New passer rating needed

[burmafrd]

the current one was developed in the 70's and gives too much credit to the short passing game of the WCO, which had not been developed back then.

Completion % should be downgraded; credit for TD's and INT's should be equal; YPA needs to be emphasized; and sacks and yds loss to sacks should be weighed as well. But most of all 3rd down conversions need to be brought in- THAT is where you can tell the most about a QB.

 

[Future]

i think the length of passes should be included. there is a difference between drew brees throwing a 3 yard pass to reggie bush, and him running 60 yards and romo throwing a 50 yard TD pass.

 

[DanTanna]

Or David Carr/Couch throwing 22 consecutive completions and 4 of them lost yards!

I agree.

:starspin :starspin :starspin :starspin :starspin

 

[JD_KaPow]

the current one was developed in the 70's and gives too much credit to the short passing game of the WCO, which had not been developed back then.

Completion % should be downgraded; credit for TD's and INT's should be equal; YPA needs to be emphasized; and sacks and yds loss to sacks should be weighed as well. But most of all 3rd down conversions need to be brought in- THAT is where you can tell the most about a QB.

The passer rating is a sort of ok measure, but it's true that the weightings are all messed up and the situation is entirely unaccounted for. I suggest you look at Football Outsiders for their DPAR and DVOA work. It's the best thing out there for rating players, largely because it's based on play-by-play information, rather than game totals. Of course, like any measure, it can't really distinguish an individual's performance from the players around him (O-Line, quality of receivers, etc.).

For the record, by their measure, Romo comes in as the 2nd-best QB in the NFL on a per-passing-play basis. He's ninth in total contribution, which is impressive, given that he's only started a bit over half the season.

 

[burmafrd]

Could subtract YAC from ydg.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Could subtract YAC from ydg.

But that's not right either. Quarterbacks differ hugely in their ability to (a) hit receivers in stride and (b) find the guy who can get YAC vs. the guy who'll get hit the moment he catches the ball.

 

[burmafrd]

YAC is mostly due to where the pass is thrown and how good the WR is after the catch. Its fair to count only the yds the pass traveled. That rewards the long passes and penalizes the short passes.

 

[burmafrd]

And this is all about measuring ability- so a QB that can land a pass in stride to a WR 50 yds down field SHOULD get credit for that.

 

[ravidubey]

i think the length of passes should be included. there is a difference between drew brees throwing a 3 yard pass to reggie bush, and him running 60 yards and romo throwing a 50 yard TD pass.

Thing is what you are talking about also reflects accuracy of a different kind and that's ball placement. If you throw a pass that points a receiver into a part of the field where there are no defenders he can begin running immediately and it can be the difference between YAC or no YAC. That's the whole point of those WCO short passes, not to make the short completion but to maximize YAC. I would leave YPA the way it is.

You could add yards in the air per pass, but what does it really mean? This is why it is so difficult to capture good play using statistics.

 

[JD_KaPow]

YAC is mostly due to where the pass is thrown and how good the WR is after the catch. Its fair to count only the yds the pass traveled. That rewards the long passes and penalizes the short passes.

"Where the pass is thrown". Exactly. When the receiver runs a quick slant, the QB who hits him in the hands in stride, letting him run 50 more yards, is better than the QB who makes him go to the ground to catch the ball.

 

[ravidubey]

And this is all about measuring ability- so a QB that can land a pass in stride to a WR 50 yds down field SHOULD get credit for that.

I want to agree, but if you could achieve the same result on an 18 yard skinny post that had to be finely threaded and lead the WR in the perfect direction why not reward that equally? It's all captured in YPA.

Of course you could grade completion percentage on a sliding scale. Credit short completions lower and credit long completions higher. You could also reverse the scale for incomplete throws. You'd always grade completions in the redzone higher than others.

What I think would help is penalizing "bad" interceptions; those thrown on redzone possessions and those that give the other team possession on your side of the field.

 

[AbeBeta]

You will never get a great statistical measure here. QB play is too much about judgement.

For example, Romo the TD to Owens on a poorly thrown ball that the CB bobbled into his hands yields the same statistical credit as the great 50+ yard TD toss Saturday.

This measure is decent -- the only real problem I have with it is that end of half ints on hail mary plays shouldn't count -- and ints that lead to points should count as doubly bad

 

[Future]

"Where the pass is thrown". Exactly. When the receiver runs a quick slant, the QB who hits him in the hands in stride, letting him run 50 more yards, is better than the QB who makes him go to the ground to catch the ball.

Well what about the QB who throws an average pass that the receiver makes a good play on who breaks a tackle and then runs 50 yards. Should they be counted equally?

 

[Twyst]

The only QB rating I really care about is wins and losses to be honest.

 

[percyhoward]

"Where the pass is thrown". Exactly. When the receiver runs a quick slant, the QB who hits him in the hands in stride, letting him run 50 more yards, is better than the QB who makes him go to the ground to catch the ball.

While that's true, it's fair to say the majority of YAC comes not from that, but from having receivers who are great in the open field. Here's an example...

Using the theory that the best ball-placement QB will get the most YAC, Peyton Manning should be very high in YAC yards. He's 14th. Manning's % of total yards that are YAC is the same as Romo's, in fact. (Yet another remarkable thing about Romo, btw. He isn't getting much help from YAC, because we seldom throw to RB's)

Which QB leads the league in YAC? Drew Brees, who happens to lead the league in passes to RB's, and who has Reggie Bush.

QB YAC link

 

[burmafrd]

No method is going to be perfect; so you have to come down on the side that most nearly does. That is why YAC should be deducted from yds. It would reward long passes and penalize short passes; and lets face it long passes are much harder to complete. I guess we should really have two standards; WCO QB's and others.