PFF ranks Dak's accuracy

[percyhoward]

If Dak continues to be inaccurate, DCs will take a passing game that doesn't really threaten with the long ball and limits itself to yards that come off the short passing game. We are going to continue to see more blitzes and we will see teams continue to load boxes.

I appreciate the response. So you believe the QB is inaccurate, and that it's causing a problem with the offense that's gotten progressively worse over time.

NFL ranks
yards per drive
2016 5th
2017 10th
2018 games 1-7 22nd
2018 games 8-18 7th

TD per drive
2016 4th
2017 6th
2018 games 1-7 24th
2018 games 8-18 10th

3rd down conversion %, pass
2016 11th
2017 13th
2018 games 1-7 32nd
2018 games 8-18 9th

 

[percyhoward]

The pathetic redzone scoring while having the league leading rusher is telling.

I would also add he needs to get better at recognizing what the defense is doing but that takes time so I'm not going to be too critical of that.

He was great at getting it done at the end if the defense kept it close but too many times the offense disappeared after a strong start forcing a last minute win that didn't need to be that close.

I'm rooting for him. I really am.

I probably wasn't clear with my question, but I was asking how what you believe to be Dak's accuracy issue affects the offense in games. The highlighted part addresses this somewhat, so let's look at how Dak's perceived problems with accuracy affect the red zone.

Red Zone TD% (NFL rank)
2016 5th
2017 7th
2018 26th

Some significant changes at TE, WR, and OL in 2018, but the same QB all three years. So either Dak's accuracy took a nosedive in 2018, or the red zone problem in 2018 wasn't Dak's accuracy. Maybe there's some other possible conclusion that I'm missing, but that's where my thinking takes me.

 

[Vtwin]

I probably wasn't clear with my question, but I was asking how what you believe to be Dak's accuracy issue affects the offense in games. The highlighted part addresses this somewhat, so let's look at how Dak's perceived problems with accuracy affect the red zone.

Red Zone TD% (NFL rank)
2016 5th
2017 7th
2018 26th

Some significant changes at TE, WR, and OL in 2018, but the same QB all three years. So either Dak's accuracy took a nosedive in 2018, or the red zone problem in 2018 wasn't Dak's accuracy. Maybe there's some other possible conclusion that I'm missing, but that's where my thinking takes me.

Swaim and Jarwin are likely not on the same level as the HOF TE they replaced but they proved themselves as capable at the least. Hurns and Gallup probably won't end up surpassing the all time team TD leader they replaced but they proved capable at the least. I think it could be argued that if a QB requires that level of talent to avoid such a significant dropoff some of the responsibility just might lay with the QB.

The first paragraph also addresses your question. The issues are not limited to the redzone. They are magnified in the redzone however.

 

[Blackrain]

Quarterback isn't played on a spreadsheet with a Mac like the nerds at PFF want so desperately to believe. The problem with these stats - and any stats - is that there is so much not taken into consideration.

What about the throws he didn't attempt because he's not comfortable with them? What about the throws that were too late, or too early, that could have resulted in big plays but didn't? What about the throws not made to receivers he didn't see open?

People like to dismiss the eye-test evaluations because they aren't based on facts. But statistical passing "facts" take so little reality into consideration. The eye test is a MUCH more credible assessment of a QB than a manipulated sets of numbers if the person watching understands what he's looking at.

Dak's accuracy issues are obvious, but that's only half the problem. And his strengths, which he certainly has, also aren't fairly represented statistically either.

What about the passes I watched bounce off our receivers hands and Get INTed early in the season . They were catchable hit guys in the hands . What if we had a receiver like Hopkins or Edleman that that can catch anything in there vicinity and make there QB look great . What if Garrett actually let the starting offense all play in preseason since they were new guys with no game experience with one another .

We were very lucky Dak stayed positive kept the team motivated and willed this team to the playoffs after he was handcuffed with no receivers early on . The EYE TEST says he will do everything possible to improve this off season and build more chemistry with Gallup and Cooper Last year was his 1st year with those guys . Those with patients will be pleasantly surprised .

 

[Ranched]

 

[Vtwin]

Now now.

You're only going to encourage somebody to post a meme highlighting the record setting stretch of no TD's.

 

[erod]

Now now.

You're only going to encourage somebody to post a meme highlighting the record setting stretch of no TD's.

 

[blumayne38]

Thank you for all your hard work @percyhoward

I would be interested in seeing the numbers for The rest of the QB’s in the NFL. As in what is the % difference between Dak and the top tier guys and also him and the bottom tier guys.

