Question for the "let's let Lawrence walk" crowd

[ABQCOWBOY]

We have plenty of cap. As long as DLaw doesn't want crazy money, he'll be signed.

I'm pretty sure he is going to want top money for his position. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am.

 

[btcutter]

We draft one, just like how we got DLaw

That's how we got Taco too. Now you got nada if no one can fill the void. Then we be chasing our tails in the draft again for another war daddy. People forget that even drafting a DE in the 1st round has a high probability of bust. There's a reason why pass rushers get paid in FA.

 

[Corso]

I would like the Defensive Line to get better, not worse.

 

[panchucko]

We draft one, just like how we got DLaw

Maybe we get another taco

 

[SSoup]

But even in the tag and trade scenario, you are creating a hole at DE. And that's the real underlying question here for those that are willing to not have Lawrence on the team in 2019.

What are you going to do at DE? And no, saying it will be fine with Gregory, Charlton and Armstrong isn't much of a plan. I've said myself, if you could tag him and get a #1 pick for him, sure, explore that. But you also better have a plan in place to fill what would be a massive hole on a defense that finally was better than some of the slop we saw the previous years.

Well, there's a reasonable chance of Lawrence disappearing on us like he's done 40% of the time in his career. So, while I understand you trying to spin this as a choice between Lawrence reliably playing at his best and most productive versus some sketchy unknown, the truth is that Lawrence is a less safe bet than you're pretending. But whatever.

If I was dead-set on not signing him to a long deal, I'd just tag him and enjoy one more season of his services in 2019 (while simultaneously preparing plans to replace him down the road). Because there's no sense in letting go of him before we have to unless someone pries him from us with a rich trade offer (like a 1st rounder in 2019 draft in a territory of the draft where we think there will be pass-rush talent available).

If we let Lawrence suit up for us this year under the franchise tag, we spend a mid-rounder this year and a 1st rounder next year on nice pass-rushers to add to the stable (and hopefully, with another season of development under their belts, the internal options will have put in work and been coached up to the point where they look like they're champing at the bit to get more playing time anyway), I think we weather losing him in 2020 much better than if we lose him this year.

But obviously this presumes the team is looking at him as a poor bet to be an elite pass-rusher 4 or 5 years from now, and they're trying to avoid locking themselves into a bad contract. For all we know, though, the team believes he's amazing and that he'll always be amazing, and they're happy to pay him like he's the best in the league. I suspect that's the way our front office is approaching it, given their willful blindness when it comes to dealing with veterans they like personally.

 

[cowboyblue22]

Has he said he won’t play under the tag again?

YES AND WONT HAVE SURGERY

 

[mattjames2010]

I'm pretty sure he is going to want top money for his position. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am.

For a 4-3 DE, that's not going to kill our cap.

Having an RB, WR, and QB all asking for top dollar - that's going to hurt our cap.

 

[ShiningStar]

you can load this team up with talent ad lose ad WE HAVE DONE THAT. Why are some fans obessed with aking good players waste their careers here?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

For a 4-3 DE, that's not going to kill our cap.

Having an RB, WR, and QB all asking for top dollar - that's going to hurt our cap.

And a top cover corner, as well as Collins, Jaylon and Gregory in 2020. No, I don't think we can afford to consider paying out contracts like that for even DLaw. Not unless you have already decided that you are not signing somebody who can create cap space, like Zeke etc.

 

[gmoney112]

Lol, Tyrone Crawford. I actually like him more than most, but he's not picking up the slack from DLaw and he's going to be 30 this year. I'd actually be looking for his replacement so I could re-negotiate his contract next year.

Taco is a question mark and I'm probably one of the few people who've given him the benefit of the doubt on here. There is a not insignificant chance that he ends up being completely mediocre at best, and a bust at worse.

Who didn't like reading about Armstrong when barely any of us knew anything about him? I bet most of us were like, "sweet sleeper prospect!!", but let's be honest, anyone actually relying on him for their pass rush should be considered negligent.

The only way I let DLaw walk is, I can actually get a 1st for him, AND I have plans with a good chance of actually coming to fruition of beefing up the DL with savings. This includes a 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, and potential 5 year plan. Because if you're going to do it right, you're going to be potentially relying on short term contracts and possible older players to bridge the gaps in FA. This could actually be okay, but it requires some nuance and touch that I don't really think they're capable of in FA.

For instance, if we got a 1st, and signed a 3Tech, value older DE, and drafted well taking a DE/DT as BPA, hopefully getting some good BPA value on DL in this draft. We would really need to get decent value at our FA acquisitions. That would make or break us, and our "value purchases" in FA precedent is pretty bad.

