Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Runwildboys

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Here's how Bill Walsh defined it. (It's a rollout, sprint-out or "waggle.")

Action Pass

The third category of pass that most people use is what we call the action pass, where your quarterback moves outside. There are a couple of reasons for moving outside. One certainly is to avoid the inside pass rush. For a dropback passing team we'll sprint-out "waggle" as we call it-outside to avoid blitzers who approach straight up the field on us. The other advantage is to bring yourself closer to the potential receiver.

We'll get outside to throw the ball and get ourselves closer to the man we want to throw to. When you can get outside, the trajectory of the ball can be flatter because normally there isn't a man between you and the receiver.

The versatility also includes changing your formations. We continuously change receiver width and spacing. We seldom will line up our receiver with the same spacing on two or three plays in a row. If we want to throw the ball to the outside, we will reduce the split of the receiver. We need running room to the outside. We don't want the ball in the air very long. If we want to throw inside, we will extend the split of our receivers, so that there is more maneuvering room to the inside, and spread the defense. Our backs, as many teams know will cheat to get where they have to be. We know that if we throw to backs, the first thing on their mind is how to release out of the backfield. We are quite willing to move the man to get the release and sometimes telegraph what we are doing. We are quite willing to do that with the idea that when we want to break a given tendency, we simply line them up there and run something else."
So basically, leaving the pocket without being pressured to is an action pass.
 

CB61

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Well all analytics aside if he can actually game plan different for each opponent and get the players disciplined and the guy he brought in fixes our defensive problems or at least part of them we should be all right? The real issues I want him to fix is the accountability and discipline. He might see something on Analytics that we're all missing he did study awful hard for a year according to him we shall soon see you?
 

garyo1954

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That's what I gather. It's just the term Mike McCarthy uses to describe a rollout or sprint out. Some teams call it a waggle, but I'm sure others have a different term for it.

Just more of that, "Everybody has their own terms for the same stuff" stuff.
 

garyo1954

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Well all analytics aside if he can actually game plan different for each opponent and get the players disciplined and the guy he brought in fixes our defensive problems or at least part of them we should be all right? The real issues I want him to fix is the accountability and discipline. He might see something on Analytics that we're all missing he did study awful hard for a year according to him we shall soon see you?

His Mission Statement says

We will establish an identity characterized by discipline, effort, toughness, and efficiency.
Discipline - penalties and assignment errors are unacceptable
Effort - game day and practice we will go fast and furious snap to whistle
Toughness - Our attitude is typified by tenacity and toughness
Efficiency - We will be 'machine-like' in execution. which will be the result of attention to detail philosophy.
 

Cowboysfan1975

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.

Hell lets run him out town as soon as possible!
 

65fastback2plus2

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The Hoodie heavily relies on analytics...you're hating on an analytics guy when the last guy we just dumped said he never checks.

I'll take the guy that does what BB does.
 

CyberB0b

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He also blatantly lied to the Jones boys in the interview and told them he's watched film on every Cowboys game. I think he's a con man.
 

CATCH17

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He also blatantly lied to the Jones boys in the interview and told them he's watched film on every Cowboys game. I think he's a con man.

These coaches never think it’s them that are the problem. McCarthy is no different. He’ll do what he’s comfortable doing.

I could tell when he was questioned about his playcalling he didn’t really think it was an issue and the big changes he was going to make were the structures to his program.

People that analyzed GBs offense thought it was too bland and basic.
 

KingintheNorth

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The hype about McCarthy and analytics is really more a statement on how poor a coach Garrett was with his stubbornness on not adapting analytics or his offensive concepts.

97% of NFL teams relied on analytics before McCarthy took over for Garrett. Now 100% of teams do.

Again, just speaks to how truly inept Garrett was.
 

doomsday9084

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He also blatantly lied to the Jones boys in the interview and told them he's watched film on every Cowboys game. I think he's a con man.

Someone correct me if I am wrong. If you have access to game tape, it takes like 15 minutes to watch an entire game. An entire season can be watched in an afternoon. Now, breaking it down to gameplan against it takes a lot more time though.
 

Proximo

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Just because he came to a different conclusion does not make him a fraud. Your approach here is decidedly unscientific.

The right question is to ask how he came to what he found. How did he justify it? for example, PFF uses league wide stats. If a narrower focus -say on the Cowboys- showed a different outcome then he would be justified.

Obviously, show skepticism but always consider it may be you that is wrong. And equally someone else being wrong does not make them a fraud.

LOL OP would NEVER consider that HE might be wrong, especially on a topic that gave him a manufactured opportunity to take a dig at Ezekiel Elliott, whom he has an unhealthy obsession with.
 

atlantacowboy

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


MM is absolutely correct. You do need an effective running game for the play action fakes to work. There is nothing controversial about that fact.

ANY analytics is better than none. JG flat out did not believe in analytics. So, even if MM only uses them to decide what to do on 4th down or inside the 5 yard line. Who cares? Its an improvement.

In regard to play action, you need a QB running the offense from under center for the play fake to work. Thats not Dak's strength. Dak is overwhelmingly in shot gun. Dak is and has been the limiting factor on offense.

https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/20...tt-kellen-moore-play-calling-third-and-short/
 
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VACowboy

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Like I said.. McCarthy is like all of these big ego coaches that speak about all the changes they want to do from what they did before but the reality is that they are just doing whatever it takes to get another million dollar job.

McCarthy sold everyone some BS and a lot of people bought it.
How the hell do you know the "reality" of Mike McCarthy's intentions? Geez, people. Put the crack pipe down. Let the man finish putting his staff together and, mmm, heck, I dunno, actually coach the team before you start screaming about how horrible he is? I realize some of you wanted the Dallas coaching search to go a different direction but it didn't, and the lengths to which some supposed Cowboys fans are going to manufacture stuff for bashing McCarthy would be funny if it weren't so frickin' weird. GET A GRIP! I realize it's human nature to believe the worst but maybe consider the idea that McCarthy wanted an NFL job again and actually put work in to make himself a better coach. Is it possible that he has no clue what he's talking about and this whole thing is going to flop? I guess it's possible, but not everything's an anti-Cowboys conspiracy.
 

starman22

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Like I said.. McCarthy is like all of these big ego coaches that speak about all the changes they want to do from what they did before but the reality is that they are just doing whatever it takes to get another million dollar job.

McCarthy sold everyone some BS and a lot of people bought it.

You are very consistent, but I sincerely hope you are wrong,. I hope you are as emphatic about eating crow if the Boys win a Super Bowl in the next few years.
 

atlantacowboy

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These coaches never think it’s them that are the problem. McCarthy is no different. He’ll do what he’s comfortable doing.

I could tell when he was questioned about his playcalling he didn’t really think it was an issue and the big changes he was going to make were the structures to his program.

People that analyzed GBs offense thought it was too bland and basic.

Link? Something to For all we know, Rodgers was changing things up at the LOS.
 
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coult44

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


The supposed best analytics coach in the NFL would be below average if it wasn’t for an insanely gifted athletic QB. All of it comes down to the players you have and how you use them.
 
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