Rebuilding Romo - Part II

sago1

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Just took below article off Raphael Vela's blog. Sounds like he believes Romo has accuracy & arm strength similar to Aikman which should allow him to flourish in Jason Garrett's system. Good read at a time where there's little info coming out of VR.

My claim that Jason Garrett will try to make Tony Romo more Troy Aikman-like drew some strong responses. Some readers opined that Romo lacked Aikman’s arm strength. Others claimed Garrett might be trying to make Romo something that he’s not because Aikman was a master of accuracy and Romo could not measure up.

Bunk. I was watching tape of Romo riddling the Colts defense in his 19 for 23 day (football withdrawl strikes hard) and felt strong deja vu. I saw the ball coming out quickly on timing patters. I saw Romo fire darts inside tiny coverage boxes to Jason Witten. I saw Romo deliver three perfect slants to Terry Glenn, which set up a pump and go on Dallas’ winning TD drive.

I saw a guy who looked every bit as accurate at old number eight. Then I decided to see if this was a one-game fluke.

Let’s look at the greater numbers. Here’s Tony’s ‘06 line:

YearAtt.Comp.Comp. %YPATDsInts.Rating
200633722065.38.61191395.1
Only once in his legendary career did Aikman top the 65.3 completion percentage Romo posted last year. And he never approached Romo’s 8.61 yard per attempt. In fact, Aikman never topped 8.0 YPA in any season.

Let’s look more closely at Romo’s season and see how his performances broke down. 2006 can be split into halves.

OpponentAtt.Comp.YardsRush Yds.TDsINTsResultScore
Panthers243627014111Win35-14
Commanders243628411820Loss19-22
Cardinals202930811920Win27-10
Colts192322611401Win21-14
Bucs222930614150Win38-10
That’s an otherworldly five games. Romo stayed within the program, built on his training camp habits of reading and releasing the ball quickly and kept his head. Amazing plays seemed to come in course, but they all appeared natural. He would have been and should have been 5-0 had the Cowboys not committed a dozen penalties and botched a field goal block in Washington.

Then, Romo seemed to buy into his own hype. After his five TD coming out party on Thanksgiving Day, the Romo cool began eroding:
OpponentAtt.Comp.YardsRush Yds.TDsINTsResultScore
Giants203425710002Win23-20
Saints1633249(39)12Loss17-42
Falcons22292789521Win38-28
Eagles14291424112Loss7-23
Lions23323214221Loss31-39
Romo’s dazzling bomb to Witten in the Meadowlands obscured a poor performance. For the first time, blitzes got into his head. He missed open receivers. He tried forcing passes into covered ones and his fundamentals became inconsistent. Bill Parcells told the press post game that QB coach Chris Palmer warned him in the first quarter that Romo was “off the reservation” that day.

Teams began defensing him differently from that point, keeping their ends wide to prevent Romo from rolling out and devastating them with deep balls.

He was also done in by lack of support. Note the rush totals for the three December losses. (I put the Saints total in parenthesis because this is what the Cowboys produced after Julius Jones’ 77 yard rush on the first play from scrimmage.) In every instance the Cowboys could not muster 50 yards against three defenses (the Saints, Eagles and Lions) who struggled stopping the run.

Romo showed his mortality. I doubt many QBs could compensate for such anemic rushing attacks, much less his team’s suddenly porous secondary. Nevertheless, Romo deserves some blame. He undermined a sterling 111 QB rating against Detroit by fumbling three times, twice inside his own 20.

That said, the new system offers the possibilty of reclaiming the early Romo. It will emphasize speed, timing and quick releases. And Romo has demonstated without question that he has the accuracy and arm strength to make it work.

What nobody knows, not even Romo himself, is whether he can match Aikman’s maturity and consistency; Troy put six consecutive seasons together at Romo’s ‘06 level, never mind his Pantheon-quality postseason play.

If you doubt Romo, raise emotional and cognitive questions. He’s got the physical skills to make Troy’s old playbook work.
 

sago1

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Sorry about the screw up with all the numbers -- don't know what happened. You can check out theboysblog.com for a better reading of those numbers.
 

dogunwo

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FuzzyLumpkins;1511084 said:
Aikman was the man come december and january.
Besides his rookie season, when wasnt he "the man"?
 

The Duke

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Romo quick release is perfect for the timing offense of the 90s glory years. It will off set the small drop in arm strength from Troy.

I think Romo's success is going really depend on the Oline improving and running game being decent.
 

Yakuza Rich

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Aikman had a far stronger arm and probably threw a better deep ball, especially on the fade routes. Troy's arm strength was probably comparable to Carson Palmer's of today. Same type of throwing motion, release points, and arm strength. Romo's *throwing mechanics* remind me more of Kelly Holcomb, a quick 3/4 release point.

