McShay Mock 3.0 3/2/16

[gimmesix]

First of all, you're showing me 20 years of NFL drafts while pointing to 6 players out of approximately 88 defensive ends drafted in the first round since 1995 and your example of Hugh Douglas. 6.82 %

Is that the rule or the exception? I think that's pretty clear.

Here's the fact check for anyone interested:

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/de

If you want to go by first-round draft success, then you're not going to want to draft any position except maybe offensive line and linebacker.

 

[Stash]

Actually it's eight top-quality ends who won defensive rookie of the year, which ties for the most at any position in that 20-year span.

And what are the requirements for "defensive rookie of the year"? To be a rookie, and to be better than the other rookies. That's it. Just because someone is the best rookie doesn't mean they're good. Just that they're the best of the group of young players who came into the league. Again, 6 out of 88 players over 20 years. Not good.

I don't know how Bosa will work out (or how any draft pick will workout). I know that he was a disruptive player in college who consistently got into the backfield and made plays behind the line of scrirmmage. I know that he's fantastic at hand-fighting and has really good movement skills to quickly go inside-out or outside-in on a blocker. I know once he gets a free path to a QB he explodes into him with force.

Is he a better talent than the players used as an example? I don't know. That's the trick with the draft.

His measurables aren't close to any of the players you've mentioned. The players you're mentioning we're running 40-yard times in the 4.5's and 4.6's, not 4.86 like Bosa. If you would like to make the case that he's in their class, I'd be happy to debate it.

A lot of draft pundits don't believe that the QBs in this draft are as good as in previous drafts, but you seem to believe we should take one at No. 4. I believe Bosa would have been a top pick in last year's draft, can you say the same for these QBs or is their stock being elevated simply because there's no one else available at their position?

Your belief is just that, a belief, we have no way of knowing about it one way or the other, do we? It's purely speculation unable to be proven or disproven.

They very well might not be as good as previous drafts, but we're also not picking at #1 or #2 overall either.

And despite any questions, both Goff and Wentz are ranked in the top 10 overall. I can spend the money and get a better pass rusher than Joey Bosa today in Mario Williams. What I can't do is get a potential franchise quarterback. If teams even think they have them, they never hit the market. When guys like Cousins and Bradford are getting $18-$19 million a year, that's crystal clear.

 

[Stash]

If you want to go by first-round draft success, then you're not going to want to draft any position except maybe offensive line and linebacker.

The success rate for first round quarterbacks drafted are significantly better than drafting them at any point later.

 

[gimmesix]

The success rate for first round quarterbacks drafted are significantly better than drafting them at any point later.

I'll agree with that, but overall, compared to other positions not very many QBs are taken. However, I don't agree with taking a QB earlier than he should go just because of that.

If Dallas has Wentz or Goff or both rated among its top tier of draft picks, then I have no problem with Dallas taking one of them. However, I'm not going to tear down other players universally considered among the top players in this draft just to make the QBs look better.

There is risk with taking any player, but a team basing its draft strategy on success rates is a poor way to approach a draft. That's how you end up reaching for a player who is not worth the pick. All I want is for Dallas to take a player who is rated worthy of the pick.

 

[Stash]

I'll agree with that, but overall, compared to other positions not very many QBs are taken. However, I don't agree with taking a QB earlier than he should go just because of that.

I don't either, and if there was another player that didn't also have question marks, I'd be interested in the possibility. But I'm just not seeing it. And when I've asked, nobody can begin to provide one.

If Dallas has Wentz or Goff or both rated among its top tier of draft picks, then I have no problem with Dallas taking one of them. However, I'm not going to tear down other players universally considered among the top players in this draft just to make the QBs look better.

I'm not trying to 'tear down' Bosa, or anyone else. What I am doing is pointing out that this is a draft where everyone has question marks surrounding them. And if that's the case, I'm swinging for the fences and taking the opportunity at possibly getting my next franchise quarterback. Because if I don't here, I have little to no chance of getting one anywhere else. Statistics and the economics of today's NFL clearly bear that fact out.

 

[gimmesix]

I'm not trying to 'tear down' Bosa, or anyone else. What I am doing is pointing out that this is a draft where everyone has question marks surrounding them. And if that's the case, I'm swinging for the fences and taking the opportunity at possibly getting my next franchise quarterback. Because if I don't here, I have little to no chance of getting one anywhere else. Statistics and the economics of today's NFL clearly bear that fact out.

I think we can swing for that fence another year and go for the double this year. I think Bosa and Ramsey are clear doubles with the potential to be more. Neither may be great, but both should have very good careers.

