MMQB: How Cowboys’ Dak Prescott Can Benefit From Waiting to Negotiate His Contract

[bsbellomy]

Right but you said who would choose 2 million over 30+. In 2018 he's getting that 2 million regardless so its not either or.

Ok so it's between 2mil and what like 75m guarantee (as of right now)?

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They didn't pay for the Brandon Carr's of the world because they didn't have the money to do it lol. They just tried to break the bank for Sammy Watkins just a year ago. That deal would've KILLED this team. Cowboys are just being frugal and cheap on certain guys like Allen Hurns and Randall Cobb. Make no mistake if a guy is young like a Sammy Watkins they would've threw their money at him. Chiefs saved the Cowboys from themselves with that one.

They got outbid. They had a hard limit and wouldn't go over it. That is obviously a different approach. Obviously if they would have paid what the Chiefs did it would be problematic.

That is also the only potential deal of that nature in the past 6 years whereas before it was every other year or more.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

They got outbid. They had a hard limit and wouldn't go over it. That is obviously a different approach. Obviously if they would have paid what the Chiefs did it would be problematic.

That is also the only potential deal of that nature in the past 6 years whereas before it was every other year or more.

They tried to give Sammy 16 million per....that’s wayyyyyyyyy over market value for what he gives you. They got outbid but didn’t even know. Just like Asomugha they thought they had Watkins.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Ok so it's between 2mil and what like 75m guarantee (as of right now)?

It’s not though lol. So you think Dak will never in his career get guaranteed money?

 

[Boom]

Dak holding off should increase the probability of signing Zeke. I think Dak sees this team doing big things this year and is willing to risk injury for an increased contract next year.

 

[aikemirv]

Honestly Zeke and Dak need new agents. Ones with common sense and not ones who feed their ego.

 

[Stash]

I'm not certain that waiting automatically makes the contract bigger.

The Franchise Tag for QBs was 24.8M in 2019. It will be about 27.75 in 2020.

Dak is taking a stupid risk by not signing a contract now.

If he had a career ending injury in 2019, he would have made about 4M in his career.

A new contract will immediately guarantee him tens of millions.

The life impact of 4M vs 40M is far greater than the life impact of 40M vs 100M.

Just doing some quick math here:

I can pay him $2 million for 2019.

Tag him at $28 million for 2020.

Tag him again at let's say $35 million for 2021.

So I would have him for the next three years for a total cost of $65 million. An average of less than $22 million a year.

Why the heck would I want to sign him to a long term contract paying him in excess of $30 million a year?

 

[atlantacowboy]

Just doing some quick math here:

I can pay him $2 million for 2019.

Tag him at $28 million for 2020.

Tag him again at let's say $35 million for 2021.

So I would have him for the next three years for a total cost of $65 million. An average of less than $22 million a year.

Why the heck would I want to sign him to a long term contract paying him in excess of $30 million a year?

Well, he's got his brother on twitter..............

 

[aikemirv]

What kinds of moron turns down 30M to play for 2M? Even if you get 34M for 6 years and you get all of it you still don't recoup the 28M you lost.

It is absolutely mindboggling - I don't know what is wrong with these agents!

From Jerry's perspective, and Jerry actually gets this.

If he has to pay him an average of 35-40 million next year versus 30 million this year, he will take the time value on that 28 million this year and invest it and come out ahead in the end!

 

[Flamma]

Dak might benefit by playing the waiting game. He also might shoot himself in the foot. Getting paid sooner than later removes risk. And that costs money because risk gets compensated. If the Cowboys are prepared to take the risk off of his hands it should only be at a team friendly cost.

The risk is if Zeke doesn't play and Dak struggles as a result. I'm pretty sure Dak will be fine as long as the OL is healthy. But it would be interesting to see what happens.

 

[xwalker]

Just doing some quick math here:

I can pay him $2 million for 2019.

Tag him at $28 million for 2020.

Tag him again at let's say $35 million for 2021.

So I would have him for the next three years for a total cost of $65 million. An average of less than $22 million a year.

Why the heck would I want to sign him to a long term contract paying him in excess of $30 million a year?

They'll get 2019 for 2M even with a new contract.

The Jaylon contract is:
Original Contract 2019
1st round tender amount 2020
New 5 year contract starting in 2021.

The 12.75M average announced was for the 5 years. The average would be lower if all years are considered.

The structure does not "look" exactly as described because they pay the signing bonus when the contract is signed; however, the numbers come out as described above.

