdowns. But there's a huge difference between a 40-catch, 350-yard TE and a 70-catch, 800-yard TE.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

That's easy to say until you look it the whole of the production during the past contracts.
Is Dak's first 3 years of production really good enough to make him worthy of being amongst the highest paid players in NFL history?
Did Tanks first years really make him worthy of being the highest paid 4-3 de in history?
Byron Jones's first 4 years really have you thinking one of the best cb's in NFL history?
Amari really worthy of the 3rd best wr pay in NFL history?

This is a problem that needs to be addressed the way N.E. does it. Try to sign them and then trade them if they start thinking they are the g.o.a.t.

.....You do know teams been trying that 10+ years. Only to realize there's only ONE Brady and ONE Belichick.

 

[Kaiser]

True if you ignore the playoffs, when they played actual NFL defenses.

40 is easy. You can catch 40 checkdowns. But there's a huge difference between a 40-catch, 350-yard TE and a 70-catch, 800-yard TE.

Agreed, but 50 catches from a rotational TE is still a good player.

Jarwin caught every ball thrown to him in the playoffs, he caught 3 passes in 3 targets against the Seahawks, who do have a good defense. He caught 2 for 2 in the trainwreck against the Rams.

 

[Future]

Agreed, but 50 catches from a rotational TE is still a good player.

Jarwin caught every ball thrown to him in the playoffs, he caught 3 passes in 3 targets against the Seahawks, who do have a good defense. He caught 2 for 2 in the trainwreck against the Rams.

For a combined 32 yards. Any TE can catch 5-yard checkdowns.

Jarwin is fine. He's just not some monster receiving TE, especially in this offense.

 

[Kaiser]

Jarwin is fine. He's just not some monster receiving TE, especially in this offense.

He isn't a monster, but if he ends up as the featured TE it isn't impossible for him to get 70 catches in this offense.

 

[Hawkeye0202]

In FA, he's signed some dogs. Nolan Carroll lasted a month but was a cap hit for two seasons, for example.

They love the cheap contracts in FA but most don't work out and end up being wasted money. They don't use FA very wisely IMO and a big reason for that is Stephen.

Honestly, I'm starting to question they know how. Remember hearing a reporter ask a GM why his team hardly ever did trades. His response was simple......" we are not very good at it". Those were his words and frankly, I'm not sure Stephen does have the same cold feet.

 

[Verdict]

The front office is going to make or break this team for the foreseeable future with the decisions made over the next two years.

What if you sign Dlaw to the largest DE contract in the league like he wants and he takes a step back while Gregory takes another step forward? Dlaw had a couple of good years. Both of which were contract years. All of a sudden he is worthy of the largest DE contract in history? Imagine if we sign him and he ends up with 6 sacks next year and Gregory ends up with 12. How much will Gregory want to be paid?

What if you make Amari Cooper the 3rd highest paid WR in the league and he disappears like he did in Oak? I doubt this happens but I also doubt he will be the 3rd best WR in the league.

What if you sign Dak to a long term deal at what appears to be the going rate and he ends up being what he appears to be? A tough guy with accuracy problems that gets by as long as you have the best OL in the league and a Top 3 RB, and a defense playing over their heads, and 3 legit WR's. He looks like a mid tier QB to me with the possibility of growing into a top tier QB. If you pay him as a top tier QB then you are gambling. If you don't, you likely lose him.

Zeke - I can't imagine him doing any better than he has. In all likelihood his production is going to taper off some. Do yo want to pay him more than he is currently making for less production when current production wasn't good enough to win it all?

Byron Jones - One good year and fell off at the end and all of a sudden he should be paid like a shutdown corner? Every player on the team coming up for a new contract can't be paid like the g.o.a.t.

Jaylon Smith - the gamble appears to have paid off. Congrats. You got a couple of good years out of him. Can you afford to pay him for the next contract? After paying all these other stars of a 10 and 6 team? Hell, they are all superstars worthy of being amongst the highest paid at their respective positions.

Randy Gregory - it is looking like the gamble is finally starting to pay off there too. If he takes another step forward how much will ge be looking to get paid?

Lael Collins - already well paid. Is he going to be willing to take a smaller contract next year? Will we move on? If so will Williams pan out at RT? If he does, you better hope Sua filo continues to play well.

Sua Filo - Collins is gone, Williams is at RT and Sua Filo is playing well. How big will his contract have to be in 2020 to keep him? Especially when you consider what the rest of the O.L. are paid.

