QB contract explosion have potential to disintegrate league parity

[Little Jr]

I didn’t say there wasn’t risk. And I wouldn’t let Dak walk. We finally found a solid backup we can win with.

Are you saying we finally found a solid back up in Dak that we can win with?

 

[Diehardblues]

Are you saying we finally found a solid back up in Dak that we can win with?

Yes, in the event our starter goes down. If he’d taken us all the way despite his passing flaws then there wouldn’t be any question.

Dak is probably better than the bottom tier of QB’s and why he falls in the middle statistically in passing. But he’s benefitting from a mostly star studded cast surrounding him.

Imagine our offense if we had a QB as talented as our RB and WR.Thats what we had in both of our championship runs in 70’s and 90’s.

 

[Little Jr]

Yes, in the event our starter goes down. If he’d taken us all the way despite his passing flaws then there wouldn’t be any question.

1. Wow lol. 2. Taken us all the way? When?

 

[doomsday9084]

Good thread.

The NBA has a similar issue. There are max contracts in that league and they are guaranteed. If you have a top 5 player on a max contract, you are worlds ahead of a team that has the 30th best player on a max deal. If anything, these third tier stars making max money makes teams non competitive. The teams that win have guys who are more than worth their contracts.

The NFL is quickly going to become that with these monster QB deals. Once they get big enough, you will see three types of teams:
A: Teams with top QB's on big deals and little money going everywhere else
B: Teams with mediocre QB's on small deals and big money going everywhere else
C: Teams with mediocre QB's on big deals and little money going everywhere else

The "C" teams are going to be the worst of the group and I worry that is the direction the Cowboys are headed.

At some point, teams are just going to stop with these QB deals. They will figure that just giving a back up $1m per year and dividing out $30m to everyone else gives you a better team than giving a thoroughly mediocre QB $30m per year.

 

[sean10mm]

In 2018, 14 of the top cap hit contracts in the NFL were for QBs. In 2011 only 6 were. I don't think there are over twice as many good QBs now than there were in 2011. So it looks like our intuition about more money going to QBs as a % of the cap has some truth to it.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/...backs-salary-cap-kirk-cousins-patrick-mahomes

 

[Beast_from_East]

First let me say I was never really a fan of league parity. I liked it when Dallas & San Fran were juggernauts who butted heads in championship games. Problem was rest of league wasn't having as much fun and growth was limited to these Super Teams and thus salary cap was instituted.

League parity allows teams to quickly pivot and make astonishing turn-arounds in 1-2 year period. For that reason NFL popularity has exploded since hard Salary Cap was implemented. That system worked as long as GMs created flexibility by only paying elite players elite money, signing starters to reasonable contracts and churning bottom third of roster on yearly basis.

However, that stable time period appears to be coming to end. What is happening now is middling QBs (non elite players) are commanding elite money within a limited hard salary cap structure. Meaning teams signing these middling QBs to monster contracts will lose the ability to retain core pieces at expense of retaining these middle of pack QBs. In other words, the opportunity cost of signing these non elite players to elite contracts will increase dramatically.

How I see NFL shaping up is few teams maybe 5 or so who will truly have elite QBs who will challenge for SB (like they always do). The middle of pack teams (paying monster QB contracts) can't out-depth the top teams any longer. And the bad teams will keep drafting QB early but will require time for them to develop.

Teams I see potentially in trouble are: Vikings (Cousins), 49ers (Garoppolo), Cowboys (Prescott), Lions (Stafford) and Raiders (Carr) and possibly Pitts (Big Ben). Following teams will soon be in trouble with this predicament: Chargers (Rivers) and Titans (Mariota).

The only silver lining for Dallas (if Dak gets $30 million year) is that he makes quantum leap as QB then contract is fine. If he doesn't, Cowboy will be consistently be bubble playoff team who gets bounced early in playoffs because they won't have depth of roster to off-set a more highly skilled team at QB.

I get your point, but every QB you mentioned from Cousins, Garoppolo, Stafford, Carr, Rivers, Mariota, Dak, all have the same thing in common...….they dont have any rings.

But then you list Big Ben? The dude has what, 2 rings already? How are you lumping Big Ben in with all these other QBs that haven't done jack but are getting paid the big bucks, kinda the whole point of your post. But Big Ben has already won rings. Just seems like an outlier and doesn't really belong in your post with all the other QBs.

 

[PA Cowboy Fan]

I get your point, but every QB you mentioned from Cousins, Garoppolo, Stafford, Carr, Rivers, Mariota, Dak, all have the same thing in common...….they dont have any rings.

But then you list Big Ben? The dude has what, 2 rings already? How are you lumping Big Ben in with all these other QBs that haven't done jack but are getting paid the big bucks, kinda the whole point of your post. But Big Ben has already won rings. Just seems like an outlier and doesn't really belong in your post with all the other QBs.

And Big Ben's a HOFer.

 

[Hadenough]

First let me say I was never really a fan of league parity. I liked it when Dallas & San Fran were juggernauts who butted heads in championship games. Problem was rest of league wasn't having as much fun and growth was limited to these Super Teams and thus salary cap was instituted.

League parity allows teams to quickly pivot and make astonishing turn-arounds in 1-2 year period. For that reason NFL popularity has exploded since hard Salary Cap was implemented. That system worked as long as GMs created flexibility by only paying elite players elite money, signing starters to reasonable contracts and churning bottom third of roster on yearly basis.

However, that stable time period appears to be coming to end. What is happening now is middling QBs (non elite players) are commanding elite money within a limited hard salary cap structure. Meaning teams signing these middling QBs to monster contracts will lose the ability to retain core pieces at expense of retaining these middle of pack QBs. In other words, the opportunity cost of signing these non elite players to elite contracts will increase dramatically.

