For those of you unfamiliar with the Ring Side Seats concept, essentially this grants you (the reader) an opportunity to view the battle that internally rages between my ears amongst my inner-optimist, pessimist and realist, represented by Me, Myself, and I respectively. The following is my 3-way-split take on the offense and the defense based on what we have observed thus far, be it from training camp video’s or the actual games.
Me
A big part of maintaining an optimistic point-of-view is the frame through which you choose to view any given situation. In general, that frame is established by your mood. If you are in a good mood, you see the positive aspects of life, whereas, when you are in a bad mood, you likely are to experience the polar opposite. With that in mind, let’s start off with a nice positive thought:
Imagine 31 scouting departments (not belonging to the Cowboys) right now in their quarterback prospect meetings discussing who they want to take an extended look at in the aftermath of witnessing Rush (a UDFA) lead the majority of quarterbacks in the NFL in passer rating / touchdowns / and lack of interceptions in preseason thus far. You have to know at least one scout will ask the question: “So, um, who are the Cowboys scouts looking at?”
Feel better?
Alright, now let’s dive in:
Following Me is Myself…the pessimist. Myself isn’t going to like this very much, but I’m about to flip the script on him and pull an 8 Mile (e.g. take away his ammunition by acknowledging it before he has the opportunity to use it against me). Obviously, Myself is going to focus on the injuries to the rookies and the myriad of suspensions the Cowboys have to weather in the opening section of the season, most notably Zeke.
(There was a fairly compelling argument on why I think Zeke will not be suspended in 2017 here, however, due to space restrictions, I was unable to fit in. Ultimately, I decided to delete it, because the majority of it was a rehash of what most of us already know. Furthermore, my belief in this team does not in any way hinge on Zeke’s availability, rendering an extended dissertation on that situation unnecessary.)
Beyond the Zeke case, there are several other suspended players the Cowboys will have to attempt to replace over the course of the first 4 games. As I understand it, Irving will be out the first 4 games and Moore will be out the first 2. Both Wilson’s and Carrol’s situation is still pending. A pre-trial was recently heard in regards to Carroll therefore I have no idea when the league will make its move but considering Anthony’s court case will not be heard until the end of October, it very well may be his subsequent suspension will not be enforced until the latter half of the season, around about the same time Hitchens will be returning from injury.
It is admittedly tough to gloss over those facts, but let’s start with the obvious point: Who among those four players is mission critical? I submit to you for your consideration none of them are. While the Cowboys will absolutely need all hands on deck when they face the likes of the Raiders, Falcons, Packers, Seahawks, etc, over the course of the first four games, I believe the Cowboys will survive.
Even without the benefit of having Irving and Moore in the lineup, while the Cowboys may continue to struggle with getting to the quarterback, in turn, I suspect the offensive opposition will struggle to establish a run game. It starts up front: Lawrence, Collins, Paea, and Crawford are shaping up to be a dynamic run-stopping fearsome foursome. Penetrating the pocket in a timely fashion on a consistent basis may allude that group, but shutting down the run will be their specialty…especially when the opposition attempts to run between the tackles.
The linebacking core at the moment is unsettled due to the pending suspension of Wilson, the current injury to Hitchens, and the deliberate approach to snap count the Cowboys have implemented for Jaylon. That said, the majority of the time, the Cowboys defense will be in the Nickel formation which means besides Lee, the Cowboys only need one more player they can count on. Jaylon appears to be the future of that particular position, however, in the meantime, Marinelli has already proven he can make it work with Durant, Hitchens and Wilson supplemented by a sprinkle of Jaylon here and there. While the latter players may be considered liabilities in coverage at times, as run stoppers, each and every player has demonstrated the ability to fill the gaps and hold the point of attack.
Behind the linebackers the Cowboys have a group of willing and able hitters. There will be no business decisions among this group; Marinelli’s approach demands aggression and benches loafs.
The ability to shut down a run game, particularly for the Cowboys, is significant and should not be in any way overlooked. You may recall a mission the front office sited for the defense was to generate more turnovers. To that end, the Cowboys brass has made several moves to accomplish that objective. It began with the Cowboys allowing a significant portion of their secondary to walk via Free Agency. To be clear, that move will not pay immediate dividends; on the contrary, it will hurt more than it helps in the early going, as the rookies and Free Agent acquisition Carroll learn the system and get comfortable.
But over the course of the upcoming season, I am predicting that this defense will gel. Fortunately, in the early going of the season, the defense in most games will be afforded a considerable degree of leeway as the Cowboys offense will force the issue and stack touchdowns on touchdowns forcing the offense to become one-dimensional by necessity. Eventually, however, as this group of defenders comes together as a unit, they will demand a one-dimensional approach by merit of long down and distance.
Again, I admit the oppositions quarterback may sleep soundly in the days leading up to face the Cowboys defense, but the offensive coordinator is whole nutter thang. If you are curious why, you need only take in a game or two of the Giants. Even with the additional weapons the Giants have placed around Eli, without the benefit of a run game, they continue to struggle scoring on a consistent basis. It’s the nature of the game; if the defense knows you want to pass, and, in addition, knows you cannot run effectively even when you really want to, they don’t have to commit secondary resources to the box. As a result, passing becomes dangerous and the turnovers typically ensue; Eli did throw 4 times as many interceptions as did Dak last year….just saying.