I'm not convinced that Garrett's offense will be just like Norv's, there'll probably be some similarities.




YAKUZA
 

MichaelWinicki

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Yakuza Rich;1511741 said:
Aikman had a far stronger arm and probably threw a better deep ball, especially on the fade routes. Troy's arm strength was probably comparable to Carson Palmer's of today. Same type of throwing motion, release points, and arm strength. Romo's *throwing mechanics* remind me more of Kelly Holcomb, a quick 3/4 release point.

I'm not convinced that Garrett's offense will be just like Norv's, there'll probably be some similarities.




YAKUZA


Nice analysis Rich.


I honestly can't believe Garrett's would try to make Romo into an "Aikman clone"... I just don't buy it. I'm sure Garrett recognizes that Romo has a different skill set and will develop an offense that best suits him, i.e. Romo.

PLUS look at who's backing up Romo-- Johnson who's much more like Romo than Aikman.

I just don't see this being a passing offense that focuses on deep-drops and 20-yard patterns.
 

theogt

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That Miss Univere bikini contest should do the trick for re-erecting Romo.
 

irvin88

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theogt;1511746 said:
That Miss Univere bikini contest should do the trick for re-erecting Romo.

Isn't he supposed to be at OTA's tomorrow?:lmao:
 

Yakuza Rich

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MichaelWinicki;1511745 said:
I just don't see this being a passing offense that focuses on deep-drops and 20-yard patterns.

I don't either. Vela forgets to show that Norv's offenses today don't run that many deep patterns compared to his Dallas offenses. I think we'll probably see generally things get a little deeper from the WR's (Dallas' offense under Parcells liked to go deep), but Witten is probably the guy they'll stretch the most. I actually think Owens will run less deep routes than he did under Parcells, kind of like having Glenn go deep on the sideline, Witten go deep up the middle and Owens running a lot of intermediate crossing patterns.




YAKUZA
 

percyhoward

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sago1;1511080 said:
Only once in his legendary career did Aikman top the 65.3 completion percentage Romo posted last year. And he never approached Romo’s 8.61 yard per attempt. In fact, Aikman never topped 8.0 YPA in any season.
Romo's yards per attempt last year on 337 attempts was unreal. 8.6 is the kind of number that is normally only put up by QB's who throw a ton of high-percentage passes (Steve Young), or by guys with a low number of attempts (Big Ben, who had fewer than 300 attempts in his first two seasons).

Romo got 8.6 yards per attempt with only 34 receptions from his running backs, meaning he was incredibly accurate throwing down the field.

I would be interested if anybody could come up with a name of another QB who threw 337 passes in a season, with a YPA of 8.6 or more, who did not get at least 60 catches from his running backs. Even 50 catches.

BTW, yards per attempt has a higher correlation with winning than any other passing stat (including passer rating).
 

theogt

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percyhoward;1511754 said:
Romo's yards per attempt last year on 337 attempts was unreal. 8.6 is the kind of number that is normally only put up by QB's who throw a ton of high-percentage passes (Steve Young), or by guys with a low number of attempts (Big Ben, who had fewer than 300 attempts in his first two seasons).

Romo got 8.6 yards per attempt with only 34 receptions from his running backs, meaning he was incredibly accurate throwing down the field.

I would be interested if anybody could come up with a name of another QB who threw 337 passes in a season, with a YPA of 8.6 or more, who did not get at least 60 catches from his running backs. Even 50 catches.

BTW, yards per attempt has a higher correlation with winning than any other passing stat (including passer rating).
He had the highest percentage of 20+ yard passes per attempt in the league.
 

percyhoward

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theogt;1511758 said:
He had the highest percentage of 20+ yard passes per attempt in the league.
That's a good stat because it proves that he wasn't dumping off short passes to RB's or anybody else.

Historically, I don't think any QB has ever had a YPA that high for a season, with that many attempts, without extensive use of the backs as receivers.

Edit: without going back to Otto Graham, or somebody like that
 

irvin88

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percyhoward;1511763 said:
That's a good stat because it proves that he wasn't dumping off short passes to RB's or anybody else.

Historically, I don't think any QB has ever had a YPA that high for a season, with that many attempts, without extensive use of the backs as receivers.

Edit: without going back to Otto Graham, or somebody like that

DAN MARINO IN 1984 !

http://www.danmarino.com/careerstats.htm
 

irvin88

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Chocolate Lab;1511832 said:
To me, that just confirms the importance of the stat. Marino was unreal that year.

Dan Fouts did it in 1983.
 
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