How I see NFL shaping up is few teams maybe 5 or so who will truly have elite QBs who will challenge for SB (like they always do). The middle of pack teams (paying monster QB contracts) can't out-depth the top teams any longer. And the bad teams will keep drafting QB early but will require time for them to develop.

Teams I see potentially in trouble are: Vikings (Cousins), 49ers (Garoppolo), Cowboys (Prescott), Lions (Stafford) and Raiders (Carr) and possibly Pitts (Big Ben). Following teams will soon be in trouble with this predicament: Chargers (Rivers) and Titans (Mariota).

The only silver lining for Dallas (if Dak gets $30 million year) is that he makes quantum leap as QB then contract is fine. If he doesn't, Cowboy will be consistently be bubble playoff team who gets bounced early in playoffs because they won't have depth of roster to off-set a more highly skilled team at QB.

The only way people are gonna realize this is when Prescott gets signed and Dallas has to let players go.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Since I started watching the NFL the league has always claimed to have parity. I thought it was Pete Rozelle that came up with "any given Sunday" no later than 1970. How are you measuring parity? Is it by how many games the best teams win? Point differential, how many different teams win SBs, reach SBs, something else?

Also, while QB salaries are going up in nominal terms are they actually going up as a % of the cap? I actually think they should be but I don't know if they are. This year the QB franchise tag is is $24.8 mil, the 2nd highest tag is for DE at $17.1 mil. There's no way those values are right if you're basing the value of a player on how much impact he has on winning and losing. The structure of the game just make the QB far more important than any other position. This was always true but the rule change and emphasis on certain rules hasmade the QB even more important.

The teams with the best QBs always had a big advantage (not necessarily a decisive advantage) and it's more true now than it was 20-50 years ago. (yeah I'm old) Personally I liked the style of football from the 1980s because you could win with different styles. The Commanders won 3 SBs with a smashmouth run game, strong D, ok to good QBs. SF won with Jo Montana and the West Coast offense, the Giants won with LT a great D and a good balanced offense. The winning style has become more and more QB centric. That's why I see KC over the next decade as the most likely dominant team. (as long as they can add some good players that can avoid being thrown out of the league for beating up women and children) Perhaps theother teams will look at Mahomes film and come up with plans to force him to his weaknesses. OTOH they may look at the film and determine, "this guy is just bleeping good".

It is my belief that the only measurement that counts in the NFL is the Profitability. Owners put in the cap as a way of limiting the percentage of profits they pay out. They also saw it as a way to distribute the burden of costs IMO. They wanted to try and avoid situations where you had certain players breaking the bank and certain owners just going cheap on salaries and banking as much profit as they could. Unfortunately, we are back in a similar position around the league. You have teams who pay QBs ridiculous amounts of money and that is driving the price tag. I believe that its eventually going to create a bigger problem in the NFL but there will always be those who believe that "Pay The Man" is the way to go and there will always be those who believe that no player is worth that much money.

 

[Verdict]

First let me say I was never really a fan of league parity. I liked it when Dallas & San Fran were juggernauts who butted heads in championship games. Problem was rest of league wasn't having as much fun and growth was limited to these Super Teams and thus salary cap was instituted.

League parity allows teams to quickly pivot and make astonishing turn-arounds in 1-2 year period. For that reason NFL popularity has exploded since hard Salary Cap was implemented. That system worked as long as GMs created flexibility by only paying elite players elite money, signing starters to reasonable contracts and churning bottom third of roster on yearly basis.

However, that stable time period appears to be coming to end. What is happening now is middling QBs (non elite players) are commanding elite money within a limited hard salary cap structure. Meaning teams signing these middling QBs to monster contracts will lose the ability to retain core pieces at expense of retaining these middle of pack QBs. In other words, the opportunity cost of signing these non elite players to elite contracts will increase dramatically.

How I see NFL shaping up is few teams maybe 5 or so who will truly have elite QBs who will challenge for SB (like they always do). The middle of pack teams (paying monster QB contracts) can't out-depth the top teams any longer. And the bad teams will keep drafting QB early but will require time for them to develop.

Teams I see potentially in trouble are: Vikings (Cousins), 49ers (Garoppolo), Cowboys (Prescott), Lions (Stafford) and Raiders (Carr) and possibly Pitts (Big Ben). Following teams will soon be in trouble with this predicament: Chargers (Rivers) and Titans (Mariota).

The only silver lining for Dallas (if Dak gets $30 million year) is that he makes quantum leap as QB then contract is fine. If he doesn't, Cowboy will be consistently be bubble playoff team who gets bounced early in playoffs because they won't have depth of roster to off-set a more highly skilled team at QB.

I am not knocking your post. While I agree with your assessment, no one is forcing teams to over pay for average QBs. At some point trans have to back up and say hey we aren’t over paying for an average player.

If Brady is a $40 million dollar a year QB, some bottom feeding QB who can’t play should be getting the minimum rather than paying him $20M just because someone says hey that’s the market for a bad QB. That is just piss poor cap management.

Dak is a bit of an enigma. He wins. If you look at that, then he is a top 10QB. If you look at Dak on a bad day he appears to be fairly easily replaceable.

I’m not sure which QB Dak really is. I think he’s solid, if not spectacular. If we pay him $30m per year that’s a lot, but it won’t break our back, but we can’t pay everyone. We will have to cut a corner somewhere else.

 

[Verdict]

The only way people are gonna realize this is when Prescott gets signed and Dallas has to let players go.

Some people here have zero idea how the cap works.