Latest Vegas Super Bowl Odds--How We Stack Up (NFCE Bolded)

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.
Messages
21,976
Reaction score
33,152
You’ve got a handle on it.

What sports books are trying to do is 1) create action both ways on a given team and/or game and 2) hedge their bets by making the odds attractive for those betting on a team and those betting on the opponent (keeping in mind, serious bettors, whether they have a rooting interest or not, are trying to beat the house and will usually bet multiple games, regardless of their own home-team affiliation).

Plus, there’s the vigorish (basically a service charge), which the sports books charge as a % of any bet — win or lose. Depending on who you’re placing your bet with, the vig is nominally between @3%-7% of your bet. As long as there’s plenty of action, the house is making a ton off the vig alone.

Your NE scenario may seem like the house will lose it’s shirt. However, the odds (or points given/taken, as in the case of individual games) are set to attract as close to an equal amount of money bet the other way. Remember...bookies have no rooting interest; only how the odds look.

A good example of people believing the sports books lost their collective shirts is the ‘69 Namath SB (NY Jets vs Balt Colts).

The average spread was Colts -18.5. However, you could have likely made it -28.5 and most people at the time still woulda given up the points and bet on Baltimore. Most money was on the Colts.

The result was, the house made a killing on the losers who gave up the points, and they had to pay out comparatively little to the minority who took the points and bet the NY Jets. Factor in the vig on all bets, and the Jets/Colts SB was one of the biggest killings that the bookies ever made.
*where the hell's @aria ? ,as while it's probably of an old hat elementary nature to him in our plebeian beginner's crash course to the inner nuances of Vegas odds betting_he'd prolly lend creedance to what's being outlaid, GenoT,,, but he's probably struggling with a 450lb cardiac arrest call in the narrow confines of an seedy apartment's hallway,,,somewhereo_O
 

Blackspider214

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,661
Reaction score
15,494
I think a lot of people feel the same about the talent level on this team.

Jason Garrett is a terrible coach. No one respects him. They all know he will screw up no matter what. Also, this defense is still soft. Yeah they had a good stretch last season but once that Colts game came around, they were exposed for the real defense they were, which is not good. So soft up the middle.
 

GenoT

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,985
Reaction score
8,739
*where the hell's @aria ? ,as while it's probably of an old hat elementary nature to him in our plebeian beginner's crash course to the inner nuances of Vegas odds betting_he'd prolly lend creedance to what's being outlaid, GenoT,,, but he's probably struggling with a 450lb cardiac arrest call in the narrow confines of an seedy apartment's hallway,,,somewhereo_O
Melon...

Bottom-line: neither Vegas or your local bookie give a shoe about the Dallas Cowboys or any other team...and neither do serious sports bettors.

All most bettors care about is the action and beating the odds.
 

Melonfeud

I Copy!,,, er,,,I guess,,,ah,,,maybe.
Messages
21,976
Reaction score
33,152
This is the popular narrative with Wentz, and understandably so. He may be doomed to be an injury-proned QB. We really don’t know that as a fact though. There have been players that start their careers that way, but end up on a different note.

On the flip side, one thing many praise Dak for is his durability...3 full seasons in the books. People assume because he hasn’t missed a game that this will automatically be the case going forward. It could be him on IR in week 4 this year...we don’t know.

I get the current narratives...but they are just that.
* just cuz' I'd bestowed a "single like" upon you,an under the wire sapper of opponent teams fandom",,, don't mean were on a verbally chummy basis,Friend-0*

Dude, the one major problem I've noticed with Philly's qb Wentz, is in perceived game crunch time ,he'll expose himself to possible injury in order to "help make the play" ,,, I saw that virtue and/or character defect residing within him his rookie year,,, and it's not something where he's gonna easily be able to "flip the service panels lever switch" and stop from doing,,,also, that was an most astute& knowledged assessment in yer' opined view of our M#4 Sherman tank Quarterback:thumbup:
 

mcmvp

Well-Known Member
Messages
2,135
Reaction score
2,057
* just cuz' I'd bestowed a "single like" upon you,an under the wire sapper of opponent teams fandom",,, don't mean were on a verbally chummy basis,Friend-0*

Dude, the one major problem I've noticed with Philly's qb Wentz, is in perceived game crunch time ,he'll expose himself to possible injury in order to "help make the play" ,,, I saw that virtue and/or character defect residing within him his rookie year,,, and it's not something where he's gonna easily be able to "flip the service panels lever switch" and stop from doing,,,also, that was an most astute& knowledged assessment in yer' opined view of our M#4 Sherman tank Quarterback:thumbup:

Wentz does have to learn to ‘live for the next play’...couldn’t agree more
 

QuincyCarterEra

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,324
Reaction score
10,736
The talent and depth on this roster is near the top of the league. Yet those are the odds. The experts are significantly discounting something...

