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QB Rankings, tiers, and young QB's

Discussion in 'Fan Zone' started by CowboyRoy, Jan 16, 2020.

  1. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

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    For me, its not about throwing away every QB until you find one that is elite. I would take ANY QB in the first 3 tiers, pay him, and roll with him. Romo was there and good enough for me. I know some think you need an elite QB, but history shows that is not the case.

    Here is my current order up to 16:

    Tier 1. (Elite)
    1. Mahones
    2. Rogers
    3. Brady
    4. Brees
    5. Wilson

    Tier 2.
    6. Rothlisberger
    7. Jackson (somewhat of a gimmick QB. Needs a system completely designed for his running style)
    8. Watson

    Tier 3
    9. Stafford
    10.Garrapolo
    11. Dak
    12. Ryan
    13. Goff

    Tier 4.
    14. Wentz
    15. Cousins
    16. Rivers

    My QB theory is that you pay and roll with anyone in those top 3 tiers. I would also note that anyone in that third tier you could change around the order and they are generally in the same level of QB. Wentz I would put in the 3rd tier, but he is hurt too often. Rivers is on his last leg. I highlighted the guys in red that in a year or two will probably retire. I put the guys in blue that represent the youngest QB's.

    I would also note that I would NEVER stop drafting QB's and developing young QB's even if I had a franchise QB. Position is too important.
     
  2. Shake_Tiller

    Shake_Tiller Well-Known Member

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    This is a great post, and thank you for the perspective. And it is perspective. Being in the QB wilderness is extremely dangerous, as witness the Bears, for instance. We don't need to be casual about having a capable young QB.

    I actually think Brady is a Tier 2 QB, at best, given physical deterioration. But he has proven us wrong before. I also think Big Ben is a complete unknown. We'll have to see how he returns from injury.

    I would slot Prescott above Garrapalo, but your point is well taken -- the differences among the Tier 3 QBs are minimal -- which flavor of ice cream you like. I think Prescott has the best chance among them to ascend to a higher tier. I worry about longevity where Jackson and Watson are concerned -- Jackson because of his style of play and Watson because the Texans are letting him get beaten to death.

    I agree about drafting young QBs every year, or at least, most years. But folks have to understand this is a crap shoot. Jimmy Johnson was a great talent evaluator, and he spent a 1st round pick on Steve Walsh and a 4th round pick on Bill Musgrave. You have to be willing to accept some misses, but the position is too important to neglect.
     
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  3. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

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    I did the color coding because Dak is a QB that is young and rising with his experience, but you can also see that there are 3 QB's ahead of him that will be gone very shortly. So he will move up organically, once those 3 retire, automatically getting into the top 10 without doing anything. Then you have the guys in blue that 3 or 4 years down the line may also retire.

    But no doubt you have college guys like Burrows that will come in and get into that top 10 or even top 5.
     
  4. MarcusRock

    MarcusRock Well-Known Member

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    Agree with this. Brady is Tier 2. As for Watson, HE takes too many chances on his own while running. Garrapolo found out how bad an idea that was.
     
  5. Shinaoi

    Shinaoi Well-Known Member

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    Brady and Rodgers both have dropped off a bit.
     
  6. Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

    Oz-of-Cowboy-Country Well-Known Member

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    I would like to see you make a list of the QB's you think, we can get for under 28 million, and are capable of handling the load. AKA... the bus drivers you think can get it done.
     
  7. Shake_Tiller

    Shake_Tiller Well-Known Member

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    It astounds me how much some folks take Prescott for granted. There is an old saying about letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. Here is a young QB who has averaged 10 wins a season, who has thrown 97 TDs vs. 36 INTs, who has passed for nearly 16,000 yards, who has completed 66% of his passes, and who has a career 97.0 QB rating. These are remarkable numbers.

    McCarthy's history suggests he will help Prescott elevate his game. If that happens, the Cowboys will have a remarkable QB, indeed.
     
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  8. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

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    Anyone in the top 3 tiers I would pay and roll with. As far as 28 million. I highly doubt that anyone in the top 4 tiers, if signing a contract today, would get 28 million or less. Maybe Rivers on his last leg or a Brady wanting to help his team win with a lower salary.

    If you want a cheap QB, then roll the dice with a rookie. But you better trade up and get a top 3 pick. And even then you will be lucky if he develops into a top 10 guy. And in 5 years, you will probably have to pay him 40 million. No way of getting around it.
     
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  9. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

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    2 types:

    1. Those that loved Romo and simply hate to hate. Can never accept Dak because they have to admit they were wrong

    2. Those that are so stuck in the "Elite QB theory" that its all they think about when it comes to winning games. Probably younger guys that are a little naïve on the way the team concept works, QB development and QB play.
     