I don't want to strike out at No. 4 and I believe the QBs could be essentially a strikeout. Their draft status has been elevated because of the position they play relative to the players available at their position IMO.

 

[MikeT22]

And Lynch falls to round 2.

Wouldn't that be something if Dallas took him there.

That would be interesting, but I don't think he'll fall to us in the 2nd. I could see a team in late first taking him or someone behind us in the 2nd moving up into the late first or top of the 2nd to take him.

 

[Stash]

I think we can swing for that fence another year and go for the double this year.

How do you do that when you're drafting in the teens and twenties? Or are you envisioning this team going 4-12 again or worse next year?

I think Bosa and Ramsey are clear doubles with the potential to be more. Neither may be great, but both should have very good careers.

I can get a better player with more upside than Bosa in Kevin Dodd at the end of round 1 or top of round 2. Ramsey is a fine player, but where's he playing? Corner? Safety? And I'm not passing up a potential franchise quarterback for either. I can get a starting corner or safety in free agency, I can't come close to getting a starting quarterback.

I don't want to strike out at No. 4 and I believe the QBs could be essentially a strikeout. Their draft status has been elevated because of the position they play relative to the players available at their position IMO.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

These career numbers say anything but "strike out".

 

[BlindFaith]

I would take that but I don't see the explosiveness that Allen had. If he's JAred Allen then im all for taking him but I don't even think the guy is a consistent double digit sack guy.

On measurables alone they are both almost identical, except that Bosa is a little better in the 3 cone and Allen ran a 4.72 forty vs 4.86.

But overall I agree with you and don't think Bosa will pan out to be nearly as good as Allen.

 

[gimmesix]

How do you do that when you're drafting in the teens and twenties? Or are you envisioning this team going 4-12 again or worse next year?

Hopefully, we'll play winning division ball with Romo at QB the next three years, but if we don't we'll have the opportunity either at our position in the draft or by trading up. I don't know why people are viewing this as our only shot at getting a franchise QB, especially when there appear to be lots of questions about the value of these QBS.

I can get a better player with more upside than Bosa in Kevin Dodd at the end of round 1 or top of round 2. Ramsey is a fine player, but where's he playing? Corner? Safety? And I'm not passing up a potential franchise quarterback for either. I can get a starting corner or safety in free agency, I can't come close to getting a starting quarterback.



http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

These career numbers say anything but "strike out".

I obviously don't agree with you on Bosa and I think there is more of a consensus of him being a sure thing than Goff. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, though. As I said, it all depends on how Dallas values the players. If the Cowboys feel Goff is a top five pick, I have no problem taking him. If the Cowboys take Bosa instead, then I have no problem with that if they followed their board and believe he's the best player.

Again, I'm not married to a position or a player ... although I do believe Bosa would be the best pick. I just want Dallas to hit one out of the park and get someone who is going to help this team take a step forward.

 

[gimmesix]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html

These career numbers say anything but "strike out".

So did the career numbers of plenty of other QBs who struck out.

 

[Stash]

Hopefully, we'll play winning division ball with Romo at QB the next three years, but if we don't we'll have the opportunity either at our position in the draft or by trading up.

Really? Just like that? We just will? We manage 10 wins in 2016 and end up drafting at #20 or later, but we'll just trade up to get a too quarterback? Do you have any idea what the cost would be to do that, even assuming that the team at the top didn't want the quarterback? I don't think you do, otherwise you wouldn't have said it.

[quite]I don't know why people are viewing this as our only shot at getting a franchise QB, especially when there appear to be lots of questions about the value of these QBS.[/quote]

Where are these "lots of questions" about two guys ranked in the top 10 overall? If there were that many questions, neither one would be there. But, since there are questions about every player in this draft, they're ranked in the top 10.

I obviously don't agree with you on Bosa and I think there is more of a consensus of him being a sure thing than Goff. That doesn't necessarily mean anything, though. As I said, it all depends on how Dallas values the players. If the Cowboys feel Goff is a top five pick, I have no problem taking him. If the Cowboys take Bosa instead, then I have no problem with that if they followed their board and believe he's the best player.

Again, I'm not married to a position or a player ... although I do believe Bosa would be the best pick. I just want Dallas to hit one out of the park and get someone who is going to help this team take a step forward.

Any disagreements aside, we both want that, for sure.

 

[Stash]

So did the career numbers of plenty of other QBs who struck out.

I'd ask you to do some research before making claims like this. Goff did in one year what most of those guys didn't do in four.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

And Lynch falls to round 2.

Wouldn't that be something if Dallas took him there.

We could have the choice between Goff/Bosa/Ramsey in rd 1 and Lynch/Henry in the next. If one of the DT fall like Reed or Butler that would be sweet as well.