Blake Jarwin - His trajectory is up. If he takes another step forward he will be getting a huge pay raise next year too.

Antwan Woods and Maleik Collins. I think we are all hoping these two make major steps forward this year. Just in time for new contracts next year.

And people are talking about signing F.A.'s like Earl Thomas and Grady Jarrett? How?

You can't pay everyone like they are superstars. Especially when you are a 10 and 6 team.

If Dlaw wants more than 17 mil per year tag and trade him.
If Dak thinks he is the 25 to 30 mil a year man then he can seek it elsewhere. Trade him to Tampa.
Cooper is worth 15 per. Sign it or leave next year and we will take the comp pick.
Zeke has two more years of control and then see ya! Never use a top 4 pick on a RB again.
Sign Anthony Brown to an extension right now while he has never sniffed a decent pay day. That way if Byron thinks he is Revis he can pound sand.
Extend Jarwin now before he ends up with 70 catches and 800 yards next year.

When future extensions come up for the O.L. don't just immediately make them the highest paid players in the league at their respective positions. Play hardball and trade them if you have to.

Spot on. Expect lots of hate. Lol. I have been saying the same thing and some of these guys don't want to hear it!

 

[ItzKelz]

In FA, he's signed some dogs. Nolan Carroll lasted a month but was a cap hit for two seasons, for example.

They love the cheap contracts in FA but most don't work out and end up being wasted money. They don't use FA very wisely IMO and a big reason for that is Stephen.

Low impact cap hits don't bother me and typically the way SJ has structured those contracts they are heavy on incentives. For example how Greg Hardy's contract was constructed; very smart, low risk and high reward if it works out . Nolan Carroll may have been more of a Will McClay miss on talent and scheme fit but IMO there was nothing really wrong with the contract structure; decent bonus (which doesn't impact the cap at all) and we will see money.

 

[CPanther95]

I think the fact that they used a 1 on Taco and he is looking bustariffic only makes Gregory worth that much more if he continues to advance. He is reminding me a little of where Lawrence was following his 3rd year. If he blows up he is going to be in demand. Even with his off the field issues.

Well that's another way you can get a better bargain with your contracts - extend them just prior to them blowing up. But that's also how you can get into the weeds pretty quick if you miscalculate.

Bottom line is unless you have someone like Belichick, who knows the value of a player before even the player knows, you're going to have a percentage of contracts that end up a poor value. The alternative is letting go the core components of your team every couple years.

 

[Future]

He isn't a monster, but if he ends up as the featured TE it isn't impossible for him to get 70 catches in this offense.

No, it's not impossible. It is possible if they completely take Schultz and Swaim (if he's back) out of the gameplan and at least 1 WR gets hurt.

There are like 20 "ifs" that would have to happen for a TE to catch 70 balls next year. And even then, catching 70 doesn't mean being an 800 yard TE. More likely for Jarwin is that 70 catches means just south of 600 yards, b/c the Cowboys use TEs as checkdowns.

 

[Killerinstinct]

No, it's not impossible. It is possible if they completely take Schultz and Swaim (if he's back) out of the gameplan and at least 1 WR gets hurt.

There are like 20 "ifs" that would have to happen for a TE to catch 70 balls next year. And even then, catching 70 doesn't mean being an 800 yard TE. More likely for Jarwin is that 70 catches means just south of 600 yards, b/c the Cowboys use TEs as checkdowns.

He had 11.4 yards per reception last year. I threw out some figures. The bottom line Is I think if Jarwin ends up being the no 1 next year which he most likly will be unless they use a premium pick on a te or sign a F.A. then he will likely be in line for a big raise when his contract is over next year. Whether that is 70 catches for 800 yards or 60 catches for 600 yards. Either way he will be in line for a big raise.

 

[OmerV]

No, it's not impossible. It is possible if they completely take Schultz and Swaim (if he's back) out of the gameplan and at least 1 WR gets hurt.

There are like 20 "ifs" that would have to happen for a TE to catch 70 balls next year. And even then, catching 70 doesn't mean being an 800 yard TE. More likely for Jarwin is that 70 catches means just south of 600 yards, b/c the Cowboys use TEs as checkdowns.

Even at the end of his career Witten was doing better than the 8.6 yards per catch you say Jarwin would get, plus, for several years with Garrett as head coach Witten was over 11 yards per catch, so it's incorrect to say the Cowboys will only use TE's as a checkdown. Jarwin was at 11.4 yards per catch last season, and there is no reason to believe they won't try to get the same kind of production from him next year, but with more opportunities.

