Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks

[playit12]

I'm not posting the whole article here, but someone else with better cut and paste abilities is welcome too...

Football Outsiders - Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
by Jason McKinley

Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.

Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory” following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.

... Skipping to the good stuff ...

Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb’s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.

Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Wins Losses Quarterback
1 19 28 Jake Plummer
2 19 29 Peyton Manning
2 19 29 Vinny Testaverde
4 13 8 Tom Brady
5 15 23 Jon Kitna
6 17 30 Kerry Collins
7 12 15 Donovan McNabb
8 10 5 Marc Bulger
9 10 12 Jake Delhomme
9 10 12 Jay Fiedler

Table 2. Bottom 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Wins Losses Quarterback
153 1 10 Tim Rattay
154 3 13 Kelly Holcomb
155 1 11 Danny Kanell
156 0 11 Patrick Ramsey
157 5 18 Tony Banks
158 2 14 Jeff George
159 5 19 Kurt Warner
160 4 20 Brian Griese
161 5 23 Steve Beuerlein
162 14 39 Mark Brunell


Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 51 14 Tony Dungy
2 48 13 Dennis Green
3 32 5 Bill Belichick
4 40 13 Bill Parcells
5 27 5 Mike Martz
6 35 11 Jim Fassel
7 47 18 Mike Shanahan
8 28 8 Jim Haslett
9 44 17 Bill Cowher
10 27 8 Brian Billick

 

[playit12]

At the risk of bumping my own post...

there was plenty of interesting statistical analysis in the comments over where this was originally posted. For those without the math degrees I thought I would paraphrase some of it here to help explain the rankings.

First... QB's generally lead their team back from 8 point deficits in the 4th Quarter about 31% of the time. Therefor the QBs were ranked by their ability to consistently beat that average. So a guy that has only lead his team to 2 more wins than would be predicted by the 31% average would be ranked lower than one that has done it 4 times. Of course, this gives added weight to players that have had more oppurtunities. That's why you see Testeverde over Brady and that's why Big Ben isn't even on the list (not enough tries).

There is some merit to this... If a guy only has one chance at coming from behind and wins he looks like the best comeback QB of all time! A 100% winning percentage. Of course, in reality, it's not very statistically interesting. There is no reason to believe that he'd repeat because he certainly hasn't played enough to prove that he can. Therefor this stat is looking to rank guys that have played consistenly above average for a long period of time.

I think that's the best way to look at these rankings. The guys at the top have lead their teams to more wins than an average QB would do.

On the other hand, Brunell has lost more games (then another average QB would have lost) in the past 10 years than any other QB in the league.

 

[royhitshard]

Brunell=not good.

 

[fortdick]

Why pick an arbitrary time period of 10 years? Why not look at 5 years, or 20 years? Another reason to say stats are damned lies!

 

[playit12]

Why pick an arbitrary time period of 10 years? Why not look at 5 years, or 20 years? Another reason to say stats are damned lies!

Only play by play stats that are available. Most of their stats are limited to 1996 and beyond because of that.

 

[Kangaroo]

Who cares I liked how Troy did it instead of waiting to the 4th Qtr kick them in the 3rd qtr so hard they can't come back and they have no heart left to come back.

4th QB comebacks are so over rated they tend to mean the QB played like crap 90% of the game that put them in the boat they where in.

This is not always the case sometimes both teams are playing real while but a lot of times it is quite the opposite.

So what ever

 

[jimmy40]

I'm not posting the whole article here, but someone else with better cut and paste abilities is welcome too...

Football Outsiders - Quarterbacks and Fourth Quarter Comebacks
by Jason McKinley

Competitive balance defines the NFL. Most games are still in doubt in the fourth quarter. Since 1996, 1,474 out of 2,598 regular season and postseason games have featured a team trailing by eight points or less in possession of the ball in the fourth quarter. In 603 of those 1,474 games, the trailing team won. Therefore, nearly a quarter of all victories in the last decade have been the result of late and dramatic rallies.

