Projecting Randy Gregory in 2015

[TrailBlazer]

Gregory 7 sacks minimum

 

[JBell]

Smith was a 3-4 OLB. Gregory isnt. Not comparable.

Please, they're both rushing off the edge. And I'd bet Smith got some of his sacks with his hand in the dirt.

 

[jnday]

This is what I've been cautioning folks on since he was drafted. Rookie DE's don't normally produce. And with Hardy out for 10 games our pass rush will struggle. Hopefully not as bad as last year but it's going to be close.

It is rare for any defensive rookie to have much of an impact, but I read all these posts about the massive upgrades on defense. These rookies may have a huge impact in a couple of years, but these high expectations are not realistic for the production that they will have next season. The rookies will be a liability in many situations. That is expected and normal .

 

[SacramentoKing]

yep even Ware only had 8 his 1st season

 

[Fletch]

This is what I've been cautioning folks on since he was drafted. Rookie DE's don't normally produce. And with Hardy out for 10 games our pass rush will struggle. Hopefully not as bad as last year but it's going to be close.

You know what Marty McFly said? "History is gonna change!"

 

[Galian Beast]

I'm a lot less interested in sacks than I am in pressures. Sacks don't always tell the whole story. A lot of times sacks are just being in the right place at the right time or a blown assignment or the QB holding the ball for a long time.

They can come in bunches as well.

What I'm looking for is consistent pressure.

 

[sideon]

7 sacks, 2 ff, 2 int & 10 qb hurries.

 

[big dog cowboy]

If he were to start all 16 games, I'd be surprised by less than 8 sacks to be honest. I think the only thing that will prevent him from that is the fact that we will rotate so heavily with all the guys we have at DE.

Well, we have to keep him fresh for the playoffs.

 

[Bowdown27]

7 sacks.

 

[JohnsKey19]

I think Hardys availability will be a huge factor in what Gregory can produce as a pass rusher. Hardy will make things so much easier for the entire DL, especially for the DL right next to him and whoever is subbing behind him at RDE. I'm going to predict 8-10 sacks for Gregory. If Hardy produces as expected over 12+ games, those two guys will give the pass rush a much needed jolt.

 

[theogt]

The real question is how many snaps he'll get. If he gets 500+, he'll do fine. If it's 200-300, then it's a different story. Since 2007, below are the list of rookie 4-3 defensive ends with at least 500 snaps in their rookie season.

E. Ansah - 9
J. Sheard - 9
A. Clayborn - 8
D. Wolfe - 6
C. Jones - 6
R. Quinn - 6
L. Houston - 5
C. Long - 4
D. Harvey - 4
F. Alexander - 3
L. Jackson - 3
C. Jordan - 1

 

[AdamJT13]

The real question is how many snaps he'll get. If he gets 500+, he'll do fine. If it's 200-300, then it's a different story. Since 2007, below are the list of rookie 4-3 defensive ends with at least 500 snaps in their rookie season.

E. Ansah - 9
J. Sheard - 9
A. Clayborn - 8
D. Wolfe - 6
C. Jones - 6
R. Quinn - 6
L. Houston - 5
C. Long - 4
D. Harvey - 4
F. Alexander - 3
L. Jackson - 3
C. Jordan - 1

If we're talking sacks, then all that really matters is how many snaps he gets against the pass.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

To me it's not the number of sacks, but the number of snaps per sack that's important.

100 snaps per sack would be a decent season for a rookie.

If he did better than say 75 snaps per sacks– that would be excellent.

 

[jobberone]

If we're talking sacks, then all that really matters is how many snaps he gets against the pass.

On the nosey! Doesn't matter whether 5, 6, 7, or 9 technique; snaps = pressure. It just depends on where a player spikes in that defense.

 

[jobberone]

To me it's not the number of sacks, but the number of snaps per sack that's important.

100 snaps per sack would be a decent season for a rookie.

If he did better than say 75 snaps per sacks– that would be excellent.

Certain players are going to spike in certain defenses predictably when used a certain way based on snaps. You can use snaps and sacks which works. I like pressure and snaps as pressure gives more information. You can look at the entire population with sacks per snap but you're going to be led back to spikes of certain players. Most of the rest fad into the background noise.

 

[theogt]

If we're talking sacks, then all that really matters is how many snaps he gets against the pass.

Fair point, but it doesn't change much. Here are the rookies with at least 300 pass rush snaps.

B. Irvin - 10
E. Ansah - 9
J. Sheard - 9
G. Adams - 9
A. Clayborn - 8
D. Wolfe - 6
C. Jones - 6
R. Quinn - 6
J. Anderson - 6
D. Harvey - 4
F. Alexander - 3
C. Long - 3
B. Robinson - 3
C. Jordan - 1
L. Jackson - 1

Average = 5.6 sacks

 

[AdamJT13]

Fair point, but it doesn't change much. Here are the rookies with at least 300 pass rush snaps.

B. Irvin - 10
E. Ansah - 9
J. Sheard - 9
G. Adams - 9
A. Clayborn - 8
D. Wolfe - 6
C. Jones - 6
R. Quinn - 6
J. Anderson - 6
D. Harvey - 4
F. Alexander - 3
C. Long - 3
B. Robinson - 3
C. Jordan - 1
L. Jackson - 1

Average = 5.6 sacks

I was just referring to Gregory getting pass-rush snaps, such as if he gets fewer than 500 total snaps but 300 or more snaps on pass plays. Depending on how much we have Hardy, Gregory could be more of a situational pass-rusher this season before he grows into being an every-down player.

 

[DC Cowboy]

I feel like there are a lot of folks who are excited that Dallas landed Randy Gregory at such a low cost. I am one of those people. However, I feel like there is a lot of tire-pumping around Gregory's 2015 production and I think people may need to take a step back on that front. Gregory is a highly-touted rookie, but even highly-touted rookies struggle to put together big pressure numbers in year one. And while a sack doesn't tell the entire story in terms of what kind of pressure a player brings, it gives you a close-enough look in terms of sample size.

In the table below I've taken 1st and 2nd round rushers selected in the last 3 drafts, sorted by year draft and then by year-one sacks. I also included a column with Football Outsiders Sackseer Metrics for each player, which is a score and then a projection of their 5 year sack total in the league. It seems like a 6-8 sack year one performance from Gregory will be one to get excited about.

I see your point here but how many of these guys go against a Tyron Smith every day? That helps also.