So, while it could be possible, and hell, maybe even smart if you have a a bunch of statistics dudes who have street smarts and know exactly what the market rates and contract structures should be, I don't think we do. Nothing really in our past suggests we do. When's the last time we had a FA that actually ended up being good value? The DT Woods? Does that guy even count?

We have drafted well. We are not very good in FA.

The real odds are that Clark stays in Seattle, and Graham goes to another team. Or you're going to overpay for Graham to get him in Dallas. You could, but the "Hodor.. he's going to accept less than market value when teams have a ton of cap, just to play in Dallas crowd" are just on drugs. That's why FA now is the wild west nowadays and a juggling act. If you're going to overpay, which can even be smart in certain conditions, you better get value and have a multiyear plan that fuses together.

Taco and Armstrong are two hopefuls at this point. Crawford is probably right on the edge of value, with a limited lifespan at his current rate. Gregory has potential but could go up in a cloud of smoke. Collins is in his last year, and Woods looks good but he's limited.

When you objectively look at the situation, yikes. There is some potential here, but another year and this could be a very, very ugly situation. Especially if DLaw walks and we don't get anything for him, and sign older dudes to bridge contracts.

If it's me? The only real option is getting a first rounder in return, and I'd be using my resources in the Cowboys FO to figure relative contract #s to judge with some super nerds I have running analytics on FAs to hopefully get max value, signing 2-3 guys on the DL in his place.

That's really the only way I see us actually moving on, without being a cluster like the WR position was going into the season. I don't really trust us to get great value on one DL, much less 2-3. And relying on a bunch of question marks is a good way to waste a season, when for once you have a talented young team and look solid capwise.

 

[Corso]

Lol, Tyrone Crawford. I actually like him more than most, but he's not picking up the slack from DLaw and he's going to be 30 this year. I'd actually be looking for his replacement so I could re-negotiate his contract next year.

Taco is a question mark and I'm probably one of the few people who've given him the benefit of the doubt on here. There is a not insignificant chance that he ends up being completely mediocre at best, and a bust at worse.

Who didn't like reading about Armstrong when barely any of us knew anything about him? I bet most of us were like, "sweet sleeper prospect!!", but let's be honest, anyone actually relying on him for their pass rush should be considered negligent.

The only way I let DLaw walk is, I can actually get a 1st for him, AND I have plans with a good chance of actually coming to fruition of beefing up the DL with savings. This includes a 1 year, 2 year, 3 year, and potential 5 year plan. Because if you're going to do it right, you're going to be potentially relying on short term contracts and possible older players to bridge the gaps in FA. This could actually be okay, but it requires some nuance and touch that I don't really think they're capable of in FA.

For instance, if we got a 1st, and signed a 3Tech, value older DE, and drafted well taking a DE/DT as BPA, hopefully getting some good BPA value on DL in this draft. We would really need to get decent value at our FA acquisitions. That would make or break us, and our "value purchases" in FA precedent is pretty bad.

So, while it could be possible, and hell, maybe even smart if you have a a bunch of statistics dudes who have street smarts and know exactly what the market rates and contract structures should be, I don't think we do. Nothing really in our past suggests we do. When's the last time we had a FA that actually ended up being good value? The DT Woods? Does that guy even count?

We have drafted well. We are not very good in FA.

The real odds are that Clark stays in Seattle, and Graham goes to another team. Or you're going to overpay for Graham to get him in Dallas. You could, but the "Hodor.. he's going to accept less than market value when teams have a ton of cap, just to play in Dallas crowd" are just on drugs. That's why FA now is the wild west nowadays and a juggling act. If you're going to overpay, which can even be smart in certain conditions, you better get value and have a multiyear plan that fuses together.

Taco and Armstrong are two hopefuls at this point. Crawford is probably right on the edge of value, with a limited lifespan at his current rate. Gregory has potential but could go up in a cloud of smoke. Collins is in his last year, and Woods looks good but he's limited.

When you objectively look at the situation, yikes. There is some potential here, but another year and this could be a very, very ugly situation. Especially if DLaw walks and we don't get anything for him, and sign older dudes to bridge contracts.

If it's me? The only real option is getting a first rounder in return, and I'd be using my resources in the Cowboys FO to figure relative contract #s to judge with some super nerds I have running analytics on FAs to hopefully get max value, signing 2-3 guys on the DL in his place.

That's really the only way I see us actually moving on, without being a cluster like the WR position was going into the season. I don't really trust us to get great value on one DL, much less 2-3. And relying on a bunch of question marks is a good way to waste a season, when for once you have a talented young team and look solid capwise.

Good post. I think my thoughts align with yours. Which makes it an even better post!

 

[OmerV]

Here's another question. If Gregory was only able to get 6 sacks despite Lawrence drawing all the double team attention, how is he going to fare without Gregory?