Of the teams listed above us, none of them have a clear worse roster than we do.

It might be near the top of the league, but so are many other teams.
 

Whyjerry

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,949
Reaction score
24,814
Of the teams listed above us, none of them have a clear worse roster than we do.

It might be near the top of the league, but so are many other teams.

Wrong. Do a man for man comp with the Pats. See what you come up with.
 

JoeKing

Diehard
Messages
35,471
Reaction score
30,977
The eagles shored up their already good defense thru FA. They signed a very good DT to play opposite Cox. They also got some good LB and secondary depth players.

They also had a good draft picking up a tackle, which should give them their new LT after Peters retires. Right now he will be great depth to have. They also got an very good RB ind the 2nd round and a good possetion WR.

Wentz has all the tools to be one of the next great QBs. The offense runs thru him already. He is now removed over one year from his ACL (and MCL ?) tear. That time is usally the time it takes for thar kind of injury to let the player be back to full strength.

If Wentz can stay healthy with all the weapons he has on offense (Jackson is also back as a deep threat) and with that defense dont take the Girls for a gimmey.
Was that line of Eagles propaganda suppose to answer my question? 9-7 > 10-6 when the Eagles are 9-7? :thumbdown:
 

QuincyCarterEra

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,324
Reaction score
10,736
Was that line of Eagles propaganda suppose to answer my question? 9-7 > 10-6 when the Eagles are 9-7? :thumbdown:

So if we win one less game than the Eagles next year, have a better free agency than the Eagles, have a better draft than the Eagles, have more players returning from injury than the Eagles, and play a weaker schedule than the Eagles, you'll have the Eagles above the Cowboys next year?
 

JoeKing

Diehard
Messages
35,471
Reaction score
30,977
So if we win one less game than the Eagles next year, have a better free agency than the Eagles, have a better draft than the Eagles, have more players returning from injury than the Eagles, and play a weaker schedule than the Eagles, you'll have the Eagles above the Cowboys next year?
You are talking to a diehard homer. I'll always have the Cowboys over the Eagles.
 

StarBoyz83

Well-Known Member
Messages
17,259
Reaction score
11,823
Jason Garrett is a terrible coach. No one respects him. They all know he will screw up no matter what. Also, this defense is still soft. Yeah they had a good stretch last season but once that Colts game came around, they were exposed for the real defense they were, which is not good. So soft up the middle.

07 and last year was the only time we've had a legit defense since like the 90s. So I'll take that over what we usually have.
 

QuincyCarterEra

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,324
Reaction score
10,736
Last year's defense was like 6th. Dont remember 2009 tbh.

Last years defense was 15th in points per drive allowed, and 16th in yards per drive allowed.

2009 was 2nd in points per drive allowed, and 10th in yards per drive allowed.

2009 defense included Spears, Ratliff, Brooking, Bradie James, Spencer, Ware, Newman, and Jenkins. 2007 defensive line was better with Ellis and Canty, but the off ball LBs and DBs were much better in 2009.
 

StarBoyz83

Well-Known Member
Messages
17,259
Reaction score
11,823
Last years defense was 15th in points per drive allowed, and 16th in yards per drive allowed.

2009 was 2nd in points per drive allowed, and 10th in yards per drive allowed.

2009 defense included Spears, Ratliff, Brooking, Bradie James, Spencer, Ware, Newman, and Jenkins. 2007 defensive line was better with Ellis and Canty, but the off ball LBs and DBs were much better in 2009.

I was just going off of their overall ranking. They were way better than most the defenses we've had. Besides 07 and 09. Glad you brought up 09 though.
 

Hadenough

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,342
Reaction score
12,566
Jason Garrett is a terrible coach. No one respects him. They all know he will screw up no matter what. Also, this defense is still soft. Yeah they had a good stretch last season but once that Colts game came around, they were exposed for the real defense they were, which is not good. So soft up the middle.
You got it! The first Commanders game kinda exposed the defense when Old man AP gashed the defense and that's where the Colts figured it out. I blame Marinelli and Jason is overseeing the coaches so he is to blame too.
 
Top