For good reason, I have largely focused on the Cowboys defense. I honestly don’t think I need to hold anyone’s hand and lead them to the oasis that is the Cowboys offense. Even without Zeke, this team will be close to impossible to stop from reaching the endzone. Dak was great last year. Somehow he is better this year. And at the end of the day, that is the most significant reason why this fan base has little to fear over the next 5 years.
In a recent post where I was discussing the leadership qualities of Dak and Lee, I quoted Alexander the Great…and was tempted to use it again here. But in an effort to not be too redundant, I decided instead to draw on the wisdom of Napoleon Bonaparte, whose quote admittedly is awfully reminiscent of Alexander’s famous assertion on leadership:
If you build an army of 100 lions and their leader is a dog, in any fight, the lions will die like a dog. But if you build an army of 100 dogs and their leader is a lion, the dogs will fight like a lion.
Nuff said?
Myself
Very clever, me. Of course, fortunately for myself, I need not rely merely on injuries and suspensions to fuel my campaign for predicting yet another disappointing Cowboys season. There are issues aplenty to pick from. As I’ve expressed in previous additions of “Ring Side Seats,” I concede the point that the Cowboys are on the precipice of greatness. I whole heartedly believe that with the advent of Dak, this team will reach a Super Bowl at some point in his career. I simply don’t see it happening in 2017 and here’s why:
Let’s start with that horrendous schedule. In my opinion, and to the Cowboys benefit, they are being pitched a soft ball in the first quarter of their schedule. However, following that (and admittedly the bulk of their suspensions) things get a bit dicey for our beloved Cowboys. Conveniently ignored by me above, following those first four games, the Cowboys face several top tier contenders. The Packers, Falcons, Raiders, and Seahawks will all test the ascension of Dak from year 1 to year 2 and the cohesion of the Cowboys collective defense. Whereas in many meetings this season the Cowboys can rely on their offense to mask the problems of their defense, against those four teamed with their 6 meetings against divisional foes, could prove to be the Cowboys undoing in the end. Even if the Cowboys manage to split wins against the Eagles, Commanders and Giants, if they are unable to win against the aforementioned future playoff teams, that will be 7 losses…which will likely equate to 1 loss too many to win the NFCE and/or make the playoffs.
While me unwisely chose to focus on how little of an impact this collection of suspensions will have on those first four game, he left a lot of meat on the bone in terms of building value in what players are left on the roster. As a favor to me, I will happily fill in that gap.
As has become the norm in the days leading up to the beginning of a season, the Cowboys are hinging their hopes on hope, as opposed to tangible evidence that this team will be really good. Even with Zeke in the lineup for 16 games, the Cowboys still have a fairly nice collection of warts I can point to. The first is simple: The Great Wall of Dallas is missing two bricks out of the 5 that earned the title The Great Wall of Dallas. Me would have you to believe that’s no big deal; so long as we have the big three (Tyron, Zack, and Travis) the Cowboys will be fine.
Really?
Are you sure?
Are you sure you are sure?
Because I really am not. Granted, we have seen some encouraging signs in preseason that the Cowboys will be fine, but remember, that was against vanilla defenses and that was the majority of the time against guys currently practicing their script for their next job: Welcome to McDonalds; how can I help you? And I don’t think I need to remind anyone of the flagfest this offensive line invited into the Cowboys lives throughout preseason.
In the regular season against defenses such as the Giants, Broncos, Raiders, Seahawks, etc., it will be an altogether different ball game. But before I continue on that tact, allow me to quickly dispel this notion that the Cowboys will be just fine without Zeke.
What Zeke brings cannot be duplicated…even if you were to combine the best traits of the 3 remaining running backs on the Cowboys roster into one player, that one player would still fall short of being a Zeke. What the presence of Zeke brings, beyond his God-given talent, is an ability to disguise intent. As it stands, dependent on who the Cowboys send out in a given play, the opposing defense can guess (and do so fairly accurately) what the Cowboys are planning to do. That is a critical disadvantage.
Second, without Zeke on the field, the Cowboys will not have the same reputation that demands a Safety to slide up into the box to prevent the run. Without that, passes over the top (something the Cowboys want to implement more of) will be severely limited and often times perilous. Essentially, what that means is the Cowboys will either have to prove their run game is every bit as dangerous with McFadden (which is very unlikely) or figure out a different way to win. Is anybody confident that Garrett and company can figure out a completely different winning formula?
Speaking for myself (not to be confused with me, though), I don’t.
Perhaps the most compelling piece of evidence working against the Cowboys is the fact that they replaced a secondary that struggled to keep the oppositions passing game in check last season, with has-been Free Agents (Nolan Carroll) and a bunch of rookies of which none were selected where most people find starter-ready players; the first round. Furthermore, and all the more disturbing, is that none of these rookies have managed to stay healthy in preseason. Every player the Cowboys drafted in this year’s draft to address the secondary has spent significant time on the Asthma Field. Still feeling confident?