I do, however, agree that it's unlikely Jarwin will get 70 receptions, although he may get close. My guess is we will see around 85-90 total receptions from the TEs next season, with Jarwin to get about 65-70% of those, and Schultz and whoever else combining on the other 30-35%, Yardage could be anywhere from 800-1,000 yards. Of course, this is assuming we don't bring in a significant free agent, or draft a TE very early.

 

[cern]

In FA, he's signed some dogs. Nolan Carroll lasted a month but was a cap hit for two seasons, for example.

They love the cheap contracts in FA but most don't work out and end up being wasted money. They don't use FA very wisely IMO and a big reason for that is Stephen.

Carroll was a position of need but was a bust. awuzie and Lewis more than made up for it. Overall, stephen's done s great job.

 

[northerncowboynation]

The front office is going to make or break this team for the foreseeable future with the decisions made over the next two years.

What if you sign Dlaw to the largest DE contract in the league like he wants and he takes a step back while Gregory takes another step forward? Dlaw had a couple of good years. Both of which were contract years. All of a sudden he is worthy of the largest DE contract in history? Imagine if we sign him and he ends up with 6 sacks next year and Gregory ends up with 12. How much will Gregory want to be paid?

What if you make Amari Cooper the 3rd highest paid WR in the league and he disappears like he did in Oak? I doubt this happens but I also doubt he will be the 3rd best WR in the league.

What if you sign Dak to a long term deal at what appears to be the going rate and he ends up being what he appears to be? A tough guy with accuracy problems that gets by as long as you have the best OL in the league and a Top 3 RB, and a defense playing over their heads, and 3 legit WR's. He looks like a mid tier QB to me with the possibility of growing into a top tier QB. If you pay him as a top tier QB then you are gambling. If you don't, you likely lose him.

Zeke - I can't imagine him doing any better than he has. In all likelihood his production is going to taper off some. Do yo want to pay him more than he is currently making for less production when current production wasn't good enough to win it all?

Byron Jones - One good year and fell off at the end and all of a sudden he should be paid like a shutdown corner? Every player on the team coming up for a new contract can't be paid like the g.o.a.t.

Jaylon Smith - the gamble appears to have paid off. Congrats. You got a couple of good years out of him. Can you afford to pay him for the next contract? After paying all these other stars of a 10 and 6 team? Hell, they are all superstars worthy of being amongst the highest paid at their respective positions.

Randy Gregory - it is looking like the gamble is finally starting to pay off there too. If he takes another step forward how much will ge be looking to get paid?

Lael Collins - already well paid. Is he going to be willing to take a smaller contract next year? Will we move on? If so will Williams pan out at RT? If he does, you better hope Sua filo continues to play well.

Sua Filo - Collins is gone, Williams is at RT and Sua Filo is playing well. How big will his contract have to be in 2020 to keep him? Especially when you consider what the rest of the O.L. are paid.

Blake Jarwin - His trajectory is up. If he takes another step forward he will be getting a huge pay raise next year too.

Antwan Woods and Maleik Collins. I think we are all hoping these two make major steps forward this year. Just in time for new contracts next year.

And people are talking about signing F.A.'s like Earl Thomas and Grady Jarrett? How?

You can't pay everyone like they are superstars. Especially when you are a 10 and 6 team.

If Dlaw wants more than 17 mil per year tag and trade him.
If Dak thinks he is the 25 to 30 mil a year man then he can seek it elsewhere. Trade him to Tampa.
Cooper is worth 15 per. Sign it or leave next year and we will take the comp pick.
Zeke has two more years of control and then see ya! Never use a top 4 pick on a RB again.
Sign Anthony Brown to an extension right now while he has never sniffed a decent pay day. That way if Byron thinks he is Revis he can pound sand.
Extend Jarwin now before he ends up with 70 catches and 800 yards next year.

When future extensions come up for the O.L. don't just immediately make them the highest paid players in the league at their respective positions. Play hardball and trade them if you have to.

lol, what does 10-6 have to do with what teams pay their players? Do 10-6 teams have fewer dollars than 8-8 teams. More than 11-5. I'm confused. Or are you saying that the reason teams are 10-6 is because they pay their players more or less. I think we've been a 32-16 over the past three years partly because the cap has been managed better and we've walked away from aging vet big arse contracts like Dez. and Lee should take a pay cut. So let me get this straight if we go 16-0 we can pay them all like superstars or is it if we're 0-16 we can pay them all like superstars. The moves you're suggesting will move us towards 0-16 quicker than 16-0