theogt said:
I hope you don't gamble. Have you ever heard of being "results oriented" in a predictions market?
Why don't we just get to the point.
Every year, someone falls, someone becomes available that wasn't supposed to be available. Sure, just bec. it happens every year, doesn't necessarily mean it will happen again this year. They are independent events. But, if you are a gambling man, history would suggest someone will fall down the boards in the first round.
That's where the speculation begins. From the minute the first team doesn't take the player "most experts" think they will, it causes a "slide" of players, or a perceived slide in the eyes (bec. maybe, the GM's think differently of a player than the masses do).
Last year's classic example was Aaron Rodger.
The year before, Stephen Jackson and somewhat Kevin Jones.
This year, it could very well be Manny. Or Bobby. Or Kamerion. Or someone else entirely different (as in position).
I think we can agree that Lawson is better suited for OLB in a 3-4. Whether or not you want to argue SOLB vs WOLB right now is irrelevant to the matter.
Cleveland at 12 is the first 3-4 team that could take him (well, within reason).
Depending on if Ngata is available or Bunkley, who they are also high on, they could go OLB. Wimbley, Carpenter, and Lawson - one could go here.
Then, it heads to us. There is the potential (if Cleveland goes with Ngata or Bunkley) that all three could be available to us.)
In the Vikings scheme, Sims, Ryans, Greenway all fit better than any of the LB's we are looking at.
Miami could be looking at a backer, but Saban likes DB's and one could very well be picked up there.
Denver seems a likely destination for a WR. Ravens switched from the 3-4. With Pryce and Suggs at Ends, they have no need for Lawson or Wimbley. Carpenter; maybe. But they too, could look at DT if its available, or OT
Which means, at 18, we may have the strong probability of having both Lawson and Carpenter.
Chargers could potentially use a LB. But their secondary seems to be a much more pressing need.
Chiefs could also go with a corner, since they cut Warfield and McCleon. Otherwise, WR is a possibility.
New England seems likely to be the first team after us to go LB, with San Fran right behind them. However, DeAngelo might be too tempting for NE to pass up on. If we want our choice, we could trade down two spots.
We could recoup our 4th by trading down with KC. KC might do this if they want a WR/CB and are afraid San Diego will take who they want ahead of them.
Otherwise, we have to trade down to 22/23 to gain a 3rd.
You can say you think he'll drop, but rest assured that you're in an extreme minority.
