Projecting Dak's New Deal

[TwentyOne]

Some of yall about to be mad...Instead of reacting...read the article...it's well balanced.

https://247sports.com/nfl/dallas-co...with-the-Cowboys-at-retail-pricing-129015429/

What rubbish.

 

[nobody]

Holy ****

I believe in Dak and support him, but these goofy statistics are just ridiculous. Why since 94? And only tied in the 4th?

It's like "he's the best QB since 94 while being tied in the 4th quarter while holding his right ear and doing the hokey pokey."

These are arbitrarily decided "stats" that are so picked to make someone look better than they are.

Again, I think Dak will be good enough to get the job done. I just have to laugh my butt off with these ridiculous attempts.

 

[HungryLion]

I believe in Dak and support him, but these goofy statistics are just ridiculous. Why since 94? And only tied in the 4th?

It's like "he's the best QB since 94 while being tied in the 4th quarter while holding his right ear and doing the hokey pokey."

These are arbitrarily decided "stats" that are so picked to make someone look better than they are.

Again, I think Dak will be good enough to get the job done. I just have to laugh my butt off with these ridiculous attempts.

There’s nothing arbitrary about them at all.
94 is when these stats started to be compiled.

There’s nothing arbitrary or cherry picked about looking at how a player plays, in the 4th quarter of close games. That’s crunch time in the NFL.

They aren’t the end all be all. But just because you don’t like the story they tell, doesn’t make them meaningless.

 

[nobody]

There’s nothing arbitrary about them at all.
94 is when these stats started to be compiled.

There’s nothing arbitrary or cherry picked about looking at how a player plays, in the 4th quarter of close games. That’s crunch time in the NFL.

They aren’t the end all be all. But just because you don’t like the story they tell, doesn’t make them meaningless.

No, not "close" games. TIED games. It was specific to just being tied in the 4th.

And like I said, I support Dak and think he has what it takes, so your commend about me liking the story they tell or not is irrelevant.

How often are games tied in the 4th? A more relevant stat would be "close games, which could be considered a 7 point or less difference"

 

[HungryLion]

No, not "close" games. TIED games. It was specific to just being tied in the 4th.

And like I said, I support Dak and think he has what it takes, so your commend about me liking the story they tell or not is irrelevant.

How often are games tied in the 4th? A more relevant stat would be "close games, which could be considered a 7 point or less difference"

You must have missed the several other posts all over the board most by @percyhoward that also showed Dak’s stats in games within 8 points during the 4th quarter and OT.

People posting those stats are part of a greater discussion about Dak’s play during crunch time that has been happening on the board for months now.

 

[nobody]

You must have missed the several other posts all over the board most by @percyhoward that also showed Dak’s stats in games within 8 points during the 4th quarter and OT.

People posting those stats are part of a greater discussion about Dak’s play during crunch time that has been happening on the board for months now.

And that's relevant to my point how? I was pointing out the ridiculousness of this one thing.

 

[HungryLion]

And that's relevant to my point how? I was pointing out the ridiculousness of this one thing.

But it’s not ridiculous. That’s the thing. It’s posting a stat Stats aren’t arbitrary. They are just one of many tools to evaluate a player.

 

[nobody]

But it’s not ridiculous. That’s the thing. It’s posting a stat Stats aren’t arbitrary. They are just one of many tools to evaluate a player.

Stats can be arbitrary if too many stipulations for it are given at once.

 

[QuincyCarterEra]

I believe in Dak and support him, but these goofy statistics are just ridiculous. Why since 94? And only tied in the 4th?

It's like "he's the best QB since 94 while being tied in the 4th quarter while holding his right ear and doing the hokey pokey."

These are arbitrarily decided "stats" that are so picked to make someone look better than they are.

Again, I think Dak will be good enough to get the job done. I just have to laugh my butt off with these ridiculous attempts.

1994 is when pro football reference is the latest it has this data archived.

It's not just the 4th it's OT and the 4th? When the game is on the line in crunch time.

there's times when the cherry picked stats are ridiculous, this is far from one of them.

