Percentage of salary cap by SB winning QB’s

[Adreme]

Making the playoffs? That's your goal? Why isn't your goal making the super bowl?

I think you've talked in circles so much you've made yourself dizzy!!!!!!!!!!!!

The data pool that you keep ignoring is how many extra players you can buy w/ the money saved from not overpaying one position. The data is that overpaying a position or two can keep you from a super bowl. It's like, you simply ignore anything that doesn't fit your agenda!!!!!

The megadeal QB's are not playing in super bowls. When the QB gets his megadeal, the team then is forced to let go some top players. Those top players are usually the difference between playing in the super bowl and an earlier exit.

You're screaming that what a team pays a QB doesn't matter w/ absolutely no facts to support it.

There is not enough data to claim paying a QB hinders that teams ability to win a championship. There is not. If you think there is, you either do not know statistics or you have an agenda to push. Period. 4-6 with repeats is not a statistically significant sample size. If you believe that you are arguing with Math and Math does not get swayed by emotion.

The ONLY thing we have data to judge is whether paying a franchise QB assists you in making the playoffs and possibly the divisional round (though thats somewhat of a stretch of data a forgivable one). The data shows, in this regard that having a QB does help.

If I were going to use an argument outside of statistics and pick a specific team to pose a theory around, sort of flying in the face of the proposed purpose of the thread but whatever, I would look at the 49ers as a case study on whether its the high picks or the salary cap that help you go that extra mile. The 49ers did not draft a QB BUT they had the advantage of being the position most teams that draft one were in, and that is that they had the high draft picks to load up on talent that usually exists around a young QB. As a sidenote their QB is not very good, which sort of helps to prove to the point. He is getting paid like a franchise QB with a big cap hit, but is worse than most of the others of that level. HOWEVER, what they do have is a boatload of high draft pick talent that usually you only have access to before you get a franchise QB (because once you draft one you do not get to pick that high for a long long time).

 

[buybuydandavis]

I know the salary cap has increased every year but does anyone know the percentage of salary cap Dak would use if we sign him to a 30mil, 35mil, or a 40mil per season contract?

I’m not a cap or salary guru like some here so I honestly don’t know. But if it’s more than say 13%-15%, then history does not bode well.


94 - Young - 13.10%
95 - Aikman - 6.70%
96 - Favre - 10.20%
97 - Elway - 5.20%
98 - Elway - 5.00%
99 - Warner - 1.30%
00 - Dilfer - 1.60%
01- Brady - .47%
02 - Johnson - 9.60%
03 - Brady - 4.40%
04 - Brady - 6.30%
05 - Roethlisberger - 4.90%
06 - P. Manning - 10.40%
07 - E. Manning - 9.20%
08 - Roethlisberger - 6.80%
09 - Brees - 8.30%
11 - E. Manning - 11.70%
12 - Flacco - 6.60%
13 - Wilson - .56%
14 - Brady - 10.64%
15 - P. Manning - 11.66%
16 - Brady - 8.62%
17 - Foles - .91%

Found these stats off Reddit with sources.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/commen..._source=amp&utm_medium=&utm_content=post_body

One thing to keep in mind. Cap numbers have high variability over the contract, with money being slushed from one year to the next. True for the QB, and the rest of the team. It's non-trivial to take it all into account, and looking at the cap hit for one year doesn't even try.

QB cap hit should get some inverse normalization relative to how much was spent on their offense. One of the impressive things about the Pats is how little they'll spend on WR and oline, yet still keep winning.

Cap hit on rookie contracts are also different than cap hits post rookie contracts. Those aren't market prices, and they took a pick to get.

Shorter: I wouldn't conclude too much from the cap percentages here.

 

[kskboys]

There is not enough data to claim paying a QB hinders that teams ability to win a championship. There is not. If you think there is, you either do not know statistics or you have an agenda to push. Period. 4-6 with repeats is not a statistically significant sample size. If you believe that you are arguing with Math and Math does not get swayed by emotion.

The ONLY thing we have data to judge is whether paying a franchise QB assists you in making the playoffs and possibly the divisional round (though thats somewhat of a stretch of data a forgivable one). The data shows, in this regard that having a QB does help.

If I were going to use an argument outside of statistics and pick a specific team to pose a theory around, sort of flying in the face of the proposed purpose of the thread but whatever, I would look at the 49ers as a case study on whether its the high picks or the salary cap that help you go that extra mile. The 49ers did not draft a QB BUT they had the advantage of being the position most teams that draft one were in, and that is that they had the high draft picks to load up on talent that usually exists around a young QB. As a sidenote their QB is not very good, which sort of helps to prove to the point. He is getting paid like a franchise QB with a big cap hit, but is worse than most of the others of that level. HOWEVER, what they do have is a boatload of high draft pick talent that usually you only have access to before you get a franchise QB (because once you draft one you do not get to pick that high for a long long time).

Yes, there is. You keep ignoring it and going on rants.

 

[Adreme]

Yes, there is. You keep ignoring it and going on rants.

4-6 is not a statistically significant number especially when we have outliers like what is happening with the Pats. When you before that you encounter the pre rookie wage scale which makes talking about contracts moot because rookies took up a far larger share of the pool. Now if you want to say mathematicians are wrong and cannot do their job then by all means make that argument but I would hope its slightly technical then "are to".

The ONLY data pool that is large enough and diverse enough to be statistically significant (you do need both), is when you judge teams from the divisional round onward. With that we have between 32-48 data points so even with the duplicates we can draw accurate conclusions and spot the outliers and account for them and do all the things you CANT DO with 4-6 data points that include duplicates.

 

[DandyDon52]

This is going to be an interesting experiment. Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL. Do they keep on making super bowl appearances once he's paid? Gonna be a good 'un!!!!!

It will, I am going to pay attention to that.
Mahomes is or has been way better than the avg good qb, so that helps, but he will also I think
be way overpaid. They are going to lose players who now want more money, then they will have
less cap to work with also.