Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Toruk_Makto

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That is not what I am asking. It also has nothing to do with how I described how defenders behaved given their keys. The article you posted even backs up what I am saying.
It doesn't.

And it is well chronicled that Dak's struggles while Zeke were out were more accurately attributable to Tyron missing that time and not Zeke. Games in which Zeke are out and Tryon was in shows a very effective Zeke. Whereas games where Zeke was in but Tyron was out he struggled.

Using this as proof that play action doesn't matter for the Cowboys is weird.
 

Runwildboys

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So you mean the 40% of the time you run?
No, I mean if you fake punches to someone's face, he may flinch the first few times, but after that he'll stop believing you're going to hit him, unless you actually do. I was only replying to your analogy, not expressing any opinion of play action percentages. But IMO, play action will work regardless of how well you run the ball, unless you run so poorly that the defense can stop it effectively even when they're in full passing defense.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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This isn't an average. It is an analysis of play action effectiveness across teams that run a lot or a little and for those who run well or poorly.

And across the board it is the play action itself and not your running that dictates the increased efficiency.

Facts are stubborn things.


From your article:
Over the past three seasons, quarterbacks average a 103.5 passer rating on play-action, but only 90.1 the rest of the time.

If you are going to do a deduction in general you need to show how your example excludes the one you're arguing against.

The actual analysis is the entire article where he points out cases like the lowest rushing teams and particular players where the outcome is different. IOW the analysis details specific cases where it is not universal.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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It doesn't.

And it is well chronicled that Dak's struggles while Zeke were out were more accurately attributable to Tyron missing that time and not Zeke. Games in which Zeke are out and Tryon was in shows a very effective Zeke. Whereas games where Zeke was in but Tyron was out he struggled.

Using this as proof that play action doesn't matter for the Cowboys is weird.

So you are saying thee PFF article you cited is not trustworthy? Thanks for undermining your entire argument.

This show PA did not net a benefit for everyone ie not universal:

Barrett-17.png
 

gjkoeppen

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Look. I'm an engineer by training and now work at a big bank in investments. So yeah I like math and "analytics." I think they are instructive especially when careful study shows where what you believe to be true is in fact false. People who understand these counter-intuitive truisms claim a consistent edge.

There was much talk about how much Mike has learned in his year hiatus and how analytics was a big part of the thing he leaned on and has incorporated. And good lord he is not off to a great start. In fact it seems he is a fraud.

See below:



This is an awful quote. What he says here is the exact opposite finding from the analytics community.

In fact this is something I looked into when studying Zeke's pedestrian efficiency numbers last year (As a reminder we greatly overpaid Zeke after greatly over drafting him). But I digress....I posted this in August of last year...



What this shows is that play action passing is the most effective passes a QB can throw. And it hardly matters if you run the ball a lot. Or if you run the ball a little bit. And it does not matter if you run the ball well. Or if you run the ball poorly.

The point? If McCarthy is getting this basic thing wrong what confidence do we have that he actually learned anything in the last year, analytics or otherwise? And just like the Garrett era we can expect to give away the small edges that smart coaches understand and benefit from.

And that's a shame.


Since you told us what you did and do now and since none of it is as an NFL coach and what you have said is contrary what many if not most of the people that actually have NFL experience say I guess I got to say BS. Here is the blatantly obvious thing you have missed. When a team has a good running game the defense keeps more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage to STOP the run. This is why when teams with a good running game have so much success with play action passes. When the QB does that fake to the back the defenders hesitate for a moment initially thinking that have to stop a run but then then see it was a fake and that little hesitation is enough for receivers to get a step and be open. You might want to pick a different hobby.
.
 

Rayman70

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JEESH YOU ALL..There is no pleasing you. Everyone was calling for Garretts head, so when we fire him and get a HC with a Ring and a proven system, he doesn't even get a chance to show out on the field. lol.. MY GAWD!! Do you guys really understand how nuts your being? GIVE THE GUY A FAIR SHOT BEFORE YOU DEGRADE HIM. You want more Garrett? lol...sure makes me wonder. Point is, this may be the best coaching hire we have made since Parcells, some would argue, since Jimmy Johnson. Time will tell, but lets be positive.It appears to be a big house cleaning going on in Dallas and for me, its been a long time comin. Lets just wait and see what happens before we go Harry Carey on the guy. WIN LOSE OR DRAW, I AM ON BOARD THE MIKE MCCARTHY TRAIN. At least we see a concerted effort for change, and for now, its all we can ask. I'm in this til the bitter end. GO COWBOYS.
 

ESisback

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He hasn't coached a single game with Dallas and people already don't like him. Goodness.

