Predicting NFC East Wins and Losses; playoff odds

[jobberone]

Ok the bad first. Since '78 only 18 of 208 teams that began 2-4 made the playoffs. Unfortunately that's a tad over 8%. Via computer simulations Dallas and Wash are -4 using DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds). For Contrast GB and NE are 13.

But in the East I don't know those hold true although we have a tough row to hoe.

Here's the Giant's schedule:

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-27%20at%205.58.22%20PM_zpshviumyps.png

And the Boys:

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-27%20at%206.01.18%20PM_zpsqotjjncl.png

Not doing Was or Phi but that doesn't mean they can't win it.

There are no games remaining on the Giants schedule that are sure wins. They have 5 games away. We have none either but Romo plays 7/10 games left.

The odds of making the playoffs beginning 2-4, IMO, is skewed with the return of Dez the Romo. I won't and can't predict the odds but I will say there is no way we're out of it...today. I don't believe any team is going to walk away from the rest of the division. If we can win at least one and preferably two of the next three then we can win this division. We have the most talent in this division and with Romo we should be the favorite.

OTOH, if we go into the Thanksgiving game 2-7 then the rest of the division will have to fall to us for us to win at 7-9 to 9-7.

not proofed

 

[cowboyblue22]

im just hoping they can figure out a way to win a game take this one week at a time.

 

[TimHortons]

I think we pretty much have to at least beat Tampa to have any shot. Going 2-7 and having to win 7 straight (including against GB) to get to 9-7 will be extremely difficulty, and even if we did it, 9-7 may not win the division. To have any shot imo, we need to at least beat Tampa to get to 3-6, and obviously beating the eagles would help as well.

 

[Alexander]

im just hoping they can figure out a way to win a game take this one week at a time.

That is the only way to go.

They have spent the whole year counting games and looking ahead. Four games for Hardy, McClain. Then the Bryant injury. Then the Romo one.

They all need to bear down and realize that the only way to get rescued is to stay alive. The way to do that is sell out each week like it is your last.

This applies to the players but especially the coaches. They spent weeks playing not to lose with Weeden. And it cost them.

 

[cowboyschmps3]

im just hoping they can figure out a way to win a game take this one week at a time.

Yup same here

 

[Bleu Star]

Ok the bad first. Since '78 only 18 of 208 teams that began 2-4 made the playoffs. Unfortunately that's a tad over 8%. Via computer simulations Dallas and Wash are -4 using DVOA (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds). For Contrast GB and NE are 13.

But in the East I don't know those hold true although we have a tough row to hoe.

Here's the Giant's schedule:

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-27%20at%205.58.22%20PM_zpshviumyps.png

And the Boys:

http://i471.***BLOCKED***/albums/rr75/jobberone/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-27%20at%206.01.18%20PM_zpsqotjjncl.png

Not doing Was or Phi but that doesn't mean they can't win it.

There are no games remaining on the Giants schedule that are sure wins. They have 5 games away. We have none either but Romo plays 7/10 games left.

The odds of making the playoffs beginning 2-4, IMO, is skewed with the return of Dez the Romo. I won't and can't predict the odds but I will say there is no way we're out of it...today. I don't believe any team is going to walk away from the rest of the division. If we can win at least one and preferably two of the next three then we can win this division. We have the most talent in this division and with Romo we should be the favorite.

OTOH, if we go into the Thanksgiving game 2-7 then the rest of the division will have to fall to us for us to win at 7-9 to 9-7.

not proofed

I can't see past Sunday.

 

[cowboys1981]

NY could lose the last 4 easily. I can see WSH n TB as their wins, NO and MIA are both picking up steam. We need to win on our end before Romo comes back or we'll be in a hole we can't overcome.

Keeping the faith!

 

[big dog cowboy]

CHAMPIONSHIP!

(amiright?)

 

[rynochop]

Ugh. Going 5-2 when Romo gets back is best case scenario it looks to me

I.d be interested what the playoff percentage is with a team losing 4 straight

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

Even the games that we play when Romo is back are going to be hard. Carolina, GB and the Jets especially. We have got to figure out a way to stay in this race. I agree though, I can see about 6 games the Giants could lose easily. And the others are toss ups. The Giants are not a good team.

 

[SHAMSzy]

Beat Seattle

 

[jobberone]

CHAMPIONSHIP!

(amiright?)

You're always right!

 

[jobberone]

Ugh. Going 5-2 when Romo gets back is best case scenario it looks to me

I.d be interested what the playoff percentage is with a team losing 4 straight

That's a good question. In reality it depends on what your record is to start and your final one as well as you division rivals. But it can't be good to do that.

 

[65fastback2plus2]

Ugh. Going 5-2 when Romo gets back is best case scenario it looks to me

I.d be interested what the playoff percentage is with a team losing 4 straight

Tony is going to run the table.

He will come back with a vengeance and is going to put it to everyone.

 

[jazzcat22]

Need to just beat Seattle before even thinking ahead.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

I don't want us to go 0-7 without Romo but how great would that be if we were 0-7 without Romo, 9-0 with him, and 4-0 in the playoffs with him? Is there really any possibly way the world could discredit him then?

 

[Junglist]

CHAMPIONSHIP!

(amiright?)

If we somehow turn this thing around and win the Super Bowl, I will go to downtown Dallas and light cars on fire, while streaking.

 

[ShiningStar]

"next years champs" kids, 20 years and counting.

 

[jobberone]

"next years champs" kids, 20 years and counting.

Quick without looking it up...which teams won a championship with a backup QB?

Edit: they had to have started half a season not a few games.

 

[Derinyar]

The stats about teams that go 0-4 not making the playoffs I'm not sure really apply to this particular team. Normally those a terrible teams with multiple holes from the start of the season. If we manage 1-2 wins in the next three then something like 5-2 quite possibly wins the division down the stretch. This is different from most teams with a 4 loss stretch because we are going to get two elite players back, and we've already gotten 1 elite player back. I firmly believe that the team as constructed in the off season was an elite team, we just had two of probably three players we couldn't afford to lose go down within a week of each other.