PFW Nawrocki: NFC East Post-Draft Analysis

[PullMyFinger]

Ya I like that Mickens pick a lot, he could be the fourth cb right now if his knee is ok.

In the future I could see him, Jenkins, and Scandrick as our starters.

 

[SMCowboy]

Projections from Nawrocki's 2009 Draft Preview guide:
Rd Pick Player Pos College

3 69 Jason Williams OLB Western Illinois - Late Draftable Prospect/Priority Free Agent

You don't get invited to visit with 12+ teams right before the draft and go as a late round prospect or Priority Free Agent.

Do these not see what players are being visited and update their rankings?

 

[WoodysGirl]

Projections from Nawrocki's 2009 Draft Preview guide:
Rd Pick Player Pos College

3 69 Jason Williams OLB Western Illinois - Late Draftable Prospect/Priority Free Agent

3 75 Robert Brewster OG Ball State - Late Draftable Prospect

4 101 Stephen McGee QB Texas A&M - Mid to Late Draftable Prospect

4 110 Victor Butler OLB Oregon State - Late Draftable Prospect/Priority Free Agent

4 120 Brandon Williams DE Texas Tech - Mid to Late Round Talent

5 143 DeAngelo Smith CB Cincinnati - Mid-Round Talent

5 166 Michael Hamlin FS Clemson - Third to Fourth Round Talent

5 172 David Buehler PK USC - Late Draftable Prospect/Priority Free Agent

6 197 Stephen Hodge OLB TCU - Mid to Late Draftable Prospect

6 208 John Phillips TE Virginia - Mid to Late Draftable Prospect

7 227 Mike Mickens CB Cincinnati - Mid-Round pick

7 229 Manuel Johnson WR Oklahoma - Late Draftable Prospect/Priority Free Agent

So these guys all went right around where they were supposed to. Not bad.

 

[Alexander]

The people like this guy and McShay that had Jason Williams as a 6th or 7th rounder are simply not informed. He was a super-fast riser after his workouts when teams perked up and started checking into him.

They weren't scratching their heads like they did with the Mitchell pick though. They all knew who he was. There was not a single publication or pundit that had him higher than a fifth round choice. Most of the time that is not unusual as workouts can vault a player up, but rarely is it that high. But they knew he was rising, just not like a rocket. It was only in the days leading up to the draft that more was brought up about how many visits he went on.

I'd bet Williams is at least as good as a guy like Laurinaitis... But because one guy went to Ohio State and the other went to Western Illinois, the wannabe pundits didn't know as much about him.

That's a little overboard. He's more athletic for sure, but he will need a while to be as techically sound as Laurinaitus, especially since he will be learning an entirely new defense.

 

[jterrell]

Brewster was ranked 8th among the guards, that would put him probably in the 4-5th round area.

I know your question was about Brewster, but Nawrocki had Jason Williams as his 18th ranked OLB, behind even Victor Butler (16th) and Stephen Hodge (13th). With the exception of Buehler (#1 K) and McGee (#5 QB) and Hamlin (#2 SS), we did not take a player ranked in the top five of their position. Hamlin carried the highest grade at 72 out of 150; DeAngelo Smith was at 107, Mike Mickens was at 116, McGee was 128, Brandon Williams was 142, John Phillips was 143 and Stephen Hodge was 149. No one else was in his top 150 regardless of position. It was almost that our draft class was inverse of his rankings, great value late, poor value in the third round.

Isn't that the core issue tho... Nawrocki didn't rank Williams for a 3-4 defense at all.

 

[jterrell]

They weren't scratching their heads like they did with the Mitchell pick though. They all knew who he was. There was not a single publication or pundit that had him higher than a fifth round choice. Most of the time that is not unusual as workouts can vault a player up, but rarely is it that high. But they knew he was rising, just not like a rocket. It was only in the days leading up to the draft that more was brought up about how many visits he went on.



That's a little overboard. He's more athletic for sure, but he will need a while to be as techically sound as Laurinaitus, especially since he will be learning an entirely new defense.

I hear what you are saying but Bobby Carpenter, Derek Ross and untold legions of other busts went through Ohio State as well. Not sure they are all that technically sound really.

Williams has almost certainly had the benefit of lesser training and equipment yet is still far superior athletically and it is Williams who holds the record for most forced fumbles so it seems he does have an instinct for that area of the game at least.

Maybe its me but I don't want to draft another OSU LB for a long, long time.

 

[big dog cowboy]

Maybe its me but I don't want to draft another OSU LB for a long, long time.

 

[CantonBound08]

You don't get invited to visit with 12+ teams right before the draft and go as a late round prospect or Priority Free Agent.

Do these not see what players are being visited and update their rankings?

This guide is released around the beginning of April. I think they provide updates on their website. So, their projections could have changed by the time the draft rolled around.