That’s generally the crowd that finds fault with EVERYTHING. Nothing is perfect, nothing is guaranteed, but that doesn’t stop the perpetually miserable.
 

ESisback

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JEESH YOU ALL..There is no pleasing you. Everyone was calling for Garretts head, so when we fire him and get a HC with a Ring and a proven system, he doesn't even get a chance to show out on the field. lol.. MY GAWD!! Do you guys really understand how nuts your being? GIVE THE GUY A FAIR SHOT BEFORE YOU DEGRADE HIM. You want more Garrett? lol...sure makes me wonder. Point is, this may be the best coaching hire we have made since Parcells, some would argue, since Jimmy Johnson. Time will tell, but lets be positive.It appears to be a big house cleaning going on in Dallas and for me, its been a long time comin. Lets just wait and see what happens before we go Harry Carey on the guy. WIN LOSE OR DRAW, I AM ON BOARD THE MIKE MCCARTHY TRAIN. At least we see a concerted effort for change, and for now, its all we can ask. I'm in this til the bitter end. GO COWBOYS.

Amen, brother!
 

Toruk_Makto

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No, I mean if you fake punches to someone's face, he may flinch the first few times, but after that he'll stop believing you're going to hit him, unless you actually do. I was only replying to your analogy, not expressing any opinion of play action percentages. But IMO, play action will work regardless of how well you run the ball, unless you run so poorly that the defense can stop it effectively even when they're in full passing defense.
In this case punching someone is running the ball. Something McCarthy does 40% historically.

And whether he runs the ball well or frequently the play action game has proven to be successful. The exact opposite of his quote in the OP.
 

Toruk_Makto

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Since you told us what you did and do now and since none of it is as an NFL coach and what you have said is contrary what many if not most of the people that actually have NFL experience say I guess I got to say BS. Here is the blatantly obvious thing you have missed. When a team has a good running game the defense keeps more defenders closer to the line of scrimmage to STOP the run. This is why when teams with a good running game have so much success with play action passes. When the QB does that fake to the back the defenders hesitate for a moment initially thinking that have to stop a run but then then see it was a fake and that little hesitation is enough for receivers to get a step and be open. You might want to pick a different hobby.
.
What part of rushing attempts hardly matters and rushing efficiency doesn't matter to play action success don't you understand?
 

Runwildboys

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JEESH YOU ALL..There is no pleasing you. Everyone was calling for Garretts head, so when we fire him and get a HC with a Ring and a proven system, he doesn't even get a chance to show out on the field. lol.. MY GAWD!! Do you guys really understand how nuts your being? GIVE THE GUY A FAIR SHOT BEFORE YOU DEGRADE HIM. You want more Garrett? lol...sure makes me wonder. Point is, this may be the best coaching hire we have made since Parcells, some would argue, since Jimmy Johnson. Time will tell, but lets be positive.It appears to be a big house cleaning going on in Dallas and for me, its been a long time comin. Lets just wait and see what happens before we go Harry Carey on the guy. WIN LOSE OR DRAW, I AM ON BOARD THE MIKE MCCARTHY TRAIN. At least we see a concerted effort for change, and for now, its all we can ask. I'm in this til the bitter end. GO COWBOYS.
"YOU ALL"? I haven't read every response, but it didn't seem like that many people are against MM.
 

FuzzyLumpkins

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It doesn't.

And it is well chronicled that Dak's struggles while Zeke were out were more accurately attributable to Tyron missing that time and not Zeke. Games in which Zeke are out and Tryon was in shows a very effective Zeke. Whereas games where Zeke was in but Tyron was out he struggled.

Using this as proof that play action doesn't matter for the Cowboys is weird.

And lets not forget that you are changing the subject here. I was not talking about heavy boxes. I was talking about how defenders react to a developing PA attempt.

One thing you are completely obtuse to is the mechanics of why PA works. It is no secret that when a defender reads run they execute gap assignments. DL take a gap and stop pass rush, LB charge the LOS to fill their gaps, DBs peak into the backfield longer. That in turns stifles the rush and created space in the secondary particularly in the middle of the field.

IOW, for PA to work, you have to get defenses to read and react to a run. What your article states is that it is not that hard to run enough to get a defense to respect the run. Only the bottom 15% rushing attempt teams did not receive the benefit.

OTOH, what MM said was true. You do need to run enough to get that benefit.
 

Brooksey

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What part of rushing attempts hardly matters and rushing efficiency doesn't matter to play action success don't you understand?

Possibly one of the dumbest statements of all time...Btw -Tell that to the #1 seed SF 49ers
 

ESisback

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Another thing to consider...if a HC had a pass/run reputation of 60/40, wouldn’t it be smart to change up to gain that unpredictability quotient?
 
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