vicjagger
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NFL playoff matchups: predictions, outlooks, more
NFC
Washington at Seattle
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, NBC
Players to watch
Commanders
Until early December, when young quarterback Jason Campbell dislocated a kneecap, backup Todd Collins hadn’t played an important down in the NFL since 1997. But the veteran backup has led the Commanders into the playoffs, beating some pretty good teams along the way, including the Giants and the Cowboys. He’s got a big-play wideout, Santana Moss, to throw to, but his best target is tight end Chris Cooley, who’s making his first trip to the Pro Bowl this season. Running back Clinton Portis is one of the league’s better backs and is capable of controlling a game. Defensively, the Commanders are still coping with the death of All-Pro corner Sean Taylor. Fred Smoot is a tough defender at the other corner. Middle linebacker London Fletcher is the big run-stopper and leading tackler. End Andre Carter leads a decent but not overwhelming pass rush.
Seahawks
The Seahawks will go as far as quarterback Matt Hasselbeck takes them. In prior years, they relied on running back Shaun Alexander, who has been a disappointment since signing a big contract after the 2006 season, but he’s still a force who has to figure into every defensive game plan. Hasselbeck spreads the ball around to a receiving corps led by Bobby Engram, who had nearly 100 catches on the season. On defense, middle linebacker Lofa Tatupu is a great all-around player who can control a game. The Hawks also have one of the best pass rushes in the game, led by outside linebacker Julian Peterson and end Patrick Kerney. Corner Marcus Trufant, who had seven interceptions, will be called on to shut down Moss.
The Commanders win if
Washington has a shot in this game if Portis has a big game – 120 yards or more – rushing, which will open up the field for Collins, who has made few mistakes since taking over for Campbell. But that won’t be enough if they don’t win the turnover battle; they were minus-5 in that department this season, while the Seahawks were plus-10. If the Commanders can force two more turnovers than they commit and establish the run, they can win this thing.
The Seahawks win if
Seattle goes in as a substantial favorite, and with good reason. They have to keep Portis under 100 yards and unleash their pass rush on Collins – say four or five sacks on the day. If they can do that, Hasselbeck will do enough offensively to win this game.
The Commanders lose if
This one’s easy: Fail to take care of the ball and it’s one-and-done for the Commanders. Collins has been great at throwing to the right jerseys so far, but if he gets that deer-in-the-headlights look under the pressure of the playoffs and the incredible noise in the Seahawks home field, this one could be over by halftime.
The Seahawks lose if
Washington comes in with the fewest expectations – and the least pressure – of any team in the NFC. Quite frankly, they weren’t supposed to be here. Seattle is favored, but if the Seahawks think this is going to be easy and don’t bring their A game, they’re going to be sadly disappointed.
Prediction
Washington is in the bottom half of the league offensively and not a whole lot better defensively. They’ve got a quarterback who was a non-entity for 10 years and for much of the season were a non-factor, racing into the playoffs with four victories down the stretch and a lot of help from the Vikings and Saints, who couldn’t win when they had to. Seattle, on the other hand, cruised to a division title in the NFC West, one of the weakest divisions in the NFL. They look better on paper, but look who they’ve had to beat. Plus, Seattle is very one-dimensional offensively; if they can’t pass, they can’t win. I’m thinking I’ll regret this, but I’m making this my upset special and calling a Commanders win, with Portis and Collins having big games: Commanders 31, Seahawks 27.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay
Time: 1 p.m. ET, Sunday, Fox
Players to watch
Giants
It’s all about quarterback Eli Manning, who has been at times brilliant and at times awful during his three seasons at the controls. Playing in Tampa should be good for Manning, a warm-climate passer who has not performed well in bad weather at his home stadium. He has two outstanding wideouts in Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress, who finally seems recovered from a leg injury that kept him from practicing for all but the final week of the season. Brandon Jacobs is a monster running back who’s going to have to pick up crucial short yards to keep drives moving. Defensively, the Giants live on the NFL’s best pass rush, led by ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora.
