Pro Football Focus grades after 2 games

[kumizi]

This is too small a sample size to make anything of PFF grades. If you look at grades over a much longer sample (multiple seasons), they will usually aline with who is good and who isn't. Even then it isn't perfect.

grades for a 2 game sample size are almost irrelevant.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I would suggest reading how PFF grades.

You mean hiring independent, non-vetted contractors to grade games within 30 minutes after they end? I'm pretty well aware of how PFF grades.

You're discussing a handful of plays out of the 101 snaps he's had so far. How did he perform on the rest of those?[/QUOTE[

Well, he's getting consistent pressure, and he's standing his ground against the run, and he's getting production, and he hasn't had any penalties to my knowledge... so I think he's playing pretty damn good

 

[beware_d-ware]

This will be a leverage tools when it comes time for s new contract

Derek Wolfe said in a radio interview that players use their PFF grades to negotiate contracts. Very informative.

 

[Roadtrip635]

I think alot of Zekes impact is decided during the week when D coordinators are having to game plan and adjust around the threat that he is. Then on Sunday our QB has the good fortune of defenses always having to account for Zeke.

I believe you though, hes not off to a roaring start and there probably are close to 20 rbs who have had more of a statistical impact. However, 37 sounds like alot to me.

Dont get me wrong I like PFF and appreciate the guys on here that break it down, but sometimes stats don't tell the whole story.

You're right, stats never tell the whole story, only the part of the story and only the part you want people to hear. Zeke's low ranking isn't entirely or even mostly on Zeke, it's a product of this entire offense, from the each OL, QB, WRs TEs and coaches.

Mahomes is tearing it up right now, but how well would he be doing if we took away Hill, Watkins, Kelce and Andy Reid and left him with Hunt and Scott Linehan. I'm guessing his production would look very different. It's a team sport, even great players can't do it alone. It's sports, people have a hard time being objective, especially about their own team or pet players.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

You mean hiring independent, non-vetted contractors to grade games within 30 minutes after they end? I'm pretty well aware of how PFF grades.

If you want feel free to share your grades for every player in the league and we'll judge those.

 

[beware_d-ware]

You're right, stats never tell the whole story, only the part of the story and only the part you want people to hear. Zeke's low ranking isn't entirely or even mostly on Zeke, it's a product of this entire offense, from the each OL, QB, WRs TEs and coaches.

Mahomes is tearing it up right now, but how well would he be doing if we took away Hill, Watkins, Kelce and Andy Reid and left him with Hunt and Scott Linehan. I'm guessing his production would look very different. It's a team sport, even great players can't do it alone. It's sports, people have a hard time being objective, especially about their own team or pet players.

Heck, look what switching coordinators did from Byron. From benched FS to stud corner - it literally saved his career and all that changed was his position coach. Players are so much a product of the team and the environment around them.

If you want feel free to share your grades for every player in the league and we'll judge those.

I'm not arrogant enough to presume that I know what every player in the league is doing on every single play.

 

[Roadtrip635]

This is too small a sample size to make anything of PFF grades. If you look at grades over a much longer sample (multiple seasons), they will usually aline with who is good and who isn't. Even then it isn't perfect.

grades for a 2 game sample size are almost irrelevant.

Pretty much, any team that was fortunate to play the Bills or Cards instead of the Rams or Chiefs are going to look much different those first couple weeks.

 

[FTWayne]

second game

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'm not arrogant enough to presume that I know what every player in the league is doing on every single play.

Yeah.

 

[beware_d-ware]

Yeah.

What I'm saying is I don't know. PFF doesn't know either. Even the coaches calling the plays sometimes don't know (see that Derek Wolfe video). Only one claims to know what they're talking about and charges $200/yr for it.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

What I'm saying is I don't know. PFF doesn't know either. Even the coaches calling the plays sometimes don't know (see that Derek Wolfe video). Only one claims to know what they're talking about and charges $200/yr for it.

I'm not saying they're perfect because they are not.

They're going to make mistakes just like Derek Wolfe has pointed out.

But they're the only impartial grading system that we as fans have available.

And generally speaking at the end of the season their grades support the premise of whom the best players are for the most part– And conversely who the worst players are.

In addition they go through the trouble of watching every single player in every single game... That's an incredible undertaking... And I would bet that any fan that goes through the PFF training as far how to watch a game and grade the players would come up with grades that aren't far off from what PFF is generating now.

 

[jterrell]

Here are some of their top guys on defense:

Jones #2 CB
Brown #14 CB
Law #18 DE
LVE #12 LB
Smith #33 LB
Ross #4 DT
Taco #28 DE

Daniel Ross has played 28% of the snaps, lol.
This scoring is terrible.
Ross has 3 tackles but one was a forced fumble. Likely grading that one play heavily skewed the system.

Crawford whom they rate below starting level has 5 tackles and has played 73% of the plays.
DLaw has 9 tackles and 2 sacks.

Ross has the 7th most snaps among DL for Dallas. They only had 7 active guys last week.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Derek Wolfe said in a radio interview that players use their PFF grades to negotiate contracts. Very informative.

Agents are always going to use any advantage they can to squeeze more money out. It's like using the ProBowl when negotiating a contract. It sounds impressive until you realize, the only reason that player went to the ProBowl is because the 6-7 guys ahead of him decided not to play.

 

[jterrell]

I'm not saying they're perfect because they are not.

They're going to make mistakes just like Derek Wolfe has pointed out.

But they're the only impartial grading system that we as fans have available.