Quarterbacks are associated most strongly with comebacks. How many times was it said that John Elway “willed his team to victory” following a come-from-behind rally? Johnny Unitas is often credited with the creation of the two-minute offense. In his Hall of Fame career, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits. In fact, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth quarter deficits in the postseason alone. Hell, Joe Montana overcame multiple fourth-quarter deficits in the postseason even if you only count his two seasons with the Chiefs. Today, quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Brett Favre are discussed in heroic terms mainly because they’re able to pull out victories in situations where mere mortals would surely fail.

... Skipping to the good stuff ...

Over the past decade, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comebacks than Drew Bledsoe. Then again, no quarterback has had more fourth-quarter comeback opportunities than Bledsoe. Are Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback chances more impressive than Donovan McNabb’s 12 in 27? A raw total says that Bledsoe is better, and a straight winning percentage says that McNabb is better. Neither seems like an ideal ranking tool.

Table 1. Top 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Wins Losses Quarterback
1 19 28 Jake Plummer
2 19 29 Peyton Manning
2 19 29 Vinny Testaverde
4 13 8 Tom Brady
5 15 23 Jon Kitna
6 17 30 Kerry Collins
7 12 15 Donovan McNabb
8 10 5 Marc Bulger
9 10 12 Jake Delhomme
9 10 12 Jay Fiedler

Table 2. Bottom 10 quarterbacks at comebacks since 1996
Rank Wins Losses Quarterback
153 1 10 Tim Rattay
154 3 13 Kelly Holcomb
155 1 11 Danny Kanell
156 0 11 Patrick Ramsey
157 5 18 Tony Banks
158 2 14 Jeff George
159 5 19 Kurt Warner
160 4 20 Brian Griese
161 5 23 Steve Beuerlein
162 14 39 Mark Brunell


Table 3. Top 10 coaches at holding a lead since 1996
Rank Coach Wins Losses
1 51 14 Tony Dungy
2 48 13 Dennis Green
3 32 5 Bill Belichick
4 40 13 Bill Parcells
5 27 5 Mike Martz
6 35 11 Jim Fassel
7 47 18 Mike Shanahan
8 28 8 Jim Haslett
9 44 17 Bill Cowher
10 27 8 Brian Billick

So Dennis Green is a better coach at holding a lead than Bill Parcells? Thanks for proving once again that stats are for geeks, losers and agents.

 

[playit12]

So Dennis Green is a better coach at holding a lead than Bill Parcells? Thanks for proving once again that stats are for geeks, losers and agents.

That's kind of an odd line... I could understand you saying that this doesn't prove that Green is a better coach, but saying what you said is a bit like this...

Bledsoe passed for 3639 yards last year and Brunell passed for 3050 yards, so Bledsoe threw for more yards? Just proves that stats are for geeks.

All the article says is that if you take all of those coaches and add up their fourth quarter chances where they were holding onto a lead, that Green did better. Doesn't mean he's a better coach, but does mean that he's better at holding on to a lead.

 

[Established1971]

Why pick an arbitrary time period of 10 years? Why not look at 5 years, or 20 years? Another reason to say stats are damned lies!

the whole 4th quarter comeback thing to me needs to be refined. It should be that you have to comeback within the last 6 minutes or something. I am not too impressed if the 4th quarter begins and the score is 21-20 and the team with 20 ends up winning, big deal.

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Jake "the snake" at #1...

 

[hailvictory]

God some of you guys are still so bitter, get over it....brunell could be the worst comeback qb of all time, and he still threw two perfect bombs to ruin the Ring of Fame game

 

[burmafrd]

The whole point of the discussion is that stats do not tell the whole story; only part of it. Now if some moronic skins troll wants to whine about something thats his problem.

 

[jimmy40]

That's kind of an odd line... I could understand you saying that this doesn't prove that Green is a better coach, but saying what you said is a bit like this...

Bledsoe passed for 3639 yards last year and Brunell passed for 3050 yards, so Bledsoe threw for more yards? Just proves that stats are for geeks.

All the article says is that if you take all of those coaches and add up their fourth quarter chances where they were holding onto a lead, that Green did better. Doesn't mean he's a better coach, but does mean that he's better at holding on to a lead.