Buccaneers
Tampa Bay doesn’t bring a lot of big-name recognition to the game. Quarterback Jeff Garcia was one of the league’s stars in 2000-2002 with the 49ers, but San Francisco dumped him after the 2003 season and in the four years since, he’s been with four different teams. But Garcia is an efficient passer and a savvy leader. He’s got two excellent veteran wide receivers in Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway. Earnest Graham, a compact ball of muscle, started the season as the third-string running back but has been elevated to starter by injuries. Graham is also a capable receiver. The Bucs rely on their defense, led by two outstanding linebackers – Barrett Rudd and Derrick Brooks – and cornerback Ronde Barber, twin brother of former Giants’ star running back Tiki. But they’ve got just 32 sacks on the season, and they’re going to have to find a way to crank up that pass rush against Manning.
The Giants win if:
Stuff the ground game and force Garcia to pass, then put him on his back early and often. Offensively, they’ve got to establish enough of a ground game to take the pressure off Manning to make all the plays himself. If they can do that, they should advance.
The Bucs win if:
Tampa will be looking to do the same things New York will be trying to do. The Bucs want to put the pressure on Manning, so they’ll try to take Jacobs out of the game early. Offensively, they need to keep the Giants' pass rush off Garcia. If they can keep his uniform clean, he has the ability to pick a team apart and take the Bucs to the next round.
The Giants lose if:
Manning can't play mechanically, as he sometimes does in pressure situations. If he stops reacting and starts thinking, he’ll become indecisive and make bad throws. If he throws three interceptions, it won’t matter what the rest of the team does; the Giants will lose.
The Bucs lose if:
Tampa has to protect Garcia. If the offensive line lets the Giants tee off on him, there’s a good chance he’ll be knocked out of the game. If he’s not knocked out, he can be forced into bad throws, as is the case with any quarterback. But if the Bucs don’t slow down that pass rush, they will lose the game.
Prediction:
The Bucs were the least heralded of all the playoff teams, making the postseason early in December and sleep-walking to the finish line, losing three of their final four games while coach Jon Gruden rested his starters. They’re old at quarterback and wide receiver, and they don’t do a good job of rushing the passer. As noted above, Manning is more likely to play well in the balmy weather of Tampa than in the howling winds of the Meadowlands. Coming off their near-victory over the Patriots, the Giants have a lot of confidence, while the Bucs will be trying to re-start a team that has basically been shut down for three weeks. The Giants should prevail in a low-scoring contest. Giants 24, Bucs 13.
AFC
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
Time: 8 p.m. ET, Saturday, NBC
Players to watch
Jaguars
Running back Fred Taylor had never gotten the props as one of the league’s top backs, but this year he opened a lot of eyes with five straight 100-yard games down the stretch and three TD runs of 50 yards or more, including an 80-yarder against Carolina. As Taylor goes, so go the Jags. The quarterback is the unheralded David Garrard, who’s quietly put up a 102 quarterback rating with 18 touchdowns and just three interceptions. If you’re unfamiliar with Garrard, you’ll really be at a loss with his receivers, none of whom had 50 catches on the year. Reggie Williams, who had 10 receiving TDs, is the deep threat. They’re solid defensively, especially against the run, with strong safety Sammy Knight leading the team in tackles and standing second in interceptions. Free safety Reggie Nelson leads in interceptions and is third in tackles behind middle linebacker Mike Peterson. End Paul Spicer leads the pass rush with eight sacks.
Steelers
Running back Willie Parker, one of the Steelers biggest weapons, is down for the duration, so all eyes will be on backup Najeh Davenport, who does not have Parker’s explosiveness, but does run with power. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger became a star when he won the Super Bowl in his second season, but he’s still finding that he has to prove himself in a pass-first offense. Hines Ward is a premier wideout and Heath Miller is one of the league’s top tight ends. The Steelers aren’ the same smash-mouth defensive unit they once were, but safety Troy Polamalu remains a versatile force. Corner Ike Taylor is tough against the run and the pass. In the Steelers defensive scheme, the linebackers are key, and James Harrison, James Farrior and Larry Foote will be big in trying to stop Fred Taylor. Safety Ike Taylor is also a big run-stopper.
The Jaguars win if:
The Jags don’t come at you with many tricks. They’re going to pound Taylor at you, and if he gets off big — say 140 yards — they’ll control the game and the outcome. Defensively, if they can force Roethlisberger to win the game — and the weather’s bad at Hines Field — they should win.
