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NFL's 4 new playoff teams for 2016: Cowboys top list of likely candidates
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...r-2016-cowboys-top-list-of-likely-candidates/
...Dallas Cowboys
2015 Record: 4-12
2016 Over/Under: 9.5
Overview: The Cowboys of 2014 set the bar high, winning 12 games and establishing a devastating rushing attack built on DeMarco Murray running behind the best line in football. Dallas let Murray walk in free agency and watched both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant spend the 2015 season being injured, while Greg Hardy drew the public eye on a bad Cowboys football team. The Cowboys were still borderline close to winning the division anyway: an ugly win on "Monday Night Football" in early December had them in the playoff hunt. They wouldn't win another game.
Why they'll make the playoffs: You don't get much less lucky than the Cowboys in 2015. Their best players all got hurt and they went 2-6 in one-score games, including a pair of overtime losses to the Saints and Eagles. Their luck should regress to the norm, although it's worth noting their Expected Win-Loss (explained here, essentially utilizing points for and points allowed to generate an expected record for a team) was 5.2.
Like most teams, their season hinges on the health of their quarterback. An injured Romo will cause major issues. The running game should return to form though. Darren McFadden averaged 4.6 yards per carry behind a Dallas line with multiple Pro Bowl players (Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, Travis Frederick). The addition of Ezekiel Elliott in the draft gives Dallas a legitimate bell-cow back who is also an underrated receiver and a tremendous pass blocker (a trait that should help Romo's health). Dez Bryant is a top-five wideout in the game -- his injury, a Jones fracture in his foot, is concerning, but Julio Jones suffered the same injury in 2013 and returned the following year to post a 1,593-yard season.
If everyone stays healthy and Elliott meets expectations this is top-five NFL offense that can run roughshod through a questionable division. Dallas' offense being better this year than in 2014 isn't out of the question.
If Tony Romo and Dez Bryant can stay healthy, watch out. USATSI
Why they won't make the playoffs: On the other hand, the defense probably won't be better. DeMarcus Lawrence is facing a four-game suspension. So is second-year pass rusher Randy Gregory, who has a history with off-field issues. Rolando McClain will miss 10 games as a result of a suspension. Hardy is gone. Jaylon Smith was a second-round pick and might be a great player but isn't expected to have an impact this season. Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr remain prominent members of the secondary after failing to live up to their respective hype. Rod Marinelli is a great coach but he's really got his work cut out for him. Romo is pretty old -- the long-time Cowboy turned 36 in April and despite what he thinks, he has a history of suffering injuries. It's absolutely possible Romo gets hurt again, the defense is terrible and Elliott struggles to adjust, while neither Kellen Moore or Dak Prescott is capable of leading this team to an above-.500 record...
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/n...r-2016-cowboys-top-list-of-likely-candidates/
...Dallas Cowboys
2015 Record: 4-12
2016 Over/Under: 9.5
Overview: The Cowboys of 2014 set the bar high, winning 12 games and establishing a devastating rushing attack built on DeMarco Murray running behind the best line in football. Dallas let Murray walk in free agency and watched both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant spend the 2015 season being injured, while Greg Hardy drew the public eye on a bad Cowboys football team. The Cowboys were still borderline close to winning the division anyway: an ugly win on "Monday Night Football" in early December had them in the playoff hunt. They wouldn't win another game.
Why they'll make the playoffs: You don't get much less lucky than the Cowboys in 2015. Their best players all got hurt and they went 2-6 in one-score games, including a pair of overtime losses to the Saints and Eagles. Their luck should regress to the norm, although it's worth noting their Expected Win-Loss (explained here, essentially utilizing points for and points allowed to generate an expected record for a team) was 5.2.
Like most teams, their season hinges on the health of their quarterback. An injured Romo will cause major issues. The running game should return to form though. Darren McFadden averaged 4.6 yards per carry behind a Dallas line with multiple Pro Bowl players (Tyron Smith, Zach Martin, Travis Frederick). The addition of Ezekiel Elliott in the draft gives Dallas a legitimate bell-cow back who is also an underrated receiver and a tremendous pass blocker (a trait that should help Romo's health). Dez Bryant is a top-five wideout in the game -- his injury, a Jones fracture in his foot, is concerning, but Julio Jones suffered the same injury in 2013 and returned the following year to post a 1,593-yard season.
If everyone stays healthy and Elliott meets expectations this is top-five NFL offense that can run roughshod through a questionable division. Dallas' offense being better this year than in 2014 isn't out of the question.
Why they won't make the playoffs: On the other hand, the defense probably won't be better. DeMarcus Lawrence is facing a four-game suspension. So is second-year pass rusher Randy Gregory, who has a history with off-field issues. Rolando McClain will miss 10 games as a result of a suspension. Hardy is gone. Jaylon Smith was a second-round pick and might be a great player but isn't expected to have an impact this season. Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr remain prominent members of the secondary after failing to live up to their respective hype. Rod Marinelli is a great coach but he's really got his work cut out for him. Romo is pretty old -- the long-time Cowboy turned 36 in April and despite what he thinks, he has a history of suffering injuries. It's absolutely possible Romo gets hurt again, the defense is terrible and Elliott struggles to adjust, while neither Kellen Moore or Dak Prescott is capable of leading this team to an above-.500 record...