How big a lead did they have. Did they both have 7 point leads going into the fourth quarter? Did Green have a better offense and bigger leads? Did Parcells? Did Green coach to rely on good defense and win close games? Did Parcells? If you're going to use stats to say someone was better than someone else at something then break the stats down to show everything, not just some BS that Green was better at holding fourth quarter leads.
Was Emmitt a better running back than Walter Payton? The stats say yes. Could Emmitt have gotten the same amount of yards as Walter playing on the Bears teams that Walter played on? Hmmmmmmm. We'll never know because stats never tell the whole story.
Stats.:bang2:

 

[dargonking999]

I laugh at all this, because to me, i would much rather my team just whopp azz in the first 3 quarters, then there would be no reason for 4 quarters come backs

 

[playit12]

How big a lead did they have. Did they both have 7 point leads going into the fourth quarter? Did Green have a better offense and bigger leads? Did Parcells? Did Green coach to rely on good defense and win close games? Did Parcells? If you're going to use stats to say someone was better than someone else at something then break the stats down to show everything, not just some BS that Green was better at holding fourth quarter leads.
Was Emmitt a better running back than Walter Payton? The stats say yes. Could Emmitt have gotten the same amount of yards as Walter playing on the Bears teams that Walter played on? Hmmmmmmm. We'll never know because stats never tell the whole story.
Stats.:bang2:

The stat is if a team is ever less than 8 points behind and then comes back to win. Thus, even if the team started the quarter down by 40 and came back and won they would still be counted. Same true if it was only 1 point. It also measures teams that go down at some point in the fourth.

I understand the critism about it being only the last 6 minutes... but that's rather arbitrary as well... good coaches might be able to control the clock the whole last 6 minutes for instance.

Again.. not saying it makes him a better coach... it just means that statistically Green is better at holding onto a lead that he has at some point in the fourth quarter when the other team is in striking distance since 1996.

Personally I look at it like this... Regardless of how Green as done, Parcells has certainly proven that he's very good at holding a lead too.

 

[playit12]

How big a lead did they have. Did they both have 7 point leads going into the fourth quarter? Did Green have a better offense and bigger leads? Did Parcells? Did Green coach to rely on good defense and win close games? Did Parcells? If you're going to use stats to say someone was better than someone else at something then break the stats down to show everything, not just some BS that Green was better at holding fourth quarter leads.
Was Emmitt a better running back than Walter Payton? The stats say yes. Could Emmitt have gotten the same amount of yards as Walter playing on the Bears teams that Walter played on? Hmmmmmmm. We'll never know because stats never tell the whole story.
Stats.:bang2:

A little more...

With regards to the Emmitt v Payton comment... If I added up the number of yards per game in the 4th for each player and then found that Emmitt out ran Payton on average in the 4th quarters of games, I'd feel confortable saying that Emmitt was a more productive (yard wise) back in the 4th quarter. That doesn't mean he's a better or worse Back. It means exactly what it says...

There is nothing wrong with stats. People that seem to have the biggest problem with them are the same people that try to say they mean something that they don't. Take what they say on their face and try to objectively decide how important that attribute is. If the statistical ability to maintain a 4th quarter lead isn't as important to you as the ability to go into the 4th quarter leading... then fine... Weight the attribute accordingly.

 

[iceberg]

So Dennis Green is a better coach at holding a lead than Bill Parcells? Thanks for proving once again that stats are for geeks, losers and agents.

translated this sounds like "if the stats don't say what i want, they're wrong!!!"

that gets old too.

 

[Zaxor]

Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback


I realize that teammates and other things factor into it but you need your guy to win half these things... better 3/4 or more... but at least half

Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback that is pretty bad..I'm not very good at math but isn't that like just a 1/4 of the games...

 

[playit12]

Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback


I realize that teammates and other things factor into it but you need your guy to win half these things... better 3/4 or more... but at least half

Bledsoe’s 19 wins in 61 comeback that is pretty bad..I'm not very good at math but isn't that like just a 1/4 of the games...

More like 31%. Just over the NFL average (Barely).

Of course he played on a lot of bad teams...