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Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Toruk_Makto, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. Vtwin

    Vtwin Power and Performance

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  2. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Thank you sir.
    Forgot to mention I was once a Math Olympiad winner in a few different categories that at one point wanted to be a nuclear physicist.

    I hardly hate math but it's misuse is actually worse than ignoring it.
    CowboyStar88 and Vtwin like this.
  3. fifaguy

    fifaguy Well-Known Member

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    Going to wait for him to actually coach a game for the Cowboys before I pass judgement.
    ShortRound131 and percyhoward like this.
  4. Cowfan75

    Cowfan75 Well-Known Member

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    Out with the "process", in with "analytics".
  5. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Maybe even two or three.:D
    Boom, fifaguy and ShortRound131 like this.
  6. Runwildboys

    Runwildboys Well-Known Member

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    Something like "Debbie Downer", instead of "Well-Known Member"?
  7. LatinMind

    LatinMind iPhotoshop

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    I dont think any coach understand analytics. As harbaugh said he dont understand it he has people telling him and they go with it. And its been working.

    Play action works because its happening under 20 percent of plays. Meaning its catching teams by suprise. You dont have to be all scientific to understand this.

    You look at whats working in the nfl right now, its hard nose fundamental football. The teams who are playing power football and not making mistakes and turning the football over. The NFL is trying to taylor make this league for fantasy football, but the teams who are keeping it simple are the ones who are playing for the superbowl.

    This is the one thing that im not liking about mccarthy is he might be trying to dip into this whole new era type of football. But then i think and look at the coaches he has brought and theyre more oldschool types who preach simplicity and smart play. So we'll see.
    Runwildboys likes this.
  8. waldoputty

    waldoputty Well-Known Member

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    i looked at the pff one. there was nothing but the most elementary level of analysis possible. this is really stats 101.

    there is absolutely no attempt to remove any bias. people need to remember the #1 rule in stats - that is 'garbage in garbage out'. and trying to draw conclusions on pass efficiency vs. # of runs based on this flawed data/model? you have got to be kidding me.

    i certainly hope the cowboys can do better than stats 101 if they are paying for 14 people.
  9. jterrell

    jterrell Penguinite

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    Baldwin is a very sharp guy who's worst issue is people who follow him taking what he says to mean more than it actually does.
    That is a tough situation for any data scientist but more so for Baldwin who is paid for bringing in views/eyeballs.

    Scientists seldom agree on things so they test and test and test.
    In the NFL that is going to take time.
  10. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    Not sure what PFF one you're talking about. These were all from Ben Baldwin, and published at Football Outsiders.
  11. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    I usually just go with whoever presents the best argument.
  12. brooksey1

    brooksey1 Zone Supporter

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    Just because the stats can’t show it doesn’t make it so.. you should know that by now. There’s play action on almost every play now for some teams anyway.. so the argument is pretty dumb. Amateur stuff from stat rats. The real thing you’re hiding along with the OP is your position that all you have to do is pass and stop the pass to be successful in the NFL, that the running game is irrelevant etc. Then SF ran it 47 times yesterday and D Henry ran over Balt.. there’s more to it and u know it. Stop cherry picking stats
  13. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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  14. brooksey1

    brooksey1 Zone Supporter

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    I'm not sure what that old post says but I remember our arguments in 2013, you and Idgit saying there was no need for the run. Then Demarco ran for 2k in 2014 as we ran it 50% of plays, we went 13-3 and you disappeared. Then we did it again 50% run in 2016 and went 12-4.

    2019 back to 35%run, 65% pass #1 in NFL and back to 8-8.

    What does your old page/post say in one sentence?
    texbumthelife likes this.
  15. texbumthelife

    texbumthelife Well-Known Member

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    I dont understand why the man can say he wants to apply analytics as a tool and suddenly he's the devil for wanting to completely rely on analytics, when he's never said once that was the case. Sounds to me like he intends to use it to help make informed, educated game plans, taking advantage of it as ANOTHER source of information, not as the ONLY source. There seems to be a contingent of fans here who, per usual, go all the way to one extreme or the other generally in defense of their own negativity.

    The man hasn't even coached a practice yet and people are jumping on podiums about how he's gonna call games. Good lord, no one but MM, and maybe not even he knows exactly how he's going to apply analytics.
  16. percyhoward

    percyhoward Research Tool

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    It's from 2014, and it's about how defenses suddenly had to pick their poison because of the new threat of Dallas' running game. You think I "disappeared" in 2014, but there I was basically making your point. In a post that was evidently too long for you to read. Jeez louise.

    And what does this have to do with the effect of run success/frequency on play action?
    brooksey1 likes this.
  17. kumizi

    kumizi Well-Known Member

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    This thread reminds me of baseball threads from ten years ago.

    “You just don’t understand the game” if you don’t think batting average, stealing bases, bunting, etc are critical to winning. Just a short decade later, it’s widely accepted as fact all these things that were done for 100+ years aren’t really that important. Getting on base and blasting home runs corralates to winning.

    For football, it’s “you gotta run the ball to set up the pass” or “you gotta run the ball to win time of possession.” Eventually, people will realize none of that crappy matters all that much. Passing efficiency and turnovers will be accepted as the important stats.
  18. RoboQB

    RoboQB Well-Known Member

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    "Analytics" took a big hit last night in Baltimore.
  19. brooksey1

    brooksey1 Zone Supporter

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    I tried to read it and I fell apart a paragraph in lol. I'll take your word you were making my case. Ty, the OP disagrees says the run game is irrelevant and Zeke is a waste of a player etc

    I feel the same about PA... If you're running more or the run game is working PA should work better than if the run game stinks or is non existent. If the run game is no good or is non existent, the defense should have an extra guy or two against the pass.
    percyhoward likes this.
  20. cowboyfan4life2

    cowboyfan4life2 Well-Known Member

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    Football is a game of emotions this isn't baseball analytics don't work the same way.

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