That combined with a severely depleted linebacking core in the wake of Hitchens recent injury, the pending suspension of Damien, the deliberate process the Cowboys are subjecting Jaylon to, and the injury-waiting-to-happen that is Lee, and I’d say the Cowboys, and by extension the Cowboys faithful, have a collection of issues to worry about that would rival 31 other teams and their loyal fan bases.
As much as we fans would like to ignore the elephants stampeding through this room, we simply cannot…for the exception of me…but no one likes that guy anyway!
I
I’ve said it before; it merits repeating. In today’s NFL the best team doesn’t always win. As is true with most overly-used cliché’s, Any Given Sunday is a phenomenon for a very good reason. It’s why we play the games; winning on paper will never replace winning on the field.
With that truth firmly planted in your mind’s eye, we must as a collective fan base accept reality and just sit back and enjoy the watching experience come what may. It could be a dumpster fire or it could challenge the greatest show on turf. Who knows? What I do know is unlike years in the past where the Cowboys completely fell apart, this iteration stands to be entertaining regardless.
Taking the long view, we as a fanbase should feel extremely fortunate that the Cowboys have found both their franchise QB in Prescott and backup QB in Rush within the confines of two drafts; the latter being a UDFA. The odds of doing that alone are staggering. To do that with a 4th round compensatory pick and…um…well…nothing more is ridiculous luck on a level not previously known in the history of everything that as ever happened in the confines of human consciousness…that’s a really long time, by the way.
In response to that, myself might suggest there are several gaps to address beyond quarterback. But then myself would be overlooking the cardinal rule I addressed at the beginning of this realist point-of-view voyage. What myself meant to say is the Cowboys have several gaps left on paper. The “on paper” aspect of myself’s argument is precisely the reason myself should sit back and watch before myself speaks in such certainties. After all, rare is the season we Cowboys fans don’t get treated to a surprise emergence by a player or two.
The ugly truth about drafting is that every player available is a gamble; from the sure thing variety you typically find at the top of the first in varied amounts to the bottom of the seventh, where drafting players is the equivalent of attempting to win an archery contest while blindfolded, following ten 360 degree turns. Or I could explain it this way: imagine a game of craps where the odds of rolling 7 or 11 decrease exponentially with each roll and you will have a smattering of an understanding what building a team through the draft is like for 32 teams league-wide. It is not easy and the amount of variables ultimately deciding rather or not a player will perform at an NFL-caliber level are far too numerous to count or to narrow down to an exact science.
With that said, even a realist (such as I) can appreciate the recent success the Cowboys have had as of late. The Cowboys found four starters last year in Elliott, Prescott, Collins, and Brown…and that is without considering the potential of Jaylon, Kavon and Rico. Of course, last year the Cowboys were working with the fourth overall selection in most rounds and as such, were set up pretty well to come away with that draft haul. In 2017, the Cowboys were operating under a different set of circumstances with the 28th overall pick and therefore to expect like success in truth is not very realistic. Add to that understanding the unfortunate injuries almost all of the new Cowboys have suffered through this year, and you should be able to accept that a slow start by all of those who have missed significant time is unavoidable.
For me, though, that very well may be one of the most attractive traits of watching the NFL to begin with. For the likes of Chido, Jourdan, Switzer, Woods, and White, we are being granted the opportunity to watch them grow from one game to the next right before our very eyes. And in that growth, as we witnessed in the slow climb from 3rd QB to Backup QB for Rush, we will also see the weak links on this team slowly but surely find the bench in favor of the up-and-comers. Some will show up. Others won’t. But if you have been a Cowboys fan for more than 10 years you know there is a significant difference in the talent the Cowboys acquired before Will McClay took over the scouting department and how drafting has fared since he took the reins.
With the RKG mantra firmly in place, he, along with a dialed in coaching staff and a collection of scouts well-versed in the coaches’ necessary ingredients for success, has transformed the Cowboys from yesteryears iterations. Long gone are the malcontents. In their stead, we see a hungry group of young players who have bought in to Jason’s refrain of getting better every day. Gone is the finger pointing. Gone is the locker room cancers. Gone is the various lockerroom factions that segregated veterans from up and coming talent. Under Dak’s leadership and his boundary-blurring approach to team unity, the Cowboys at the very least finally have a team…and not a collection of individuals.
So make no mistake, this season could easily go either way; we all should accept that reality. But what you won’t see is give up. You won’t see players openly questioning the coach’s decisions/game management surrounded by reports and mediots at their locker following a disappointing loss. You won’t see team derision and in-fighting that last beyond a practice period. And if you do see any of the following from any of the players, you won’t see them on the Cowboys roster for long. That, at the very least, is a significant shift from the various pitfalls and quicksand the Cowboys franchise found themselves stuck in up until about 5 to 6 years ago when Garrett took over what was at the time a capsized ship peopled by players that quit on Wade Phillips. This team has problems...but their current problems would ROTF&LOL at the Cowboys problems of 7 years ago.
Thoughts?
