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Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Toruk_Makto, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    do u think i am @Ranching or @dallasdave ?
     
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  2. Ranching

    Ranching Well-Known Member

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    Wow!!! I didn't know you were smart! I knew you were a smart*** but not smart!
     
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  3. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    :starspin: PUTTY POWER :starspin:

    does that mean i get @daboyzruleperiod first?
     
    Ranching likes this.
  4. Ranching

    Ranching Well-Known Member

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    :bow::bow::bow:
     
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  5. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    Ranching likes this.
  6. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    There's no reason to assume that this would only affect passes with play action, but not affect passes without. If the QB expects a run blitz, for example, he might eschew the play fake and target the vacated area of the defense, thus improving the success rate on non-play-action passes.
     
  7. Haimerej

    Haimerej Well-Known Member

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  8. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    This is what I'd like to think, that it's either lip service or "coachspeak" designed not to give anything away. Maybe both. Even if he does plan to make the team less run-happy, he certainly has nothing to gain by admitting it now.
     
  9. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    of course, a dominant pass rush would affect everything. it is not a matter of absolutes but a matter of biasing your data set.

    play action requires the qb to take his eyes away for the precious fractions of a second or more. that time becomes even more precious if defenders routinely get in the backfield in for example 2 seconds. it takes time for the qb eyes to adjust and refocus to a different depth. it would be simply riskier to run play action. not saying never, but just far less likely. so you are biasing the data set by removing a lot of the data points where the defense is dominant. by removing some of the data points, that just made play action seem more effective than it really is.

    that is only one example of simple self-selection bias. i remember my professor did all type of fancy (graduate-level) math to bracket the bias value for a single econometrics case. and that case was far less complex than football. and this is just one example and only 1 type of self selection. doing a real good statistical analysis of this issue is not simple even if it was possible.
     
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  10. garyo1954

    garyo1954 Well-Known Member

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    No in that case, it's much more fun to run a trap draw with the tight end and concuss the guy to the bench until he learns to leave my QB alone!
     
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  11. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    You could come up with multiple scenarios that make the success of play action more or less likely, and you could do the same for non-play action. That doesn't mean you simply throw up your hands though.
     
  12. McKDaddy

    McKDaddy Well-Known Member

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    Yeah, I feel that some of his "growth" is marketing talk. However, doesn't mean he won't be better than what we had.
     
  13. DarthVander

    DarthVander Active Member

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    Hey Toruk,

    Just an interesting random point I wanted to bring up. Did you know that the western banking system is pretty much out of gold? It’s simply running off paper.

    There is an Eastern family that runs China, and they have over 16 Olympic swimming size pools worth of gold.

    Certain insides believe there will soon be a switch and China will be running, what they claim to be, a more fair banking system worldwide.
     
  14. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    these are not hypothetical scenarios and there is an obviously biased data set. i certainly would not be making sweeping anti-intuitive general statements based on it.

    again, i am not privy to these models. though it sure seems like a simple regression with play action or no play action. i would expect much more detailed sophisticated analysis to be done rather than a simple regression with play action or no play action.

    what that analysis is, i have no idea. but if they really have a 14 man analytics team, then they could look at such a problem because i would suspect there are at least a few quants there.

    now if i were the cowboys, would i be throwing resources at such a question. i dont think so. because what would such an analysis do for you in games? would it really affect your playcalling? probably not much.

    i would probably spend resources in much narrower questions myself. such as tendencies of each team/coach that we will be playing. again football is a very complex situation for statistical analysis due to the complex interactions of 22 players. intuitively, the narrower you can focus your analytics, the more likely you will get something useful. the more you can reduce it to a situation like baseball pitching and hitting, the more likely you can apply whatever you figure out.
     
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  15. garyo1954

    garyo1954 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed.
     
    jterrell likes this.
  16. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    I am also an engineer that evolved to process engineer and project manager before just manager.
    Analytics nerds for the NFL need to take many deep breaths and go back to work.

    They have not yet managed to provide much more than raw data and some assumptions.

    The top 6 teams in the NFL in time of possession were in the playoffs. Top rushing teams in the playoffs. Top passing teams, largely at home.
    Reality is goofballs need to stop.
    If you can make it to the AFC CG with Ryan Tannehill then passing isn't so important as we have been chirped to by the Analytics community.

    In the NFL there has always been a cause and effect of what the offense does versus what the defense does.
    There is also a very real time component.
    EPA (analytics main football brainchild) at this point has missed the boat largely (as the master metric) because it does not sufficiently address time.

    We should have analytics nerds challenging each other harshly instead of this weird nerd herd mentality vociferously defending what is largely nonsense.

    PER TEAM analytics are VERY useless and helpful.
    Knowing a defense likes to play a set defense in a set situation is huge.
    Same in reverse.
    But saying well there's a 65% chance of success with the pass here is dumb. The Defense has that same number and knows to play pass defense.

    Throwing it on 1st down all game because EPA says so is just stupid and you should be beaten and dumped into a toilet like the nerds of yore.

    Every project I have hated was led by some goofball thinking they understand data. Then they made changes that were worse than the original while wasting time and money. That money usually equates to jobs and people lost. That usually equates to the people still around working twice as hard with more duties.

    Did Derrick Henry complete the TD pass because the play action was effective? Yes. Did they fully expect DH to run? Yes.
    Would play action work if you didn't run it AT ALL? NO, lol.
    Would it work if you didn't run it great? Yes. Because you are still going to have been taught certain techniques and have muscle memory.
    But you are much more likely to have an extra defender in the box if you are running well the defense has to adjust before you hit them with play action.
     
  17. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    I'm sure that will be case as it presumably is for every team, but in a study of whether run frequency/success affects play action success then obviously you have to look at the whole league, and preferably over several seasons -- which was exactly what Baldwin did in those three studies posted above.
     
  18. texbumthelife

    texbumthelife Well-Known Member

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    Yo, can I borrow your time machine?
     
  19. Pantone282C

    Pantone282C Zone Supporter

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    And that's because?
     
  20. texbumthelife

    texbumthelife Well-Known Member

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    Man, we need badges for these people who are nothing but negative so we all know to avoid any sort of realistic discussion with them.
     

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