 

[Alexander]

Whose rankings do you trust more this guy or Gooslin or Brandt. In both Gooslin and Brandt's rankings we had 4 and 5 guys in the top 100.

I don't trust any of them more. It's only information, not gospel truth.

Gosselin has been wrong often, so has Brandt.

The fact is the "consensus" stated we reached in the third round and got value choices late.

So for the purposes of this discussion, we "reached" if you put a great deal of stock into pundit evaluations. And since 99% of us never watched the likes of Jason Williams or Robert Brewster play a great deal, that's all some have to go on. It is what it is. Information, nothing more or less.

It is irrelevant at any rate. We will see soon enough. And forget about this discussion three years from now.

 

[SMCowboy]

I don't trust any of them more. It's only information, not gospel truth.

Gosselin has been wrong often, so has Brandt.

The fact is the "consensus" stated we reached in the third round and got value choices late.

So for the purposes of this discussion, we "reached" if you put a great deal of stock into pundit evaluations. And since 99% of us never watched the likes of Jason Williams or Robert Brewster play a great deal, that's all some have to go on. It is what it is. Information, nothing more or less.

It is irrelevant at any rate. We will see soon enough. And forget about this discussion three years from now.

The ONLY people that say we reached are the pundits that run draft site, but there are certainly several NFL teams that do NOT feel that Williams was a reach at #69.

Gosselin's rankings are wrong because NFL scouts are wrong at times. But, Gosselin's rankings are ALWAYS 100% accurate as to how a majority of NFL teams have their draft board setup.

So a majority of NFL teams that did not have Williams as a reach in the 3rd round. Even Matt Mosely is having to admit, that there are two completely different views on Williams. Some scouts LOVE Williams, others had him as a 7th round DP. Which scouts will prove to be correct, we do not know yet, only time will tell. But, if we liked Williams we would have HAD to draft him at either #69 or MAYBE #75, but it certainly is far from certain he would have even made it to #75....

 

[SMCowboy]

So for the purposes of this discussion, we "reached" if you put a great deal of stock into pundit evaluations. And since 99% of us never watched the likes of Jason Williams or Robert Brewster play a great deal, that's all some have to go on. It is what it is. Information, nothing more or less.

Pundit's website are NOT all we have to go on, atleast not for those two. We have Goose's top 100, which is put together by looking at several NFL draft board, so we do know for a FACT that we are NOT the only NFL team that had either of them rated as a 3rd round DP.

 

[jterrell]

The fact is the "consensus" stated we reached in the third round and got value choices late.

So for the purposes of this discussion, we "reached" if you put a great deal of stock into pundit evaluations. And since 99% of us never watched the likes of Jason Williams or Robert Brewster play a great deal, that's all some have to go on. It is what it is. Information, nothing more or less.

It is irrelevant at any rate. We will see soon enough. And forget about this discussion three years from now.

I think that is fair but not to the extent it gets portrayed. The "composite top 100" that AdamJT13 compiled weighing pundits base don past results including Goose listed 127 players.

Jason Williams and Robert Brewster were BOTH top 100 tho just barely. That's fine to call that a small reach but it isn't like the silly bunnies calling Jason Williams a 7th rounder. We took late 3rd round prospects in the early 3rd round. Whooptie friggin do, imho.

FWIW Mike Mickens and Stephen McGee both also made that list. So the "consensus" left us with 5 of the top 120+ players even though we didn't draft a single player til 69. That's pretty good drafting imho.

My day two mock had us take JWill at 101 and McGee at 111. I also tabbed us to get Philips because as I noted TE were the BPA almost every round and eventually we'd have to bite. So I am not gonna berate the draft as it grabbed about the same value I suggested.

Did Michael Johnson have more pundit value? Yes, he did. But scouts didn't like him on tape so he fell. I can't complain about that. The last thing I want the team to do is draft guys they have watched and ignore bad performance because they were workout warriors.

 

[bbgun]

Somebody at National Football Post doesn't care for Brewster.


Picks that left me wondering…

CB Lardarius Webb, Baltimore Ravens

I have no problem with the Ravens taking a cornerback with their third-round selection; in fact, I thought they might address their cornerback need in the first or second round. The thing that baffled me about their third-round pick was that they drafted the undersized Webb, who stands only 5-10 and 179 pounds. When I look at the Ravens’ depth chart, I see a group of smaller corners like Fabian Washington, Chris Carr and Domonique Foxworth, all of whom lack size and struggle when asked to cover some of the more physically imposing receivers in the NFL. I’m not saying Webb doesn’t have the makings of a solid contributing cornerback at the next level. I just wonder about the idea of bringing in another undersized corner to a group that needs to add some size and physical toughness to the position.