That's how most contracts are done now when players have a year or years remaining at the time they sign the new contract.

The agents like being able to "advertise" the higher average and teams are not going to give away the remaining years of the low cost rookie contract just because the contract was signed early.

Generally teams only want to re-sign players early if they can get a more team friendly deal; otherwise they would all wait until the contracts have finished.

Side Note: It appears that in March teams can use the Franchise Tag on 1 player and a transition Tag on another because it's in the CBA as an option for the final year of the CBA agreement which is 2020.

It would still be beneficial to the team to Franchise for 2020 & 2021 at 28M and 35M for a 31.5M average but zero risk.

Dak would holdout if Franchised, especially the 2nd time but the threat of the Tag is how teams keep the agents for QBs from requesting 95% of the cap space instead of the 18% they're already requesting.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

They tried to give Sammy 16 million per....that’s wayyyyyyyyy over market value for what he gives you. They got outbid but didn’t even know. Just like Asomugha they thought they had Watkins.

He got $16m AAV. How did we get outbid by what he got?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/sammy-watkins-14413/

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

He got $16m AAV. How did we get outbid by what he got?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/sammy-watkins-14413/

I don’t know the particulars on the contract but Sammy chose KC over Dallas is my point. You made it sound like Cowboys didn’t want to overpay him and they would’ve.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

I don’t know the particulars on the contract but Sammy chose KC over Dallas is my point. You made it sound like Cowboys didn’t want to overpay him and they would’ve.

Yeah because we got outbid. We didn't want to pay $16mm.

 

[csirl]

Our coaching staff are both on the hotseat and out of contract at the end of the season. Where vacancies arose this past offseason, they were filled by young guys on cheap short term deals.

At this point in time we do not know who will be coaching the Cowboys in 2020. Until this question is answered, there is no point in signing any QB to a long term deal.

In the absence of any other evidence - we must assume that the front office is taking the sensible option - waiting for the coaching situation to be sorted (whether its a new coach or JG to a new deal).

I think all this publicity re Daks contract is agent driven. It makes sense for him to get signed asap as a new HC may prefer other QB options.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Right but you said who would choose 2 million over 30+. In 2018 he's getting that 2 million regardless so its not either or.

This isn't true. If he signed a new deal, he could get his signing bonus money early and pocket that. If he signs later, yeah he will get paid but he will not get more then that 2.8 mil this year and, he will have wasted another year of his prime, in terms of capturing the maximum revenue potential. Any way you slice it, his earning potential is effected to the tune of something like 27 mil on a 30 year annual deal. This is in terms of real money in your pocket. You can say that he would get that money either way but it doesn't work that way in terms of a career. You have so many years and every one you let slide by, without maximizing your earning potential is a loss. You never ever get those years back.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

This isn't true. If he signed a new deal, he could get his signing bonus money early and pocket that. If he signs later, yeah he will get paid but he will not get more then that 2.8 mil this year and, he will have wasted another year of his prime, in terms of capturing the maximum revenue potential. Any way you slice it, his earning potential is effected to the tune of something like 27 mil on a 30 year annual deal. This is in terms of real money in your pocket. You can say that he would get that money either way but it doesn't work that way in terms of a career. You have so many years and every one you let slide by, without maximizing your earning potential is a loss. You never ever get those years back.

You’re losing me. I’m saying he’s getting 2 million he’s owed regardless.

 

[TheMarathonContinues]

Yeah because we got outbid. We didn't want to pay $16mm.

Reports were money wasn’t why he chose Kc over Dallas which indicates money was around the same.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

You’re losing me. I’m saying he’s getting 2 million he’s owed regardless.

You said, "Right but you said who would choose 2 million over 30+. In 2018 he's getting that 2 million regardless so its not either or."

That's not entirely true, if he signs a new deal. If he signs a new deal now, he gets 2.8 plus whatever else is included in the new deal. That constitutes more money in his pocket earlier. In effect, if he continues to play on his existing deal, he hurts himself because he has played a season, in his prime years, significantly below value. He would not be maximizing his earning potential and because you only have so many years, he essentially loses out on that money. Yes, he will be making 2.8 but it doesn't have to be only 2.8, it could be significantly more then that. That is all I was trying to explain.

 

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Reports were money wasn’t why he chose Kc over Dallas which indicates money was around the same.

What reports? The spin job put out by the club after the fact?