The Steelers win if:
It’s pretty simple here — stop Fred Taylor. That means hold him to 80 yards or less. If the Steelers do that, odds are big they’ll win this one.
The Jaguars lose if:
Jacksonville is a ball-control team that needs to dominate time-of-possession. If they don’t have at least a four-minute advantage in that department, it will mean they haven’t done the things they need to do to win.
The Steelers lose if:
Pittsburgh has always been a grind-it-out team, but that’s changed this year, especially with the loss of Parker at running back. They’ve relied more on Roethlisberger and the passing game, so much so now that they need decent weather to play that game. If it turns nasty with snow or freezing rain and wind on game day, they won’t win.
Prediction:
This has the makings of the game of the weekend, a clash between two teams that hit hard and try to pound their opponents into submission. The two teams met back on Dec. 16, with the Jags winning by a touchdown, 29-22 in Pittsburgh as Taylor had a big day rushing. The Steelers will throw everything they have into trying to stop Taylor this time around, but they haven’t been playing well in the second half, and they’ve had troubles tackling all year. I think this will be a repeat of their earlier meeting, with Jacksonville controlling the ball and the game. Jaguars 24, Steelers 18.
Tennessee at San Diego
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, CBS
Players to watch
Titans
Second-year quarterback Vince Young is the key player on offense. He’s big and strong and a powerful runner who can create on the fly and drive defenses to distraction. What he doesn’t do is pass for huge numbers — just 170 yards per game with only nine touchdowns to go against 17 interceptions, a frighteningly bad ratio. LenDale White is a powerful and reliable running back, but he averages fewer than four yards a carry. Roydell Williams leads the receivers with just 49 catches and just four touchdowns. Defensively, rookie safety Michael Griffin is a big hitter who must play under control. Linebacker David Thornton is by far the leading tackler on a unit that was fifth-stingiest in the league in yielding yardage. Kyle Vanden Bosch is a dangerous pass rusher.
Chargers
This is LaDainian Tomlinson’s team, for the second consecutive year the NFL's leading rusher. Everything else revolves around him, and as he goes, so go the Chargers. Quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown for 21 touchdowns, but has also thrown the ball away 15 times and fumbled it away five other times. Despite that, the Chargers also lead the league in turnover margin at +24. Antonio Gates is as good a tight end as you’ll find and a clutch possession receiver. The team has an impressive 30 interceptions — nearly two a game — with corner Antonio Cromartie leading the way with 10. Shawne Merriman is one of the premier linebackers in the game and has contributed 12 sacks to a team total of 42. Kicker Nate Kaeding has missed just three attempts all year; just one from inside 40 yards.
The Titans win if:
This is a tough one because it’s going to take something close to a miracle for Tennessee to pull this one out. That said, they came close to doing it in early December when they lost in overtime to the Chargers on a 16-yard run by Tomlinson. So it can be done, and they already know how. Contain Tomlinson, which they didn’t do in overtime, and get three turnovers out of Rivers. If they don’t turn it over themselves, the Titans could pull the upset of the first round.
The Chargers win if:
There’s the obvious stuff like Tomlinson controlling the ball and the game with a big rushing day. But it really comes down to Rivers taking care of the ball. If he doesn’t turn it over and if everyone else on both sides of the ball has their normal game, the Chargers will win.
The Titans lose if:
Young can do amazing things, but he’s not mature enough yet to win this game on his own. So the Titans have to get a big contribution from White and the ground game. They also have to get help from the defense and special teams. If they don’t get at least 10 points from those two phases of the game, they’re going home.
The Chargers lose if:
San Diego’s recipe for doom is remarkably like Tennessee’s. The Chargers have to establish Tomlinson and get major yards out of him. Rivers simply can not be relied on to win a game if he’s got no help from the running attack. If they don’t run, they won’t win.
Prediction: Although their regular-season game went to overtime, the Titans gave up a 14-point lead to put it there, then were unable to stop Tomlinson. And that game was in Nashville. Young is capable of major heroics, but I don’t expect him to produce them against the ball—hawking Chargers’ defense. San Diego will stop the run and force Young into mistakes. If the Chargers get a score from their defense, the game will be over. In San Diego, I don’t see how the Titans can win this one. Chargers 27, Titans 10.
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22445349/
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