 

[ShiningStar]

Here's another question. If Gregory was only able to get 6 sacks despite Lawrence drawing all the double team attention, how is he going to fare without Gregory?

we dont know, i wish we could bring in a new DL coach and make KR DC now.

 

[Corso]

we dont know, i wish we could bring in a new DL coach and make KR DC now.

I like Marinara (on purpose) as DL coach. It's not like he's had a ton of consecutive time to work with Gregory and he also hasn't exactly been gifted with tons of talent over the years here.

Richard at DC? I can dig that. You could tell his influence last year with the more blitzing, but who wouldn't blitz more with a machine like Jaylon?

 

[mattjames2010]

And a top cover corner, as well as Collins, Jaylon and Gregory in 2020. No, I don't think we can afford to consider paying out contracts like that for even DLaw. Not unless you have already decided that you are not signing somebody who can create cap space, like Zeke etc.

Zeke would have to be the odd man out here. This place loves them some Zeke, he's a jersey seller, but he's an RB in a passing league. You have to keep this defense together even if it means losing a couple skill position players.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

We let Lawrence walk.

What do we do at DE? Some seemed to suggest it was OK because we had Irving in the wings. Well, so much for that. You can't head into the season with your DE depth chart being Charlton, Armstrong, Gregory and sometimes Crawford (who is a better interior player than outside player). That would be a bottom half of the league DE group, at best.

Consider this. WITH LAWRENCE, the Cowboys were middle of the pack in sacks and pressures. They were actually in the bottom third of teams in terms of Football Outsiders sack rate. Where do you think those numbers go with no Lawrence? Or do you just say, "hey, we weren't all that great at getting after the QB with Lawrence, so who cares if we still stink at it in 2019?"

What should Dallas do if Lawrence is not part of this team in 2019?

And note, I am not opposed to letting Lawrence walk............. as long as the franchise has a plan in place to compensate for his loss. They can't pull a WR offseason 2018 ploy where they will get "production by committee."

its a matter of what's best for the team. You don't just let the top FA walk because he wants high money. are you about making superbowls or are you Cincinnati? it all depends on how much he wants, and who we have to sign to make the team better. is letting Lawrence walk and sign a few others make the team better? then you do....but IMO, we need a DE that can rush the QB, they are at a premium, so you pay him because it makes the whole defense better. letting him go, and counting on Gregory, Smith and LVE being better so defense will be fine, is staying stagnant, not getting better.

 

[Corso]

Zeke would have to be the odd man out here. This place loves them some Zeke, he's a jersey seller, but he's an RB in a passing league. You have to keep this defense together even if it means losing a couple skill position players.

Man... and he's such a good player. He makes DC's change their game-plans... he is an elite blocker for a RB... he is a yard gainer even in difficult situations... the team feeds off of him... he is a pass-catcher, but not a great one.

I just hate to lose a player like that. He dictates both his offense and the opposing team's defense, but our previous OC couldn't take advantage of that and continually played right into the DC's hands.

Ah well. Ce la vie.

 

[ShiningStar]

I like Marinara (on purpose) as DL coach. It's not like he's had a ton of consecutive time to work with Gregory and he also hasn't exactly been gifted with tons of talent over the years here.

Richard at DC? I can dig that. You could tell his influence last year with the more blitzing, but who wouldn't blitz more with a machine like Jaylon?

Sorry guy, i just want a DL guy who says "I know, go after the QB" and thats it. Rod isnt that kind of DL coach anymore

 

[Corso]

Sorry guy, i just want a DL guy who says "I know, go after the QB" and thats it. Rod isnt that kind of DL coach anymore

huh... I thought this team played 1 gap and he always focused on get the QB 1st. It's why the Eagles gashed us to no end last year with Irving. And why we don't have a big, fat DT. He wants a go-getter at the 1 tech.
He stopped doing that?

 

[mattjames2010]

Man... and he's such a good player. He makes DC's change their game-plans... he is an elite blocker, for a RB... he is a yard gainer, even in difficult situations... the team feeds off of him... he is a pass-catcher, but not a great one.

I just hate to lose a player like that. He dictates both his offense and the opposing team's defense, but our previous OC couldn't take advantage of that and continually played right into the DC's hands.

Ah well. Ce la vie.

I think in the next couple years, you're going to see the toll of carrying the rock 300 twice in his early career and even being a heavy dose in 2017 in the games he did play is going to start impacting his body. Heck, he doesn't even have the same burst he had in 2016. He also has a lot of mileage from college as well. I think Zeke can be a productive back in the league for a while, I just don't think he's going to be this top 3 RB for much longer. Just too much mileage on his young legs.