JonCJG
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POSTED 8:36 a.m. EDT, April 26, 2006
TEAM LEINART BRACING FOR SLIDE?At a time when former USC tailback Reggie Bush is dealing with an unwelcome distraction that could disrupt his plan to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, his teammate who could have been the first pick in 2004 could now be facing a slide conjuring memories of the Aaron Rodgers plunge in 2005.
A source close to the Leinart camp tells us that Matt's handlers have accepted the reality that the Titans won't be drafting their guy at No. 3, barring a dramatic reversal of the current intention to acquire Texas quarterback Vince Young. Per the source, new Leinart agent Tom Condon has attempted to get some kind of an assurance from each of the teams drafting in the top five -- but has gotten nothing.
At No. 4, the Jets are not expected to draft a quarterback. Word is that they are looking to land Alabama's Brodie Croyle later in the day.
At No. 5, the Packers can't afford to spend another first-rounder on a guy who'll do nothing for them in 2006, especially since Lord Favre is coming back for one more year.
At No. 6, the 49ers have their quarterback in Alex Smith.
We'd initially presumed that the Raiders would take Leinart at No. 7, but we're now hearing from multiple sources that they won't.
The Bills won't touch Leinart at No. 8, unless G.M. Marv Levy is even nuttier than we currently believe.
At No. 9, there's no way the Lions pounce on Leinart.
Then we come to the Cardinals at No. 10. Will Denny Green be able to resist drafting a guy who falls into his lap, just like Randy Moss did eight years ago? We've got the Cardinals taking offensive tackle Winston Justice, given the importance of beefing up the group of guys who are going to be charged with keeping those big-money skill-position players alive.
At No. 11, quarterback is one of the few positions that the Rams have covered.
At No. 12, we can't see the Browns taking Leinart.
Then come the Ravens at No. 13. In our current mock draft, we've got them taking Vanderbilt quarterback Jay Cutler. Though we're feeling a little wishy-washy about whether Brian the Brain will stake his future on another first-round signal-caller, it might be hard for the supposed offensive guru to
not take Leinart, if he falls into the team's lap.
And we think that the lowest Leinart would go, if he gets past Baltimore, is Minnesota at No. 17.
So the 2004 Heisman winner won't fall as dramatically as Rodgers did a year ago, when the Jeff Tedford prodigy plunged from potentially being the No. 1 pick all the way to No. 24. But given that Leinart was the presumptive No. 1 choice in 2005, and that he most likely would have been taken by the 49ers with the first pick, the possibility of sliding to No. 10 or lower translates into millions and millions of dollars of money that will never come back.
USC PLAYERS KNEW ABOUT BUSH GOINGS-ON
From the perspective of the USC football program, the only question regarding the Reggie Bush rigmarole that really matters is whether anyone in a position of authority knew or should have known that Reggie or his family were receiving benefits from any prospective agent.
Based on information we've picked up from several sources, it is now obvious to us that multiple members of the USC team knew that something was going on with Reggie.
What that "something" is remains to be a matter of contention. Players knew about Bush's family living in a house that they didn't own. Players knew that Bush was involved, to some extent, with the New Era group.
Regardless of whether Bush's eligibility actually had been compromised, the fact is that there was enough chatter in and around the locker room to trigger the program's duty to inquire. That's the premise of the "should have known" standard. The head coach and his staff can't plug their fingers into their ears and yell, "La la la la, we're not listening." When there's information to suggest that a violation of NCAA bylaws might have occurred, the program has an obligation to look into it.
In this case, we believe based on what we've heard that coach Pete Carroll or someone who works for him should have done something to ensure that Bush was still technically eligible throughout the 2005 season.
NO. 1 PICK CAN GET AT LEAST $27.64125 MILLION GUARANTEED
Okay, so maybe we weren't wrong after all.
On Tuesday morning, we took issue with a suggestion by John McClain of the Houston Chronicle that it would be impossible for the top pick in 2006 to get as much as $22 million in guaranteed money, even though the first overall pick in 2005 received $24 million in guaranteed cash.
On Tuesday night, we acknowledged that we were wrong and that McClain was right. (Tastes like chicken.)
But now that we've cleared up our remaining area of confusion regarding the manner in which the 25 percent rule applies to rookie deals, we'll acknowledge only that McClain was on the right track, but that his attempt to explain the situation was woefully incomplete.
Per a league source with experience negotiating the contracts of high first-round picks, the maximum guaranteed money of $21.2625 million to the first pick is premised upon the receipt of an option bonus that extends an initial five-year deal to a six-year package. If the player is willing to forgo an option bonus and thus sign a straight six-year deal, the maximum amount of guaranteed money that can be paid shoots to $27.64125 million.
The downside for the player, however, is that $6.37875 million of the guaranteed money won't be paid out until 2011. In fact, a whopping $17.01 million under such a deal would be paid out after January 1, 2009, and the present value of that money would be significantly lower.
Still, if the player wants maximum "guaranteed" money beyond the $24 million that Smith received in 2005, there's a way to get it. But the player will simply have to wait until 2011 in order to pocket it all.
And as we explained on Tuesday night, there are other ways to funnel lots of money to the player without calling it "guaranteed."
Bottom line -- if the guy taken with the No. 1 overall pick wants his contract to reflect the 20 percent jump in the salary cap under the new CBA, there's a new way to make it happen, even with only a five-percent bump in the rookie pool.
