Predicting the Cowboys Picks, 2019 Edition

JBell

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These are always fun to look at after a few years. Note: My predictions aren't what I want to happen, they're what I think will happen. Best Case/Worst Case is where I talk about my dream/nightmare draft.

#58:
They're drafting a safety here. Unless the board gets completely wiped out, or a top 20 talent at another position slips to #58, all signs point to upgrading the safety spot. @xwalker compiled a list of the Cowboys' pre-draft visitors, and the safety position has the highest amount of players that fall within striking distance of #58: Rapp, CGJ, Thornhill, and Abram were all visits and have a chance to be available at that pick. Another reason why I believe they go S is because they went DL heavy in free agency this year. Additionally, many of the DL they've looked at are guys expected to be available around #90 and later.

Garrett and Stephen both said in their pre-draft press conference that they're seeking a safety that's versatile enough to play down or back deep. Three traits that Stephen reiterated in the press conference:

1. Versatility.
2. Ball Skills.
3. Tackling.

Best Case: S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Versatility
Ball Skills
Tackling
He'd be the most dynamic safety this team's had since Roy Williams. He can play man, zone, slot, free, strong. You name it. He's twitchy, a ballhawk, a hitter, and always in attack mode. There isn't a better fit at #58. Savage or Adderley check off those boxes and would be great picks as well.

Worst Case: CB Isaiah Johnson, Houston
Kris Richard has had several wet dreams to the thought of us drafting him. He's got great traits, but went to the Mike Jenkins school of tackling and is extremely raw. I don't want a project at #58. Joejuan Williams and Lonnie Johnson are two other Richard archetypes at CB that I think would be reaches here, and wouldn't see a lot of playing time in 2019.

Prediction: S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Florida
Four safeties check off the three boxes that Stephen listed. CGJ, Savage, Adderley and Thornhill. That's also the order I have them. It's anyone's guess as to what safeties will be available at #58, but I'm hoping I'm higher on CGJ than most teams are, causing him to be available at 58.

#90:
This is where it gets interesting. If they go S at #58, you're likely to see a DL or CB here. Going back to the pre-draft visitors list, there are several DL prospects that can go around #90, plus or minus a round: Trysten Hill, Jaylon Ferguson, Gerald Willis, Kingsley Keke, Christian Miller, and John Cominsky. They've also taken a look at Maxx Crosby, Ben Banogu, LJ Collier, Charles Omenihu, Daniel Wise, and Daylon Mack. That's a ton of mid-round DL prospects.

Best Case: DE Zach Allen, Boston College
There's probably less than a 10% chance of this happening. But he's Tyrone Crawford reincarnated, and if you can get that at #90, you take it. Marinelli loves a beefy RE on run downs that you can kick inside on passing downs.

Worst Case: Any RB not named Josh Jacobs or David Montgomery
An insurance policy at #90 seems like a big waste. RB2 is a need, but you can address it in the 4th or later.

Prediction: CB Isaiah Johnson, Houston or CB Joejuan Williams, Vanderbilt
Is it cheating if I list two players? I feel that Kris Richard is going to get his archetype in this draft, it's only a question of what round will it be. I think it will be in the 3rd since these are two players Richard is enamored with, and neither player would last another 38 picks (good chance they're both gone before #90 too). Williams has the better tape, but ran in the 4.6's. Johnson is a SPARQ darling, but as mentioned above, is really green. I'd feel much better taking one of them at 90 as opposed to 58.

#128:
DT Daniel Wise, Kansas
With the amount of time they spent looking at mid-round DL prospects, I think the 4th is a prime spot for a DL to be selected. Whoever is the highest DL remaining on their board goes here. Wise seems like the kind of D-lineman the Cowboys would have interest in. Was miscast in the wrong scheme in college, and they see a good scheme fit here.

#136:
DE John Cominsky, Charleston
Marcus Mosher said that if Cominsky is available in the 4th, he's a lock to be drafted by DAL. He said that so matter of fact, that I believe he has some good intel so I'm rolling with it.

#165:
RB Trayveon Williams, Texas A&M
They've made it known they want depth behind Zeke.

#241:
LB Cole Holcomb, UNC
Since 2012, the Cowboys have drafted 8 LB's in the fourth round or later. This seems like a prime spot for them to draft an LB with Wilson's departure, and Sean Lee/Joe Thomas set to be UFA's next season.

Summary:
2) S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
3) CB Isaiah Johnson/Joejuan Williams
4) DT Daniel Wise
4) DE John Cominsky
5) RB Trayveon Williams
7) LB Cole Holcomb
 

gmoney112

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As far as visits, it looks like Dallas was a little ahead of the curve vs. public sentiment. I know going into the draft season, I was largely thinking this draft being deep in DL meant it was probably going to be a lineman that fell and ended up being BPA.

As the chips started to fall though, it looks like we're probably a bit out of range. A talented DT or something being the best prospect at 58, which I thought was the best route initially, now looks like it probably won't be. And don't force it.

Still could be. I don't think it will be though, and we went ahead and saw that coming, bringing in a lot of safeties which could bring good value and definitely be in contention for BPA for us. So, they had a pretty good approach with realistic foresight.

