Playoff Update Dec 1st - Down to 17% after Sunday's Games

StarW said:
If we beat the Lions on Thursday, we take over the #8 slot. That's step one. I'd expect us to move up to #7 or so by season's end if we beat the Lions this Thursday, because some of the teams above us are going to lose. Here's why.

Packers have to play the Bears, Bears, Broncos, and Ravens.

Bears have to play the Packers, Packers, Lions, and 49ers.

Carolina and Bucs play each other twice down the stretch.

Lion's still have to play Rams and Bears.

Seahaws still have to play the Rams, 49ers, Panthers, and Colts.

Rams have to play the Seahawks, and Lions.

49ers have the Colts, Bears, and Seahawks.

Now that we're past the Eagles and Chiefs, we have an easier path than most of these other potential playoff teams. Beat the Lions and I'll feel good about our odds.
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You can get to the 8 spot pretty easily, but you're still 3 wins back of the 7 seed with just 5 games to go. I just can't see the WC being a realistic option. The Eagles finishing their collapse seems to be the best chance we have.
 
There is a good possibility that two wildcard teams will have 12 wins. Dallas can’t pass either but they get in ahead of anyone else at 11 wins other than Green Bay. That would come down to the tiebreaker in the end. I still think they get in if they win out, a lot would have to go wrong in order not to.
 
StarLord said:
Hey now, didn't you hear? That 3-5-1 start is Jerry '"having a great year".

Don't ask me to explain it, I can't.
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Prompting someone to seriously start a thread on Jerry being GM of the year. There are several posters on here who are really big on [fill in the blank] for player, coach, GM, waterboy of the year.
 
It's too early to predict. Very complicated web of what the 49ers, Lions and Packers do over the next few weeks.

In 10 minutes clicking through the playoff machine, I found ways we could get in by winning out (both as division champs and wildcard) and by losing one more game (wildcard). Just do our part and the rest will be what it will be.
 
VaqueroTD said:
Not looking good after Sunday's games. Everything we didn't want to happen... happened. However, Friday was terrific with Philadelphia collapsing again. It's a shame they have a bye week at the perfect moment. Now is the time they need to regroup. San Fran also has a bye week coming up to rest.

Playoff odds have shrunk from 19% to 17%. San Francisco is now the leader of the pack.

Our Division win probability has gone up from 5% to 10% though after the weekend games. So some of you who have been making threads saying it must go through a Philly collapse and an NFC East win are getting closer.

Both Wild Card and NFC East Cowboys must win out, and need some teams to lose. Cowboys finish 11-5-1 by winning out so 11 is the magic number. Any team except Green Bay cannot beat us if they too have 11 wins.

WILD CARD (Still claimed by 3 teams)
  • Detroit and Carolina cannot beat us if we win out.
  • LA Rams, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks 9-3
    • 5 games left, 2-3 finish makes them 11-6
  • San Francisco 9-4: 4 games left
    • 500 finish makes them 11-6
  • Green Bay Packers 8-3-1: 5 games left
    • 2-3 finish makes them 10-6-1
  • We need one of those 5 teams to collapse to 11 wins, or 10 wins if it's Green Bay.
NFC EAST (Still claimed by Philly)
  • Philly is 8-4. 5 Games Left. If they finish season at 3-2, They are 11-6, we win the NFC East.
Truly comes down to Strength of Schedule and Personnel which I believe favor us. Our last tough opponents are Detroit and LA Chargers. And we seem to be healthier than other teams, including our own team that didn't have this many starters on defense just a month ago.

nfc_playoffs.jpg
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Yes, still very much a longshot to get in. Cowboys just need to keep on winning and hope the teams above them lose some games down the stretch.
 
gtb1943 said:
Some teams play well enough that they do not have to worry

I admit I did not think the Pats and Broncos would be the only 10 game winners by the end of week 12.

They truly do not have to rely on anyone else.

we stank on D until Natural Gas Man made a deal that actually was really good. That and return of injured players has made it respectable.

The fact that the D stank so bad is of course the FO responsibility. They came into this season wearing rose colored glasses and got them slapped off their faces.
Now whether the clear vision is temporary or not is the question
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This is true, but usually only for a few teams in any given year. It is not like all 14 playoff teams get set after 10 to 12 games.
Yes you have a few teams like that, and usually are different every year.
At time teams are the same like KC, but look at where they are now. They need a lot of help to have a chance at a WC.
 
