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Mike McCarthy's Analytics Fraud

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by Toruk_Makto, Jan 11, 2020.

  1. TheSport78

    TheSport78 The Excellence of Execution

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    Prove to me that will be his gameplan on every Sunday. You can't. If you're niave enough to think that a NFL head coach will give away what his offensive tendencies will be on Sundays, then that's just too bad.
     
  2. gimmesix

    gimmesix Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life

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    Yes, when you have a running threat, play-action should be a big part of your game.

    That's really what we should be caring about rather than whether McCarthy is an analytics fraud or not.

    The questions I want to see answered are:

    If we run on first down and gain 3 yards or fewer, does that pretty much automatically mean the next play is a pass?

    If we pass on first down and it's incomplete, does that pretty much automatically mean the next play is a run?

    Are we going to run between the tackles on 60-plus percent of first downs?

    I know there were exceptions to those rules under Garrett, but in most games, I could call whether the next play was going to be a run or a pass, and if I could do that, then defenses certainly could.

    I don't care if it's analytics-based or just good coaching, I want to see this offense be unpredictable. Think it's a handoff? No, it's play-action. This is passing down, right? No, it's a draw.
     
  3. garyo1954

    garyo1954 Well-Known Member

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    What do you mean you don't have that data? Aren't you supposed to have all this bookmarked, interpreted, ready in case for some silly reason somebody says, "Prove it?" Asking for a friend. :lmao:
     
  4. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    it is not just that, there are several other issues with these stats that I have discussed with Adam before that he has had no answer for

    these stats are collected without attention to time and context in game (ie 4th quarter or with lead or from behind or running out the clock etc), they are done with no correction for multiple analyses (which is a standard in large datasets) and with no sophisticated analysts like multiple logistic regression or C statistic which correct for biases

    this publicity available data is absolutely garbage in and garbage out which is why you never hear coaches or DCs say stupid stuff like @Toruk_Makto is spouting. All good HCs and DCs always say that their first priority is to stop the run.

    I’m sure NFL franchises have real data analytics that tell them the real FACTS

    I’m supposed to believe @Toruk_Makto instead of what a SB winning HC in the NFL is saying?

    as Clint Eastwood said: get off my lawn
     
    CowboyStar88 and garyo1954 like this.
  5. conner01

    conner01 Well-Known Member

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    I would sit on the couch and tell my son in law what was coming next
    You have to get every competitive advantage in today’s nfl and that comes by being unpredictable
     
  6. Toruk_Makto

    Toruk_Makto Well-Known Member

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    So when 24 of 28 qbs all point in the same direction regardless of rushing efficiency or attempts you simply close your eyes and ears.

    Here is the water. Can't make you drink.
     
  7. gimmesix

    gimmesix Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life

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    Right. I don't think what I was doing in predicting the plays was any different than every Cowboys fan was doing because we were so predictable. I absolutely hated it. I wanted to be wrong. I wanted to say, "This will be a run" and be surprised by a pass. Sometimes I was, but it rarely happened.
     
    conner01 likes this.
  8. bayeslife

    bayeslife 187beatdown

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    Doesn’t change the Superbowl he won either
     
  9. bayeslife

    bayeslife 187beatdown

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    So McCarthy has always called pass heavy in the first half to begin with. I don’t see what the problem is here except the crying from OP that he didn’t get the HC he wanted.
     
    visionary likes this.
  10. CowboysWillRise

    CowboysWillRise Well-Known Member

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    MM plans to have a staff of 12 (I think that was the number may have been 14) doing his analytics.

    I dont believe the point is how proficient he is, but more so that he is taking it seriously. What will be more important imo is his staff and the choices he does or doesnt make based on the information he receives.
     