 

[percyhoward]

How often are games tied in the 4th? A more relevant stat would be "close games, which could be considered a 7 point or less difference"

Yeah, that tweet was obviously taking advantage of a freak number, and we want to know how he performs in one-score games, not just tie games. Another problem with his sample is the 50-attempt minimum. There are 27 players with more than 100 attempts in that situation, so he could've easily cut it off at 100 attempts, but that would've left Dak out. The idea should be to get 20-40 players (or as close to 32 players as possible) and use a good round number as the cutoff point. Either that or just take the 32 players with the most attempts, which is probably the most honest way.

I'd just take the last three seasons, so that everybody who's played from 2016-18 has a similar amount of attempts.

Here's 4th qtr/OT margin 7 points or less, 2016-18
(out of the 32 QB with the most attempts)
1 Brady 117.8
2 Mahomes 112.3
3 Wilson 110.6
4 Roethlisberger 106.6
5 Prescott 106.4

 

[buybuydandavis]

But, unlike a lot of first contract QB's, he has been a tremendous bargain and been vastly underpaid so to make this easier to justify, I will amortize the entire deal including his first three seasons, which is one of the best QB deals of all time.

Sunk profits.

You compensate a guy for what you think he will do, not what he has done in the past.

 

[buybuydandavis]

One year extension, franchise value, pushing half the money into this year.

Dak locks in some of his soon to be big money. We get Dak for another year and he doesn't hold out.
Win - Win.

 

[nobody]

1994 is when pro football reference is the latest it has this data archived.

It's not just the 4th it's OT and the 4th? When the game is on the line in crunch time.

there's times when the cherry picked stats are ridiculous, this is far from one of them.

This particular one is just when the game is tied. Again, how often does that come up?

 

[nobody]

Yeah, that tweet was obviously taking advantage of a freak number, and we want to know how he performs in one-score games, not just tie games. Another problem with his sample is the 50-attempt minimum. There are 27 players with more than 100 attempts in that situation, so he could've easily cut it off at 100 attempts, but that would've left Dak out. The idea should be to get 20-40 players (or as close to 32 players as possible) and use a good round number as the cutoff point. Either that or just take the 32 players with the most attempts, which is probably the most honest way.

I'd just take the last three seasons, so that everybody who's played from 2016-18 has a similar amount of attempts.

Here's 4th qtr/OT margin 7 points or less, 2016-18
(out of the 32 QB with the most attempts)
1 Brady 117.8
2 Mahomes 112.3
3 Wilson 110.6
4 Roethlisberger 106.6
5 Prescott 106.4

And 106.4 isn't shoddy at all though. It's good! But that's not cherry picked and still shows positive for Dak without ridiculous stipulations.

 

[Zekeats]

Been saying all alone, I expect his deal to come in around $25M. What's interesting is 2-3 years from now, his deal could actually be a bargain based on the early projection of Goff, Wilson and Mahomes deals. Word is either one could sign deals close to $40M per year within the next couple years.

Mahomes might get 40 cause he's special and worth it. The others are meh.

 

[percyhoward]

And 106.4 isn't shoddy at all though. It's good! But that's not cherry picked and still shows positive for Dak without ridiculous stipulations.

Here's 4th qtr/OT, but with the margin at 8 points or less, which actually makes more sense.
1 Mahomes 112.3
2 Wilson 111.2
3 Brady 110.4
4 Prescott 108.3
5 Roethlisberger 108.3

 

[Hawkeye0202]

For those thinking a Dak deal will be less than $20M should keep one thing in mine. Remember the general thinking now is DLaw deal will likely be the range of $19-21M. Do you honestly expect a three year starting QB with Dak's resume to take LESS than a DE?

 

[percyhoward]

This particular one is just when the game is tied. Again, how often does that come up?

To answer your question, from 2016-18 only 16% of all pass attempts late in one-score games happened when the game was tied. So that tweet is ignoring 84% of all passes late in close games.

 

[HungryLion]

Stats can be arbitrary if too many stipulations for it are given at once.

That’s why I tried providing context for you based on the discussions that have been happening on the board...... but you said it was meaningless.

 

[DanA]

So you're saying it would actually be only sign a 5 yr extension?
Ahh that's not remotely the same.

6 years 140m was the ceiling inclusive of 2019.

I don’t know where the confusion lies, I outlined the details in my original post.