Based on what you’re saying though with the discrepancy between the two numbers, it seems like Dak is around NFL average accuracy wise.

Which I think is a pretty fair assessment. As I have repeatedly said in the past that he does miss throws due to his inconsistent footwork.

The reason I would like to see his numbers compared to the best in the leagues, would be to see how much ground would Dak need to cover to be in the top 10 accuracy wise? Are we talking about hitting another 5% more accurately or another 15%?

21 out of 35 isn't average it's below average

I probably wasn't clear with my question, but I was asking how what you believe to be Dak's accuracy issue affects the offense in games. The highlighted part addresses this somewhat, so let's look at how Dak's perceived problems with accuracy affect the red zone.

Red Zone TD% (NFL rank)
2016 5th
2017 7th
2018 26th

Some significant changes at TE, WR, and OL in 2018, but the same QB all three years. So either Dak's accuracy took a nosedive in 2018, or the red zone problem in 2018 wasn't Dak's accuracy. Maybe there's some other possible conclusion that I'm missing, but that's where my thinking takes me.

how does Dak do when having to drive the ball from Dallas own territory, not counting the 45-40

 

[blumayne38]

Daks splits on PFR in field position shown he has huge issues driving the football down the field Andrea its mostly due to his inaccuracy

 

[buybuydandavis]

I've said before that Dak "aims" to the side of the receiver away from the defender to minimize INTs.
It's similar to baseball pitchers that nibble at the strikezone vs pounding the strikezone with 100mph pitches.

A good tactic which needs to be adjusted to the situation - how open the WR is, and how deep he is. The deep overthrows are brutal. If they're open, you don't need to protect yourself from INTs as much, and potential big plays shouldn't be thrown away with the same frequency as the short stuff. Take more of a chance for a run away TD than a 5 yard completion.

 

[HungryLion]

21 out of 35 isn't average it's below average

how does Dak do when having to drive the ball from Dallas own territory, not counting the 45-40

I guess you didn’t read the catchable accuracy stat where Dak was top 10.

So Like I said a combination of The two stats, puts him right around average..............

If you don’t understand a post, best not to respond to it.

 

[blumayne38]

I guess you didn’t read the catchable accuracy stat where Dak was top 10.

So Like I said a combination of The two stats, puts him right around average..............

If you don’t understand a post, best not to respond to it.

I understand it completely, the bold is all that matters the underline is just spinning it to make Dak seem somewhat decent. Dak has accuracy issues. He hardly puts it in the numbers and when he does seems like WRs are surprised and sometimes let the ball bounce off their hand and into the air. When 20 out of 100 throws are accurate when you actually get on at the numbers you aren't expecting it


According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself

 

[HungryLion]

I understand it completely, the bold is all that matters the underline is just spinning it to make Dak seem somewhat decent. Dak has accuracy issues. He hardly puts it in the numbers and when he does seems like WRs are surprised and sometimes let the ball bounce off their hand and into the air. When 20 out of 100 throws are accurate when you actually get on at the numbers you aren't expecting it


According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself

No, clearly you don’t understand. Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls. It requires some degree of accuracy to throw a catchable ball.

Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls and 21st in throwing “accurate” balls which don’t require a WR to extend their arms.

The ability to throw a catchable ball is valid QB trait.

So if you factor in he was ABOVE average in throwing catchable balls but BELOW average in throwing a ball inside the receivers box or whatever term they use, that puts Dak right around average total, in my opinion.

Because clearly he is doing something right if he is throwing ABOVE the NFL average number of
Catchable passes. I wonder why “more accurate” QB’s threw

Also idk where you pulled the 20 out of 100 BS from. His accurate passes were 48.6% which is 48.6 out of 100.

You can say the other part is “spin all you want” but that’s just your opinion and quite frankly a dumb one at that. Being able to throw a catchable ball to receivers ABOVE average counts for something. Whether you like it or not.

 

[Runwildboys]

I understand it completely, the bold is all that matters the underline is just spinning it to make Dak seem somewhat decent. Dak has accuracy issues. He hardly puts it in the numbers and when he does seems like WRs are surprised and sometimes let the ball bounce off their hand and into the air. When 20 out of 100 throws are accurate when you actually get on at the numbers you aren't expecting it


According to Pro Football Focus in their QB Annual, Dak ranked 21st out of 35 QB in 2018 with 48.6% of his aimed attempts that were considered "accurate." It's important to note that PFF doesn't consider all catchable passes "accurate," but only those on which the receiver didn't have to extend his arms outside what they call the "frame" (the zone of his head and torso) to catch. If the receiver bent down, reached above the top of the helmet, or to either side out away from his body, they called that an "inaccurate catchable" pass. Any catchable pass that isn't caught is considered a drop by PFF, so there is a weird grey area there that includes so-called "inaccurate" passes that should be caught.