Someone falling and being a steal is still a possibility. We have two 4ths and reasonable trade partners in the trade value range. Could be for a safety, but definitely could also be for someone else.

Certainly looks like S is the value though. I haven't followed this draft as much as I did previously, but I like the Chauncey guy too.

I like this draft. I also hadn't heard of Wise until a few weeks ago until CalPoly mentioned him. I think he's a definite target in the 4th, just like Armstrong. We have plenty of tape on him from watching Armstrong last year too. I also think this is a pretty realistic approach, the 3-4-4 picks are likely to align with some combination of DL and CB (and TE) being the picks in value. I have no idea in what order, as it could be this or Allen/Hill in the 3rd and CB in the 4th, etc. But, future "expected value" could definitely be someone like Johnson in the 3rd, if there's just a dropoff in talent between 3rd and 4th round CBs (which is likely in the NFL nowadays and value of CBs with nickel/3CB alignments the norm and teams taking guys with talent sooner than they used to), or if there just isn't a big difference between expected DL in the 3rd-4th rounds.

If you had told me that a week before the draft, two DBs could realistically represent BPA for us with our top two picks, I would have been skeptical. But, that could very well work out to be the case. The DL talent ended up being a bit more top heavy than we thought, but it is pretty deep in the middle rounds. Not the best case scenario (as a truly higher value DT making it to 58 is statistically improbable), but in the way teams value positions and draft trends, could work out pretty well for us.

TE is a real wildcard. Personally, I think we'd be more likely to target a TE in combination with CB/DT/DL, and i'm sure they've probably played around with who's expected to be there, with one of those 3-4-4 picks. There seems to be a couple of mid round TEs that might pan out, I think it's possible we take one instead of a 2nd DL. Maybe, maybe not. That's just my opinion. With Witten here, and Jarwin showing up in the pass game + Schulz being in his 2nd year, it might also be prudent to see how they develop with a limited amount of snaps to go around instead of rolling the dice on a mid-round TE. We'll also have our premium picks next year, and some cap to work with. DL as a fallback if you don't really think a TE that's there will be much in the NFL is definitely fine with me.

I was also thinking we would target a dude with speed who could be versatile in 4th, return duties + future slot, mismatches etc. but WR room is pretty full, and I think that's a big reason Austin was retained as he'll probably be delegated to those duties next year. He had some pretty good returns later in the year. Backup RB could also be a possibility for this type of player since we need depth anyway, but I think this is probably the smart approach since the draft just isn't really looking like the speed slot WR/backup RB is going to be a great value pick where we would really take them over alternative positions/players. Trayveon is likely a possibility, he's had a lot of production and had almost 50 catches the last two years, with enough juice to do some of the things we'd want. I'd imagine later round guys are being looked at pretty hard, wouldn't be surprised at all to see us target a high priority UDFA at the position either and develop them on the Practice Squad. It's basically wide open.

So, pretty good predictions.
 

timb2

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My final guess that I have posted on another thread.

2-Jace Sternburner TE Texas A&M
3-Alex Mattison RB Boise State
4-Dre Greenlaw OLB Arkansas
4-John Cominskey DT Charleston
5-Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR North Carolina
7-Derrek Thomas S Baylor
 

cowboyec

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2.Juan Thornhill,S-Virginia
3.Trysten Hill,DT-Ucf
4.Anthony Nelson,DE-Iowa
4.Isaiah Johnson,CB-Houston
5.Mike Weber,RB-Ohio St
7.Stanley Morgan,WR-Nebraska
 

JBell

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Inspired by @Risen Star, here are my mocks in previous years. As you can see, I'm really good at predicting who Dallas drafts, getting 2 players (4 if you count Jahad Thomas and George Bryan signing as UDFA's) right across four drafts. Lol. At least I've been mocking them solid players.

2018:
No mock. Blame grad school.

https://cowboyszone.com/threads/my-2017-mock-taking-stephens-words-at-face-value.376641/
Got the positions right, but the players wrong.
2017:
1. DE TJ Watt
2. CB Fabian Moreau
3. FS Marcus Williams
4. CB Shaquille Griffin
6. TE Eric Saubert
7. WR Chad Williams
7. RB Jahad Thomas

2016:
No mock.

2015:
1. RB Melvin Gordon
2. LB Eric Kendricks
3. CB Josh Shaw
4. DE Frank Clark
7. OT Chaz Green
7. WR Kaelin Clay

2014:
No mock.

2013:
Only did the first four rounds.
1. S Kenny Vaccaro
2. OT Terron Armstead
3. OG Justin Pugh
4. RB Joseph Randle

2012:
1. DL Michael Brockers
2. C Peter Konz
3. WR T.Y. Hilton
4. CB Ron Brooks
6. LB Emmanuel Acho
7. TE George Bryan
 

Beaker42

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My final guess that I have posted on another thread.

2-Jace Sternburner TE Texas A&M
3-Alex Mattison RB Boise State
4-Dre Greenlaw OLB Arkansas
4-John Cominskey DT Charleston
5-Anthony Ratliff-Williams WR North Carolina
7-Derrek Thomas S Baylor
That draft is almost enough to make me commit hari kari. It would go down as our worst draft ever.
 
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