We're sitting pretty at 4.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I see Greg Ellis 2.0.

I really wish you guys would step up the Bosa analysis above this inane player comparison you guys are doing.

It started with comparisons to failures who had shuttle, jump, and cone scores that were significantly inferior. Now it's settled on the one where we cannot get the combine scores in Ellis. At least it's not SEC hype but it's not much better.

I think Bosa can compete with Williams, Peters, and especially Johnson. I think he will dominate Moses, and either of the current Giants OT. He has quick hands and for all the hyperbole being laid about when he was on ball read as opposed to tackle read on passing downs his first step ate up everyone he ran into. Teams triple teamed him. They sent double teams at him when they ran away from him.

He is large, quick, and powerful. His awareness and vision of his surroundings is excellent. He has the balance, timing and hand eye coordination to dominate on the outside dip and rip. His recovery when he's knocked off balance or down as well as on cuts is outstanding. His slaps on inside moves are jarring. NO TE in the division including longtooth Witten is going to be able to single block him consistently. He will dominate most league TE.

He has experience playing all line positions. Outside of running that 4.8 40, everything he does is awesome including the 10 yard split on the 40.

 

[DallasDomination]

I would be happy if we got Bosa at #4. QB's are usually the hardest player to find. Goff and Wentz could be out of league if they have to start right away. Bosa didn't run fast but the tape speaks for itself. If he's a bust he'll still be a solid depth player. And I highly doubt he'll be a bust.

 

[Stash]

I really wish you guys would step up the Bosa analysis above this inane player comparison you guys are doing.

It started with comparisons to failures who had shuttle, jump, and cone scores that were significantly inferior. Now it's settled on the one where we cannot get the combine scores in Ellis. At least it's not SEC hype but it's not much better.

I think Bosa can compete with Williams, Peters, and especially Johnson. I think he will dominate Moses, and either of the current Giants OT. He has quick hands and for all the hyperbole being laid about when he was on ball read as opposed to tackle read on passing downs his first step ate up everyone he ran into. Teams triple teamed him. They sent double teams at him when they ran away from him.

He is large, quick, and powerful. His awareness and vision of his surroundings is excellent. He has the balance, timing and hand eye coordination to dominate on the outside dip and rip. His recovery when he's knocked off balance or down as well as on cuts is outstanding. His slaps on inside moves are jarring. NO TE in the division including longtooth Witten is going to be able to single block him consistently. He will dominate most league TE.

He has experience playing all line positions. Outside of running that 4.8 40, everything he does is awesome including the 10 yard split on the 40.

Sorry, I just don't see a special player and certainly not someone worthy of taking at the # 4 pick. I feel I can get a better player with more upside in Kevin Dodd in the second. At pick #4 he'd have to be JJ Watt and he's not.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Sorry, I just don't see a special player and certainly not someone worthy of taking at the # 4 pick. I feel I can get a better player with more upside in Kevin Dodd in the second. At pick #4 he'd have to be JJ Watt and he's not.

JJ Watt was poo-pooed in a similar fashion. Here is sportsday which does a good job getting a feel for the scouting consensus.

WEAKNESSES
Won't consistently get the edge on tackles with his get off or quickness. Plays high at times, can be blown off the ball by the double team, but does fight hard to hold ground. Lacks some lateral mobility both rushing the passer and playing in space. Will occasionally give up outside contain.

Sounds an awful like you when you say Bosa isn't explosive off the snap. Now I get Watt is heavier and the better player but he's also a generational talent. There aren't one of those in every draft. That is an unreasonable standard.

Who is it that you want us to draft?

 

[gimmesix]

I'd ask you to do some research before making claims like this. Goff did in one year what most of those guys didn't do in four.

I did research. Go back and look at the college careers of most of the first-round picks who were busts. There are quarterbacks on that list who completed more than 70 percent of their passes as a senior, who had great TD-int. ratios, etc. The quarterbacks who fail in the NFL don't do it because they were poor in college. Most of them are drafted in the first round because they stood out in college productionwise.

Now, it would be great if there was an absolute tell on which QB to draft, but there just isn't.

 

[Stash]

JJ Watt was poo-pooed in a similar fashion. Here is sportsday which does a good job getting a feel for the scouting consensus.



Sounds an awful like you when you say Bosa isn't explosive off the snap. Now I get Watt is heavier and the better player but he's also a generational talent. There aren't one of those in every draft. That is an unreasonable standard.

Who is it that you want us to draft?

I'm hoping that Cleveland does take Wentz and we get Jared Goff. The one position that you cannot fill otherwise is starting quarterback.