That distinction between "accurate" and "catchable" means a lot, because PFF ranked Prescott 9th out of 35 with 68.0% of his aimed attempts that were considered "catchable." So I guess you could either say Dak ranks in the bottom 15 (out of 35) or in the top 10, depending on what you think accuracy means. PFF's George Chahrouri, who put the QB annual together, says "It's nice to throw accurate passes, but it's terrible to throw uncatchable passes."

Whatever you think about PFF's terminology, they did watch every pass of all 35 QB, so this is probably as thorough an analysis and as objective a ranking as you're going to get without watching every pass of every QB yourself

One thing to consider is that a QB hitting the "frame" requires the receiver to have the front of his body exposed to the QB. That means the accuracy stat is subject to coverage and the routes being run. For instance, if the WR is running an out route, it's not possible to hit that "frame", and the only completion would be considered an "inaccurate catchable" pass.

Just a thought.

 

[Blackrain]

No, clearly you don’t understand. Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls. It requires some degree of accuracy to throw a catchable ball.

Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls and 21st in throwing “accurate” balls which don’t require a WR to extend their arms.

The ability to throw a catchable ball is valid QB trait.

So if you factor in he was ABOVE average in throwing catchable balls but BELOW average in throwing a ball inside the receivers box or whatever term they use, that puts Dak right around average total, in my opinion.

Because clearly he is doing something right if he is throwing ABOVE the NFL average number of
Catchable passes. I wonder why “more accurate” QB’s threw

Also idk where you pulled the 20 out of 100 BS from. His accurate passes were 48.6% which is 48.6 out of 100.

You can say the other part is “spin all you want” but that’s just your opinion and quite frankly a dumb one at that. Being able to throw a catchable ball to receivers ABOVE average counts for something. Whether you like it or not.

You got it brother catchable balls are the stat to go by every route is not a buttonhook . Receivers need to be thrown open , back shouldered , jump balled and basically given a chance to make a play while trying to keep the ball in a spot where the DB dosent have a good shot at it .

Anybody who cant fathom this concept just look at the balls thrown to Hopkins on the Texans and the spectacular catches he makes that are no where near the frame . The FRAME what a Joke this is the NFL

 

[percyhoward]

How does Dak do when having to drive the ball from Dallas own territory, not counting the 45-40

On drives starting inside their own 40, the Cowboys ranked 25th in TD% before the trade for Cooper, 7th after the trade.

 

[Diehardblues]

So.
Here's the Question I give to you- as I value your opinion over most:

What is your personal opinion of Dak Prescott, as a QB?

This is a basic problem though and why Cowboy fans shouldn’t be the ones evaluating their own QB because personal emotions and favoritism can’t be a factor.

 

[Diehardblues]

This ranking aligns with his stats pretty much throughout the season. Dak was ranked about 20th-24th the first part of the season and ended up about 15th or 16th with a stronger finish.

We have a QB who brings some very good intangible assets. He’s a gamer , leader and a winner. He’s just not a great passer . Inconsistent best describes him. It is what it is. It’s not breaking news.

 

[blumayne38]

No, clearly you don’t understand. Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls. It requires some degree of accuracy to throw a catchable ball.

Dak was top 10 in throwing catchable balls and 21st in throwing “accurate” balls which don’t require a WR to extend their arms.

The ability to throw a catchable ball is valid QB trait.

So if you factor in he was ABOVE average in throwing catchable balls but BELOW average in throwing a ball inside the receivers box or whatever term they use, that puts Dak right around average total, in my opinion.

Because clearly he is doing something right if he is throwing ABOVE the NFL average number of
Catchable passes. I wonder why “more accurate” QB’s threw

Also idk where you pulled the 20 out of 100 BS from. His accurate passes were 48.6% which is 48.6 out of 100.

You can say the other part is “spin all you want” but that’s just your opinion and quite frankly a dumb one at that. Being able to throw a catchable ball to receivers ABOVE average counts for something. Whether you like it or not.

All just you trying really hard

 

[HungryLion]

All just you trying really hard

Thanks for the valid retort.