And generally speaking at the end of the season their grades support the premise of whom the best players are for the most part– And conversely who the worst players are.

In addition they go through the trouble of watching every single player in every single game... That's an incredible undertaking... And I would bet that any fan that goes through the PFF training as far how to watch a game and grade the players would come up with grades that aren't far off from what PFF is generating now.

Ultimately I agree with you on the impartiality.
I simply disagree on the accuracy of the system.
They are not using a system that is very honest to the ACTUAL Games as a WHOLE.
Scoring Daniel Ross the 2nd best DT to this point is hilariously bad.
I'm shocked he has enough snaps to even qualify for a grade.
It's the obvious issue with per play scoring.
More rest between plays certainly should allow better performance during those plays.

It's the old Hambrick rule. Back up has higher YPC because he is getting 1/3 the work and defensive attention.
Promote him to starter and his numbers go to pot.

 

[beware_d-ware]

I'm not saying they're perfect because they are not.

They're going to make mistakes just like Derek Wolfe has pointed out.

But they're the only impartial grading system that we as fans have available.

And generally speaking at the end of the season their grades support the premise of whom the best players are for the most part– And conversely who the worst players are.

In addition they go through the trouble of watching every single player in every single game... That's an incredible undertaking... And I would bet that any fan that goes through the PFF training as far how to watch a game and grade the players would come up with grades that aren't far off from what PFF is generating now.

PFF is pure garbage in, garbage out. They are getting freelancers on their couches, watching broadcast angles, to make snap judgements on a play while the game goes on. How can a casual fan who sees a play for 3 seconds tell if a DE got controlled by the blocker at the line or if his job was to set the edge? He doesn't. Dude's got no idea. Then it's a mark on a sheet, 30 seconds later, and it's off to the next one. Mid week, they have an All-22 review, where the amateurs repeat the same process with a different view and no more insight than before. They average those two numbers up and bam, you've got some grades.

They end up with a very official-looking table of numbers, and there's a tendency for people to take anything with enough numbers or decimals as scientific certainty without really understanding the process behind it (the term in the science world is "garbage in, gospel out"). But look at how they get to the "74.1, #17 edge rusher" type of claims, and it's really just an amalgamation of amateurs spitballing hundreds of guesses

 

[MichaelWinicki]

PFF is pure garbage in, garbage out. They are getting freelancers on their couches, watching broadcast angles, to make snap judgements on a play while the game goes on. How can a casual fan who sees a play for 3 seconds tell if a DE got controlled by the blocker at the line or if his job was to set the edge? He doesn't. Dude's got no idea. Then it's a mark on a sheet, 30 seconds later, and it's off to the next one. Mid week, they have an All-22 review, where the amateurs repeat the same process with a different view and no more insight than before. They average those two numbers up and bam, you've got some grades.

They end up with a very official-looking table of numbers, and there's a tendency for people to take anything with enough numbers or decimals as scientific certainty without really understanding the process behind it (the term in the science world is "garbage in, gospel out"). But look at how they get to the "74.1, #17 edge rusher" type of claims, and it's really just an amalgamation of amateurs spitballing hundreds of guesses

When you have your scoring system together you let us know...

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Ultimately I agree with you on the impartiality.
I simply disagree on the accuracy of the system.
They are not using a system that is very honest to the ACTUAL Games as a WHOLE.
Scoring Daniel Ross the 2nd best DT to this point is hilariously bad.
I'm shocked he has enough snaps to even qualify for a grade.
It's the obvious issue with per play scoring.
More rest between plays certainly should allow better performance during those plays.

It's the old Hambrick rule. Back up has higher YPC because he is getting 1/3 the work and defensive attention.
Promote him to starter and his numbers go to pot.

Again, until a better system is offered... I think they're better than nothing.

 

[bpfred]

All true but there have also been examples pointed out where PFF has gotten something way wrong.

It's why I don't put a ton of value in their ratings and grades. Interesting? Sure. I'll read what they have to say from time to time, etc. But having real value? Not really IMO.

What better grading system is available to fans? They grade every player on every play. They've said they use former NFL GMs and Scouts to grade.

Watching a game on TV only gives you impressions--you cannot grade players based on watching a game in person or on TV. What are the qualifications of the people on this board, relative to the qualifications of the people at PFF giving the grades? There are some really wild statements, and extreme overreactions, on this board.

Each of us will place whatever weight they want on what the see/read. Personally, I place several orders of magnitude more on PFF grades, than the stuff I read from most posters here.

Out of curiosity, if you have them, where are the examples where PFF has gotten something way wrong? And what percentage of total players on total plays do those examples make up?

 

[jterrell]

Again, until a better system is offered... I think they're better than nothing.

I'll offer a system here.

Take their grade as is: i.e. 77.2 Call it a raw grade or raw PPG per play grade.
77.2 x 2 x .% of snaps. = EPG. Effective player grade.

Why?

Player A:
Current grade: 77.2
Plays 33% of snaps.

Player B:
Current grade: 74.8
Plays 80% of snaps.

Which player is having a better performance for his team? A bigger impact on games? Deserves more money?

In my system the grades become.
Player A:50.9
Player B:119.68

This is all simple math but at some point it should jive with real world stuff.
To master their grading a player should simple ask out when tired or on a bad match up to avoid bad plays.
That's not congruent with real football success.

 

[diefree666]

Again, until a better system is offered... I think they're better than nothing.

and you are wrong. I have never bought into this idea that garbage is better than nothing.