Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Soth

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The issue doesn't seem as simple as that. The same article states the following:

"Prescott also averaged 5.1 fantasy points per game (with a 133.3 passer rating) on play action passes when Elliott was on that field, with those numbers dropping to 1.9 fantasy points per game (and an 83.0 passer rating) during Elliott’s suspension weeks. Perhaps teams didn’t take the threat of play-action as seriously without Elliott on the field, and Prescott’s efficiency suffered as a result."

From the same article:
"On the other end of the spectrum we have four quarterbacks who actually posted a higher passer rating on non-play-action passes. This seemed weird to me, but perhaps the connection is all four passers’ teams also ranked bottom-10 in team rushing attempts over our sample."

Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-quarterbacks-on-play-action

So McCarthy is right about establishing the run, but it seems like running effectiveness is not as important as run attempts. Also, results vary significantly from team to team and from QB to QB. I am not sure we can call Big Mac a fraud just for this statement. We also can't expect him to spill all the beans on his research. Do you think Bellicheat would willingly tell the media stuff he has found using analytics??
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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Let me preface my comments by saying I’m not contradicting you or arguing any point. I’m thinking aloud.

According to pundits and players, when an offense can run the ball well (however you reach that assessment), defenses are forced to commit extra defenders near the line of scrimmage, presumably making it more difficult to defend the pass.

In the aggregate, statistics show that running ball well does not correlate to passing the ball well. But I wonder how much those stats are skewed by differences in quarterback talent—ie Aaron Rodgers is going to be more efficient than Marcus Mariota no matter how many pass defenders he’s throwing against.

Do the metrics attempt to adjust for QB talent?

PFF is using league wide stats. I too am curious if different teams, QBs, or opposing defenses change those results.
 

blueblood70

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The issue doesn't seem as simple as that. The same article states the following:

"Prescott also averaged 5.1 fantasy points per game (with a 133.3 passer rating) on play action passes when Elliott was on that field, with those numbers dropping to 1.9 fantasy points per game (and an 83.0 passer rating) during Elliott’s suspension weeks. Perhaps teams didn’t take the threat of play-action as seriously without Elliott on the field, and Prescott’s efficiency suffered as a result."

From the same article:
"On the other end of the spectrum we have four quarterbacks who actually posted a higher passer rating on non-play-action passes. This seemed weird to me, but perhaps the connection is all four passers’ teams also ranked bottom-10 in team rushing attempts over our sample."

Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-quarterbacks-on-play-action

So McCarthy is right about establishing the run, but it seems like running effectiveness is not as important as run attempts. Also, results vary significantly from team to team and from QB to QB. I am not sure we can call Big Mac a fraud just for this statement. We also can't expect him to spill all the beans on his research. Do you think Bellicheat would willingly tell the media stuff he has found using analytics??
:popcorn::hammer:

of course not but the OP wants to go there and we should take what he says as truths because hes been coaching in the nfl for 25yrs..

oh wait...:facepalm::muttley:
 

rags747

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Listen I saw the whole analytics pitch as complete crap and salesmen ship. A coach is what he is, expecting one to change their stripes, well don’t hold your breath. Hopefully some culture will change here, but I knew that this analytics thing was complete ear candy to the masses.
 

CapnB

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Pretty sure he said they will have someone who does all the analytics stuff while hes here. And for the life of me, even analytics dont and wont work if you dont have the players that can execute.
 

JohnBoy

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As a fan, I would be outraged if the HC got on TV and discussed anything significant about his analytics, or really any other aspect of his strategy/scheme. An unbelievably stupid thing to do, if you ask me. I would simply give them platitudes and generic crap, or I might even give them outright false information, to throw my competition.
 

JW82

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Give me a break. It wasn’t analytics that made
Garrett suck. It was basic game and clock management. The ability to make halftime adjustments. I’ll take the guy that went to the playoffs 9 of his first 11 seasons and won a ring over the guy surrounded by nerds with pocket protecters. And I am in IT so I know those nerds...
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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McCarthy says he has changed and explained how he was changing with specifics. He has detailed how he wants his department set up and how he intends to use them of game day.

So what do people do?

Say he is lying because he cannot articulate something that is difficult to articulate in soundbites ie statistical analysis.

What I found really interesting was in his interview with Eatman on the mothership, McCarthy stated that procedurally, whoever was calling plays had to also be the one installing the plays in practice. That he had not done that in GB and it caused issues. He was changing that too.
 

Playmaker247

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The issue doesn't seem as simple as that. The same article states the following:

"Prescott also averaged 5.1 fantasy points per game (with a 133.3 passer rating) on play action passes when Elliott was on that field, with those numbers dropping to 1.9 fantasy points per game (and an 83.0 passer rating) during Elliott’s suspension weeks. Perhaps teams didn’t take the threat of play-action as seriously without Elliott on the field, and Prescott’s efficiency suffered as a result."

From the same article:
"On the other end of the spectrum we have four quarterbacks who actually posted a higher passer rating on non-play-action passes. This seemed weird to me, but perhaps the connection is all four passers’ teams also ranked bottom-10 in team rushing attempts over our sample."

Full article: https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-quarterbacks-on-play-action

So McCarthy is right about establishing the run, but it seems like running effectiveness is not as important as run attempts. Also, results vary significantly from team to team and from QB to QB. I am not sure we can call Big Mac a fraud just for this statement. We also can't expect him to spill all the beans on his research. Do you think Bellicheat would willingly tell the media stuff he has found using analytics??
Exactly. Belichick has gone on record saying he doesn’t use analytics when everyone knows that’s in fact straight bs
 
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