    RoboQB likes this.
  11. Playmaker247

    Playmaker247 Well-Known Member

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  12. garyo1954

    garyo1954 Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Some stats may help you improve by pointing out things you need to work on, but they don't help in game planning. You need context to understand what those stats mean, how they can be applied to game situations. And some stats, completions, yards per carry, YAC mean very little since they will change game to game.
     
    visionary likes this.
  13. gimmesix

    gimmesix Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life

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    Right, analytics could be the wrong thing if it makes McCarthy develop tendencies. Hopefully, the purpose will be to keep us from having tendencies as much as it is to provide statistical data, to make McCarthy more aware, because most everyone develops predictable patterns if they are not self-aware enough to keep from it.
     
    CowboysWillRise likes this.
  14. THEHEREAFTER

    THEHEREAFTER Well-Known Member

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    Not even one week and our resident "experts" are already dogging McCarthy worse than Garrett. So predictable... hate the qb, owner, rb, linebackers. Just hate everything. .. :facepalm:
     
    lwehlers and garyo1954 like this.
  15. garyo1954

    garyo1954 Well-Known Member

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    I'm waiting for a FIRE MCCARTHY post any minute now!
     
    THEHEREAFTER likes this.
  16. PhillyCowboysFan

    PhillyCowboysFan Well-Known Member

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    Boy I read that same quote from Mike and can take a SLIGHTLY different meaning out of it. First let’s state that analytics is a tool to help formulate a decision. It is not the tell all. Analytics does not and in no way can take in account the quality of the players (offensive or defensive) and the execution of the plays. Example, teams in the early nineties did not need analytics but if used it would tell them that Dallas was going to run the ball right down your throats. They knew it and couldn’t do anything about because the Cowboys players was so much better then the other teams and the execution of the plays was formidable. Again it’s a tool used to help give an edge where possible.

    But let’s get back to Mike’s quote and the article mentioned. Yes he stated that you have to run the ball to have play action work effectively and the numbers show there wasn’t much difference if the team rushed ten times or upwards of twenty. Mike stated you had to run the ball, he never stated how many times but just that you had to try. So I am going to assume that you assume he is referring to a large amount.

    Now let’s get to the second part of his quote that I think you are trying to call him out on. He stated that “when you are able to run the ball effectively, there is an opportunity to get more chunk plays”. The article was referencing passer rating on whether there were a few attempts or many, it never touched on large gaining plays. With that said my interpretation was that Mike believes through his analytics that when the run game is effective, there is a much better chance for a big gain play.

    Without being able to question him and dig into his theory more, it’s not fair to label him a fraud.


    Last note: If you research my posts going back several months to a year, you will find several that state I have a upper managerial position in one of the largest analytical firms in the country.

    just saying!
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2020
  17. Frozen700

    Frozen700 Well-Known Member

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    Crazy right?

    #DontpayDak
     
    Captain-Crash likes this.
  18. Bluestang

    Bluestang Well-Known Member

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    Very well said. I was just about to post something very similar because GB's bread n butter chunk play under McCarthy was the PA double move/deep pass to Jordy Nelson.

    Anyhow, this whole thread is complete non-sense and really is a good case study into how fickle this fanbase has become.

    Imagine hiring a HC with SB pedigree and then subsequently calling him a fraud based on a 20 sec answer to an interview question he gave less than a week on the job.
     
  19. PhillyCowboysFan

    PhillyCowboysFan Well-Known Member

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    Let alone being called a fraud by a “banker”. SMGDH!
     
    CowboyStar88, RoboQB and garyo1954 like this.
  20. RoboQB

    RoboQB Well-Known Member

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    True, but it is slightly amusing to read along as Fuzzy swats this guy around.

    A domestic cat is the most ruthless killer in the world.
    It will kill for fun. Give'em all the cat food you can.
    They will still kill for sport and the enjoyment of watching their prey die.

    That is my visual. Fuzzy is the 20lb tabby cat that will make a bug suffer a
    painful death... because he can.
    Die bug, die... lol (metaphorical, of course... smh)
     
    Luther and brooksey1 like this.

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