sjordan6
Member
- Messages
- 708
- Reaction score
- 0
McFadden isn't worth No. 1 pick
[SIZE=+1]Backs represent too much of a gamble in today's NFL
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1]03:06 AM CST on Saturday, December 29, 2007
[/SIZE]
[SIZE=-1][/SIZE]
http://www.***BANNED-URL***/sharedcontent/dws/img/standing/sports/columnists/mugs/mug_jtaylor.jpg
The question is not whether Darren McFadden, college football's best player, will succeed in the NFL.
The question is whether he's worth a six-year, $60 million contract with $30 million guaranteed, because that's where negotiations for the first player selected will start.
The answer: No.
No running back is worth that kind of money.
And my mind won't change even if he rushes for 300 yards against Missouri in the AT&T Cotton Bowl.
That said, reports surfaced Friday that McFadden is driving a fancy SUV that could jeopardize his eligibility for Tuesday's game.
As disappointing as that would be, McFadden will play in the NFL next season – as he should, whether he carries the ball in the Cotton Bowl or not.
After all, he's done all he can do at the collegiate level except win the Heisman Trophy.
You can talk to me – as mama used to say – until you're blue in the face about how great the 6-2, 205-pound McFadden will be in the NFL, and it won't change my mind.
You can launch into a soliloquy about his speed, vision and toughness.
You can wax poetic about his receiving, blocking and intangibles, and it wouldn't matter.
You can have Frank Broyles lecture me for next few days about how McFadden is Earl Campbell, Bo Jackson and Herschel Walker rolled into one, and I wouldn't take him with the first pick.
There's simply too much risk to take any running back that high.
Running backs break down quickly. Most start declining when they hit 28, and by the time they're 30, many are working daily to improve their handicap.
McFadden has a tremendous upper body, but he's not thick in the lower body, which concerns some scouts because he takes a lot of hits.
There were questions about Adrian Peterson's durability, but any knowledgeable scout will tell you his lower body is thick like a tree trunk.
Still, he dropped to the seventh pick.
Running backs take more hits than any other player, and it's nearly impossible to predict who can withstand the punishment as well as who understands that taking punishment is part of the job description.
You also have to figure out who can handle the pressure of being the epicenter of the defensive game plan each week and who can handle the scrutiny when there are no holes.
Finally, you have to determine if a player's success in his college offense translates to success in an NFL offense.
For example, McFadden won't be taking many direct snaps as a quarterback in the NFL.
For every LaDainian Tomlinson, taken with the fifth pick, there's a Cedric Benson (fourth overall).
Miami's Ronnie Brown (second overall) and Tampa Bay's Cadillac Williams (fifth overall) have been OK, but has either player come anywhere close to meeting expectations?
Nope.
We all know Reggie Bush has been a flop since going second overall in 2006.
The bust rate is high for supposedly can't-miss running backs.
Too high.
It's basically a 50-50 roll of the dice whether a runner taken at the top of the draft plays to his potential.
You tell me someone who would risk $60 million on a 50-50 wager, and I'll show you a fool.
Besides, you don't have to take a running back with the top pick to win in today's NFL because it's a quarterback's game. All of the rules are set up to help the passing game – not the running game.
A glance at the rushing stats heading into the final week of the NFL season will show you five of the top 10 rushers will be sitting at home when the playoffs start.
New England, about to become the first team to go 16-0, uses the running game as an afterthought. Dallas and Green Bay, the NFC's top two teams, would certainly have to be classified as passing teams.
The Cowboys feature Marion Barber, a fourth-round pick, while Green Bay relies on Ryan Grant, who began his career two years ago as a member of the New York Giants' practice squad.
See, that's the other problem with spending a premium pick on a player like McFadden – no matter how good he is. These days, you can find running backs everywhere.
Willie Parker, second in the league in rushing, was an undrafted free agent. Brian Westbrook, fourth in the league, was a third-round pick. Don't forget that Tampa Bay's Earnest Graham, who needs 103 yards to surpass the 1,000-yard mark after injuries forced him into the lineup, was an undrafted free agent.
And with many of today's NFL teams going to two-back systems, do you really need to invest tens of millions in a player who's not carrying the ball 25 times per game?
Nope.
That's why as good as McFadden is, he shouldn't go in the top five.
After that, he'll be more worth the money.
</SPAN>