OG Louis Vasquez, San Diego Chargers

Vasquez is a big, physically strapping offensive lineman with a thick base and good lower body strength. He fits the prototype of size and attitude the Chargers want from their offensive linemen. But he isn’t particularly fluid and was helped out tremendously in pass protection by the quick-hit offense at Texas Tech. Obviously, the smaller splits in the NFL will help out with his lack of agility in space. But I still see Vasquez struggling when asked to handle any kind of burst or quickness inside. He has the frame and power to develop into a very good run blocker, but there are concerns about his agility and the fact that so few offensive linemen from Texas Tech’s spread offense have found success in the NFL. I think the Chargers’ fourth round pick, OG Tyronne Green, will give them more production up front than Vasquez.



OG/OT Robert Brewster, Dallas Cowboys

Brewster has the size and frame (6-4, 325) to look like an ideal fit for the type of big road-graders the Cowboys love to have up front. But after studying tape of him, you quickly see that he doesn’t play as physical or as strong as his frame indicates. He’s more of a finesse blocker who’s very coordinated and does a nice job using his feet and length to get outside and seal linemen away from the play. However, he lacks the type of athleticism needed to play tackle in the NFL and will most likely get kicked inside to guard. Brewster lacks the type of lower body strength to get initial push in the run game and doesn’t display much of a punch on contact. He’s a smooth, fluid athlete, but his lack of strength and overall power shows up consistently on film, and for a team like the Cowboys, who love powerful maulers up front, I don’t think he’s a good fit.

 

[BAT]

The comments on Brewster's lack of power, especially against the run, was what I saw and heard about the player as well. But Brewster has the lateral agility and intelligence to also play Center IMO. I think his versatility and potential are what drew the Cowboys, especially after Unger was no longer available. The other Center options were not as big, or if they were big perhaps not as agile, or as experienced. Or their upside to play other line positions was limited. Of the remaining hybrid OL, only TJ Lang and Antoine Caldwell were realistic options, or good value in the 3rd. Lang, college OT, was known for being a nasty blocker, and while projected to play inside (OG) at the next level, it would still be a transition due to his lack of experience. Learning 2 new positions (OG & C) might have been problematic, especially in the short term. Caldwell is obviously the better C prospect of the three, but appears too light and not strong enough to man the OG spot in a Houck scheme, at least not for any length of time. While Caldwell had experience playing all the line spots, he did not do so with distinction. Brewster did play two OL positions with distinction (OT and OG), and if moved to center, would only be learning one new position. IMO making him less of a project and ready to contribute sooner.


A side note, I loved the Ravens pick. Webb is not just playmaker, but he is also very aggressive and physical, despite his lack of height/weight, and is versatile enough to contribute at FOUR positions (corner, safety, slot & returner). Three immediately. He would have to gain about 15 lbs of muscle to be more than a spot safety in the NFL, but he has amazing instincts and ball awareness. His 4.35 speed does not hurt one bit either. Webb was a great pick IMO.

 

[jobberone]

The ONLY people that say we reached are the pundits that run draft site, but there are certainly several NFL teams that do NOT feel that Williams was a reach at #69.

Gosselin's rankings are wrong because NFL scouts are wrong at times. But, Gosselin's rankings are ALWAYS 100% accurate as to how a majority of NFL teams have their draft board setup.

So a majority of NFL teams that did not have Williams as a reach in the 3rd round. Even Matt Mosely is having to admit, that there are two completely different views on Williams. Some scouts LOVE Williams, others had him as a 7th round DP. Which scouts will prove to be correct, we do not know yet, only time will tell. But, if we liked Williams we would have HAD to draft him at either #69 or MAYBE #75, but it certainly is far from certain he would have even made it to #75....

This is what I tried to say....just not as well.

The comments on Brewster's lack of power, especially against the run, was what I saw and heard about the player as well. But Brewster has the lateral agility and intelligence to also play Center IMO. I think his versatility and potential are what drew the Cowboys, especially after Unger was no longer available. The other Center options were not as big, or if they were big perhaps not as agile, or as experienced. Or their upside to play other line positions was limited. Of the remaining hybrid OL, only TJ Lang and Antoine Caldwell were realistic options, or good value in the 3rd. Lang, college OT, was known for being a nasty blocker, and while projected to play inside (OG) at the next level, it would still be a transition due to his lack of experience. Learning 2 new positions (OG & C) might have been problematic, especially in the short term. Caldwell is obviously the better C prospect of the three, but appears too light and not strong enough to man the OG spot in a Houck scheme, at least not for any length of time. While Caldwell had experience playing all the line spots, he did not do so with distinction. Brewster did play two OL positions with distinction (OT and OG), and if moved to center, would only be learning one new position. IMO making him less of a project and ready to contribute sooner.

Haven't read much on Brewster. But the post above yours made me think the same thing about Brewster being a center. Perhaps they did project him there and not just as any interior lineman. I've read he does have good upper body strength though. We'll see. You pays your dollar and you takes your chance.