  10. CowboyRoy

    CowboyRoy Well-Known Member

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    Watson I did have reservations about. He is incredible with his legs and running around, but he is horrible with his timing. Almost cant run a normal offense with him. Holds the ball way too long. Cant stay in the pocket and fire the ball on time consistently.

    I know many don't like Brady because of his success, however, his oline took a big step back last year and his weapons took a hit as well. I think the lack of success of the offense was a prefect example of how even an elite QB's play goes downhill with a bad oline and limited weapons.
     
  11. DRella

    DRella Active Member

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    -Tier 1-

    Mahomes
    Wilson
    Jackson
    Watson
    Dak

    -Tier 2-

    Brady
    Rodgers
    Brees
    Rothlisberger
    Rivers

    -Tier 3-

    Goff
    Ryan
    Garroplo
    Wentz
    Stafford
    Cousins
    Winston
    Murray
    Mayfield

    My theory is those I stated in Tier 1 are the future of the NFL. Those in Tier 2 are the elder statesmen that in their prime would be better but have taken a step back. Tier 3 are your average QBs that have won nothing and definitely are average qbs but not going to put you over the top.
     
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  12. cowboygo

    cowboygo Well-Known Member

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    As much as it hurts to write this.. Wentz is deserving of being in the same tier as Dak. He did a lot with next to nothing this past year. We saw what happens to Dak without weapons and/or O-Line. Dak is exceptional with a good supporting cast, not to be seen as a knock on him. Wentz elevated his peers toward the end of the year. Saying all of this being a Dak guy.
     
  13. Hennessy_King

    Hennessy_King Well-Known Member

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    Dak is better than stafford and jimmy g. he's top 10 in the tier 2 category. You don't watch enough football
     
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  14. Coy

    Coy Well-Known Member

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    Dak is not a top 5 QB, no way, I agree with the OP, he's a tier 3 QB who could climb with McCarthy helping him. actually, IMO your description of tier 3 fits Dak perfectly.
     
  15. Hennessy_King

    Hennessy_King Well-Known Member

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    He's tier 2 better than jimmy g and stafford
     
  16. UncleRico

    UncleRico Member

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    Let’s look at this as if all QB’s are being paid this offseason on a one year deal and how much a team should be willing to pay for this upcoming season according to rankings/tier (IMO of course)

    Taking availability, physical skills, football IQ, and leadership into account these are my rankings

    let’s pretend Mahomes will get 40 Mil so let’s start there

    Tier 1:
    1. Mahomes- 40m/year
    2. Rogers- 38.5m/year
    3. Wilson- 35m/year

    Tier 2:
    4. Jackson- 32m/year
    5. Brees- 32m/year
    6. Ryan-31m/year
    7. Dak- 31m/year
    8. Watson- 31m/year
    9. Wentz- 31m/year

    10. Garrapalo- 28m/year
    11. Stafford- 25m/year
    12. Cousins- 24m/year
    13. Brady- 24myear
    13. Roethlisberger- 22m/year
    14. Goff- 22m/year
    15. Rivers- 21m/year

    I believe these are fair market value evaluations
     
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  17. UncleRico

    UncleRico Member

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    And by 2022 there will be no more Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger, and Rivers
     
  18. CowboyFanInLexKy

    CowboyFanInLexKy Well-Known Member

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    Tier 3 and tier 4 QBS?
     
  19. CowboyFanInLexKy

    CowboyFanInLexKy Well-Known Member

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    He is top 5 (# 5 in the tier 2 list of QB's) in my opinion...
     
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  20. dfense

    dfense Well-Known Member

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    First, Wentz and Cousins should be higher. Not a fan of Wentz, but he had game winning drives that mattered.

    Second, I loved Romo more for his last minute pull a win out of your *** clutch play. Dak simply has not shown that ability. It's not a hate hate thing. That whole argument when someone points out Dak's flaws it's because they are Romo lovers is just dumb. What are they wrong about? He's not very good passing inside the 10. Can't throw the fade in the end zone. He started the year out great, but then same ol same ol last 5 or 6 games. Late on reads, throws behind guys on crossing routes, really inaccurate on throws over 20 yards. Could have won at least two more games that were there to be taken and from a clean pocket, can't hit a wide open WR running up the sideline. Don't you just want to break your TV set when you see that? He could not mount a game winning drive this year. Not any. Even went 3 and out once or twice. I really thought he was turning the corner through the first couple games. But he is what he is.

    So Titans didn't have a franchise QB. But they have a good D and a great RB and Oline. But their coach had the balls to see Mariota ain't it and replaced him with an accurate passer (70% 117qb rating) who can make all the throws and look at them now. QB matters.
     

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