VaqueroTD said:
Not looking good after Sunday's games. Everything we didn't want to happen... happened. However, Friday was terrific with Philadelphia collapsing again. It's a shame they have a bye week at the perfect moment. Now is the time they need to regroup. San Fran also has a bye week coming up to rest.

Playoff odds have shrunk from 19% to 17%. San Francisco is now the leader of the pack.

Our Division win probability has gone up from 5% to 10% though after the weekend games. So some of you who have been making threads saying it must go through a Philly collapse and an NFC East win are getting closer.

Both Wild Card and NFC East Cowboys must win out, and need some teams to lose. Cowboys finish 11-5-1 by winning out so 11 is the magic number. Any team except Green Bay cannot beat us if they too have 11 wins.

WILD CARD (Still claimed by 3 teams)
  • Detroit and Carolina cannot beat us if we win out.
  • LA Rams, Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks 9-3
    • 5 games left, 2-3 finish makes them 11-6
  • San Francisco 9-4: 4 games left
    • 500 finish makes them 11-6
  • Green Bay Packers 8-3-1: 5 games left
    • 2-3 finish makes them 10-6-1
  • We need one of those 5 teams to collapse to 11 wins, or 10 wins if it's Green Bay.
NFC EAST (Still claimed by Philly)
  • Philly is 8-4. 5 Games Left. If they finish season at 3-2, They are 11-6, we win the NFC East.
Truly comes down to Strength of Schedule and Personnel which I believe favor us. Our last tough opponents are Detroit and LA Chargers. And we seem to be healthier than other teams, including our own team that didn't have this many starters on defense just a month ago.

nfc_playoffs.jpg
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Philly already had their bye week. They play the Chargers on the 8th.
 
805BoysInBlue said:
How are the Panthers ahead when they have 6 loses?
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I think that is the projection of the remaining schedule. To however they calculate things. Maybe based on strength of schedule.

Winning % Dallas is ahead.

Dallas 6-5 is at .545
Carolina 7-6 is at .538

Carolina has a bye week this week
 
jazzcat22 said:
Right, but that is the way it works though. All teams end up relying on outcomes of other games. Been that way forever.

Cowboys just needs to win out, and everything else may very well take care of itself.
Beat Detroit, and see what happens on Sunday. Still may not clear things up much.
Unless Chargers beat Eagles., then the NFCE race gets interesting.
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I don't think they can win out I still believe they'll drop one somewhere we gotta hope it's not the one that kills Whatever hopes we have. I've never been one to score watch and watch other teams so two games left in the season that's when these scenarios come into play that's when they'll get more important because if there still is a chance that will be score watching every single game that matters to the Cowboys I know that but right now it's way too far out for that they got too much ahead of them...
 
Nova said:
The best record to miss the playoffs since the expansion to 7 teams is 10-6.

If the Cowboys win out, and end the season 11-5-1, I find it hard to believe they’ll be on the outside.

Destiny isn’t in our own hands— not truly. But it seems like it kind of is.
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11 wins should get them in the playoffs.
 
jazzcat22 said:
The only thing that happened Sunday that hurt our chances slimly was Seattle winning.

did anyone expect Cleveland to beat SF.
Well, even did anyone expect Seattle to lose. Or expect Arizona to beat TB.

Did it really matter the winner between the Rams and Panthers. Yes it would been nice if Panhers and TB lost. However they play other twice yet. One will win the division. We win out, we just need one to have 6 losses. Which Carolina has. And very possible TB gets a 6th.

We beat Detroit. We just need SF too. lose 2 games, or Seattle and GB to lose 3 games.

I do not need no "stinking" playoff generator or analytics. :laugh:
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Run the table and it will work it's self out.
 
really only two scenarios. Overtake the eagles for the division or overtake the Packers who have a highly difficult schedule. They play the bears twice, the ravens and the bills. If they can lose 3. Of those games and we handle Business that’s our best bet.


Eagles schedule is too light going forward….: they’d have to really beat themselves to overtake them
 
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